BEC中级阅读：英国制造业增长停滞

周五公布的一份调查显示，由于出口订单减少，而高油价将企业成本推至三年高位，英国1月份制造业增长几乎停滞。

Growth in the manufacturing sector slowed almost to a standstill in January as export orders fell, but high oil prices drove companies’ costs to a three year high, a survey showed on Friday.

调查结果表明了英国央行面临的政策困境。尽管有迹象显示，英国通胀率近期有可能升至远高于目标的水平，但预计英国央行下周将降息25个基点。

The findings illustrate the policy dilemma facing the Bank of England, which is expected to cut interest rates by quarter of a point next week despite signs that inflation is likely to rise well above target in the short term.

英国皇家采购与供应学会(CIPS)和研究机构NTC表示，今年1月，其制造业活动指数从去年12月份的52.4降至50.6，远低于分析师的预测，而且是两年多来的最弱水平。该数字若低于50，将意味着制造业活动处于收缩状态。

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and NTC, the research group, said their index of manufacturing activity fell from 52.4 in December to 50.6 in January, well below analysts’ forecasts and the weakest in more than two years. A reading below 50 would mean activity was contracting.

尽管英镑贬值，但由于美国经济趋软，英国制造业出口订单自2005年以来首次减少，制造商还报告称，投资品需求下滑速度达到2001年9月以来的最快水平。

Export orders fell for the first time since 2005 as the US economy softened, despite the depreciation in sterling, and manufacturers also reported the fastest decline in demand for investment goods since September 2001.

“这支持我们的观点，即在短期内，英镑贬值带来的刺激作用，不足以抵消全球经济减速的影响，”资本经济(Capital Economics)的保罗?代尔斯(Paul Dales)表示。他预期今年英国制造业将进入衰退。

“This supports our view that any boost from the fall in the pound will not offset the impact from the global slowdown in the near-term,” said Paul Dales at Capital Economics, who expects the sector to enter recession this year.

本次调查显示，英国制造商正准备迎接一段艰难时期，它们纷纷削减成品和原材料库存，并在去年增加就业岗位后开始裁员。

The survey suggests manufacturers are preparing for a tough period, running down stocks of finished goods and raw materials, and cutting jobs after a year of rising employment.

不过，企业定价能力已升至有记录以来的最高水平。今年1月，出厂价格指数从去年12月的55.6升至57.9，反映出随着高油价推动化学品、能源和运输成本上升，生产资料价格以更快速度上涨。

Yet companies’ pricing power has increased to the highest level on record. The index reading for factory gate inflation rose from 55.6 in December to 57.9 in January, reflecting even sharper increases in input prices as higher oil prices drove up chemicals, energy and transport costs.