奢侈品还有多少市场?

对有钱人的一项新的消费者调查得出了一些令人清醒的数据。

根据营销顾问公司Harrison Group在9月为American Express Publishing进行的一项调查，收入25万美元以上的消费者计划缩减假期开支，平均开支从去年的4,135美元下降到3,269美元。

这是个不好的信号，不光是对于奢侈品行业，对整个经济都是如此，因为有钱人本来应该带领大家走出低谷。

收入在10万美元以上的受调查者一半以上表示，削减开支的原因是“我们现在的生活方式更负责任”。不到三分之一的人说他们今年假期不会大肆花钱给自己的伴侣或孩子买礼物。

There were some sobering stats out this morning from a new consumer survey of the affluent.

According to a September poll by Harrison Group done for American Express Publishing, consumers with incomes of more than $250,000 are planning to cut their holiday spending to an average of $3,269 from $4,135 last year.

This is a bad sign not just for the bling business but also for the economy as a whole, since the people with money are supposed to lead the way out.

More than half of respondents with $100,000 or more in income said the reason for spending less is 'we are living more responsibly.' Fewer than a third said they would splurge on a gift for their spouses or children this holiday season.

Family members won't be the only ones taking the hit. The affluent also aren't planning to give more to philanthropy this season and nearly a fifth said they planned to donate less this year. Only 15% planned to give to charity in the name of family and friends, down from 20% last year.

All of which leads to the burning question in the Richistan economy: Will the rich go back to their luxurious ways when things recover? Will they ever get over their guilt (and lack of cash)?

The survey says 42% of those with $100,000 or more feel guilty buying luxury in the current economic climate. Most say the recession has changed their spending priorities.

And (here's the big one), only 40% of those earning $100,000 or more said that when the recession is over 'I will go back to the way I used to shop.'

This could be taken as a sign that the new normal doesn't involve as many $20,000 handbags or $300,000 watches that don't tell time.

But my hunch is that memories are short. Already the guilt numbers (42%) are down from the first quarter (54%).

More importantly, people will spend when they have money. Much has been made of luxury shame, responsible spending and a rich class that's somehow become more spiritual in the recession.

Some of that is true. But I would bet that splurging and bling will come back as soon as the rich feel rich again. Guilt has a funny way of disappearing when everyone starts getting wealthier again.

Do you think the rich will go back to their old ways as soon as things recover?