格林斯潘稳坐2005年

　　经济学家们称，正当美国经济从2001的衰退中走出来之际，格林斯潘明年仍会稳坐在美联储主席的职位上，以保持货币政策的连续性。“今日美国”报纸对全美的一些经济学家们所做的季度调查显示，被访的54人中有72%称预计78岁的格林斯潘将会在2006年退休；其中19%认为他会在明年离去。他们称格林斯潘的决定将会部份地影响美国经济走势。布什于上周提名格林斯潘第五次担任联储主席。但格林斯潘在美联储委员会（Fed Board）的任期在2006年1月31日截止。在美联储委员会的任职是担任主席职位的重要前提。尽管如此，格林斯潘可能不会离开这么快，他可能会等到继任者得到提名后再离去。但有9%的经济学家认为，格林斯潘的任职期会超过2006年。 　　已有许多潜在的美联储主席后选人浮出水面，但至今无一人十分确定。其中包括联储付主席Roger Ferguson、理事Ben Bernanke、财政部副部长John Taylor、现白宫经济顾问委员会主席曼昆（Gregory Mankiw）、前任财政部长鲁滨（By Barbara Hagenbaugh）, USA TODAY

　　WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will likely stay on the job through 2005, providing continuity at the U.S. central bank as the economy rebuilds following the 2001 recession, economists say.

　　In USA TODAY's quarterly survey of economists from throughout the USA, 72% of the 54 respondents questioned May 14-20 said they expect Greenspan, 78, will wait to retire until 2006--when his term on the Fed Board ends. Nineteen percent expect him to leave next year.

　　Economists say Greenspan's decision will partly hinge on how the economy progresses.

　　"I think he wants to leave on a high note," says Wachovia economist Mark Vitner of Charlotte, noting Greenspan hardly seems itching to leave. "This guy seems like he likes the job so much that they'll have to wheel him out of there."

　　Says Jim Meil, chief economist at Eaton Corp. in Cleveland: "There are certain jobs that you do in life and you do well at a senior's age ... a central banker and a symphony orchestra conductor. The intellectual job keeps you going."

　　President Bush last week nominated Greenspan to a fifth term as chairman of the Fed. But Greenspan's term on the Fed Board, a prerequisite for the chairmanship, ends Jan. 31, 2006, at which point term limits will kick in.

　　But he might not be out the door so quickly. Greenspan could stay until his successor is named, which could be a lengthy process. That has some economists expecting the Fed chairman, who has served since 1987, will stay on long past his term end. Nine percent of the economists surveyed said Greenspan will remain at the helm past 2006.

　　Greenspan has built up respect and confidence during his time at the helm of the U.S. central bank. He is credited with helping tame inflationary pressures and overseeing the longest economic expansion in U.S. history during the 1990s. Greenspan's departure could shake investors, so the timing is important.

　　"Especially when the Fed is (raising interest rates), the markets and investors in general would like someone at the helm that they have experience with," says Vincent Boberski, managing director of fixed income research and strategies at RBC Dain Rauscher in Chicago.

　　Fed officials are widely expected to raise their target for short-term interest rates at their next meeting, June 29 and 30. Rates are currently at 1%, a 45-year low.

　　While many names have been brought up as potential successors to Greenspan, no one has emerged as the clear favorite. Potential candidates include: Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson, Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Gregory Mankiw, former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin and Harvard professor Martin Feldstein.