Economist精读文章 Tata Nano

THE world’s cheapest car, the Tata Nano—launched this week in Mumbai in a burst of flashbulbs and national pride—has turned the spotlight once again on the developing world’s emerging multinationals. From ArcelorMittal in steel to ZTE in telecoms, ambitious companies from India, China and other developing nations have marched onto the global stage in recent years, spooking the rich world’s established multinationals with innovative products and bold acquisitions. The Nano is a symbol of the ambition of these emerging giants.

置身于一连串的闪光灯之下，背负着民族的骄傲，塔塔（Tata）Nano本周在孟买发布。这款全世界最便宜的汽车让发展中国家新兴跨国公司再一次成为世人瞩目的焦点。近年来，从钢铁业的安赛乐米塔尔（ArcelorMittal）到电信业的中兴，这些来自印度、中国以及其它发展中国家雄心勃勃的公司已经踏上了全球的舞台。它们用创新产品和大胆的并购，让发达国家的那些老牌跨国公司慌了神。Nano正是这些新兴跨国大公司雄心壮志的象征。

But much has changed since Tata Motors first took the wraps off the tiny car in January 2008. The financial crisis, collapsing stockmarkets and plunging commodity prices have hit companies in rich and poor countries alike. Tata Motors, which bought Jaguar Land Rover, a British premium carmaker, from Ford last year for $2.3 billion, now faces the difficulty of refinancing its debt, and was downgraded this week by Standard & Poor’s (see article). Does this mean that the threat to established giants from emerging-market giants has receded?
不过，自2008年1月塔塔汽车公司首次揭示这款微型车的真容以来，情况发生了很大变化。金融危机、股市崩溃、物价猛跌让发达和落后国家的企业均遭受重创。去年，塔塔汽车公司以23亿美元的价格从福特手里收购了英国高档轿车品牌捷豹-陆虎，现如今却陷入了再融资以偿还债务的困境，本周标准-普尔指数也将其评级下调。这是否意味着新兴市场的大企业对老牌大企业造成的威胁已经减轻了呢？

Far from it. The crisis has strengthened the relative position of the emerging giants, for several reasons. First, as companies and consumers around the world cut costs and trade down, the emerging giants’ low-cost production models, based on cheap local labour, provide even more of an advantage. Second, even though growth in developing countries has slowed, it has not vanished altogether, so the emerging giants can fall back on their domestic markets. Car sales have collapsed in the rich world, for example, but are still growing in many developing countries: they are expected to increase by 10% this year in China, for instance.
远非如此，相反这场危机巩固了新兴大企业的相对地位，原因是多方面的。首先，由于全球企业削减成本，消费者减少消费，新兴大企业所采取的以当地廉价劳动力为基础的低成本生产模式使其占据了更多的优势。其二，发展中国家经济尽管增长减缓，但并非毫无增长，因而新兴大企业可以退而求其次，依靠国内市场。比如说，发达国家的汽车销售量出现暴跌，而在许多发展中国家却仍然扶摇直上。以中国为例，今年的汽车销售量有望增长10%。

Third, many rich-country multinationals have become much more inward-looking as they struggle to cope with the recession, and are less able to invest to defend their market positions, providing opportunities for disruptive new entrants. Again, a good example is that of carmaking, where the convulsions of the established giants, and the switch to greener technologies, give newcomers an opening. Ratan Tata, the boss of the Tata Group, spoke this week of his ambitions to sell the Nano not just in Europe, starting in 2011, but eventually in America, too. The electric car made by BYD, a Chinese battery-maker that branched into carmaking a few years ago, was the talk of the Detroit motor show in January.
其三，由于疲于应付经济衰退，而且投资保护市场地位也有些力不从心，许多发达国家跨国公司已经更多地将眼光盯到国内，这也给了新兴大企业“趁火打劫”的机会。关于这一点，汽车制造业同样很具有代表性——老牌大企业乱了阵脚，绿色科技的兴起，让新来者有了机会。塔塔集团老总拉坦．塔塔本周透露了其勃勃雄心：不仅仅要从2011年起将Nano卖到欧洲，而且最终还要卖到美国去。1月底特律车展上人们谈论的话题是中国电池制造商比亚迪生产的一款电动汽车，而比亚迪几年前才将业务扩展至汽车制造业。

Furthermore, many cash-strapped multinationals in the rich world are now trying to sell bits of themselves to raise capital, giving buyers in the developing world a chance to pick up technology, brands and other assets, says Harold Sirkin of the Boston Consulting Group, whose book “Globality” charts the rise of the emerging giants. Two Chinese carmakers, Chery and Geely, are interested in buying Volvo from Ford. Mahindra & Mahindra, an Indian maker of utility vehicles, is in the running to buy LDV, an ailing British truckmaker; there is also talk of a possible Chinese bid. Vale, Brazil’s mining giant, recently picked up a clutch of assets from Rio Tinto, its debt-laden Anglo-Australian rival. And ZTE, a fast-growing Chinese telecoms-equipment company with customers in over 60 countries, has been mooted as a possible buyer of the handset division of Motorola, the ailing American firm that ZTE is on the verge of evicting from the industry’s top five.
再者，《全球性》一书（记录了新兴大企业崛起的轨迹）的作者、波士顿咨询公司的哈罗德．塞金说，发达国家许多银根紧缺的跨国公司为了筹措资金，现正想方设法卖出自己的一些股份，这就给了发展中国家买家一个获得现成技术、品牌及其它资产的机会。奇瑞和吉利这两家中国汽车制造商就对从福特手上收购沃尔沃饶有兴趣。生产多用途汽车的印度制造商马欣德拉（Mahindra & Mahindra）很有可能买下病入膏肓的英国卡车制造商LDV；有人说中国企业也有可能参与竞购。巴西矿业巨擘Vale最近拿下了澳大利亚力拓公司的一部分资产。总部设在英国的力拓公司是Vale的对手，如今已负债累累。此外，还有中兴公司，这家发展迅速的中国通信设备公司的消费者已经遍布60多个国家，据猜测它很有可能成为摩托罗拉手机业务的买家。这家陷入困境的美国公司即将被中兴公司挤出该产业的前五强。

They’re behind you
有人跟着你

There are, of course, weak points among emerging-market giants. Some, including Tata Motors, overextended themselves when commodity prices were high and credit was easy to come by. Mexico’s Cemex, the world’s third-largest cement firm, is selling assets around the world as it struggles to meet its debt repayments. ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, which grew into a global giant from its roots in Indonesia, Trinidad and Mexico, launched a $1.5 billion convertible-bond issue this week to refinance some of its debt. But plenty of rich-world multinationals made the same mistakes and face similar problems, or worse.
当然，新兴市场的大企业也有弱点。在商品价格高、信贷较容易获取的时候，包括塔塔汽车在内的某些公司就有些不自量力了。由于要努力偿还债款，全球第三大水泥公司、墨西哥的Cemex正在全球范围内出售自己的资产。发端于印尼、特立尼达和墨西哥的世界最大钢铁制造商安赛乐米塔尔已经发展成为全球巨头，本周该公司发布了价值15亿美元的可转换债券，以再筹资金偿还债务。不过，相当一部分发达国家跨国公司也会犯同样的错误，陷入类似或者更糟糕的困境。

The emerging giants of the developing world are still a rising force during the good times. The launch of the Nano serves to remind rich-world bosses that they still need to keep an eye on their rear-view mirrors.
发展中国家的新兴大企业依旧是繁荣时期一支崛起的力量。Nano的发布足以提醒发达国家的老板们：要留心你身后啊！