回首股市十年,你投资对了吗?

Now look at the stocks the experts told you to buy instead.
现在，我们再来看看当时专家都推荐你买些什么？
   
The most widely recommended -- according to a quick survey at the time in the Washington Post -- were America Online, Cisco Systems, Qualcomm, MCI WorldCom, Lucent Technology and Texas Instruments.
当时《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)一个快速调查显示，受到最普遍推荐的个股是：美国在线(America Online)、思科系统(Cisco Systems)、高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.)、通讯公司MCI WorldCom、朗讯科技(Lucent Technologies)和德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments)。
   
Ahem. 唉。
   
Any people who invested in that portfolio have lost about two-thirds of their money. The average stock picked at random was up 3%, including dividends.
不论是谁，只要是选择了这样的投资组合，都已经损失了将近三分之二。若将股息考虑在内，随机选择的股票平均涨幅都能有3%。
   
Beware of 'Disaster' Picks
警惕灾难性的投资选择
   
Money Magazine's 'The Best Investments for 2000 and Beyond': down about a fifth.
财经类杂志《Money Magazine》选出的“2000年及之后最佳投资选择”怎么样呢？跌了将近五分之一。
   
The SmartMoney/Wall Street Journal Sunday picks fell by about a half. The list was heavily weighted toward technology, and most stocks plummeted. MCI WorldCom and Nortel Networks ended up in Chapter 11.
财智/《华尔街日报》周日版(The SmartMoney/The Wall Street Journal Sunday)选出的股票跌了将近一半。科技类股在这份清单比重很高，而且它们当中大多数都出现了重挫。MCI WorldCom和北电网络有限公司(Nortel Networks Corp.)更是根据破产法第11章(Chapter 11)关门歇业了。
   
OK, it's easy to poke fun. But it's something to think about -- especially around this time of year, when wise men once again come bearing stock tips.
好吧，取笑别人总是容易的。但是我们需要多想想这个问题，特别是年底之际，此时聪明人又带着选股建议来了。
   
The embarrassments don't stop there. Investors have just endured an absolutely terrible 10 years -- a string of crashes, crises, financial scandals, recessions and collapsed bubbles.
让人难受的事情还没完。投资者刚刚经历了一个非常糟糕的10年：一连串的暴跌、危机、金融丑闻、衰退和破灭的泡沫。
   
According to Standard & Poor's analyst Howard Silverblatt, it has actually been the worst decade for U.S. investors on record. When you look at total returns, including dividends, we've even done worse than the 1930s. Investors in the S&P 500 have lost about 10% this decade.
标准普尔(Standard & Poor)分析师霍华德．西尔弗布拉特(Howard Silverblatt)说，这是有纪录以来美国投资者经历的最糟糕的10年。当你用包括股息的整体回报来衡量的话，我们现在的处境比上世纪30年代还要悲惨。在过去的10年中，投资标准普尔500指数的投资者损失了大约10%。
   
After you count inflation, investors have actually lost about 30%. That's even behind the inflationary 1970s, when investors lost about 23% in real terms.
若将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，投资者实际亏损了将近30%。这甚至比不上严重通胀的70年代，当时投资者的实际损失只有约23%。
   
And that's if you managed to hang on. Those shaken out during the crashes of 2001-2003 and 2007-2009 may have done much worse.
损失几十个百分点的前提是你还活了下来。对于那些在2001-2003年以及2007-2009年股市暴跌中被踢出局的投资者来说，他们的境遇要糟糕的多。
   
The Nasdaq Composite fell about three quarters from its peak, and, of course, many technology stocks were wiped out altogether. But how much warning did investors get from the pros? Almost none.
纳斯达克综合指数较之峰值下跌了将近四分之三；当然，许多科技类股已经彻底消失不见了。但是投资者从专业人士那里得到了多少警告呢？答案是：几乎没有。
   
When Barron's, our sister publication, held its annual investment roundtable in January 2000, just two of the 10 major Wall Street figures who took part warned investors about a looming bear market. This was just three months before the Nasdaq reached its all-time high -- which is still more than double where it stands today.
当本公司旗下另一出版物《巴伦周刊》(Barron's)在2000年1月份举行年度投资者圆桌会议时，当时在场的十位华尔街大人物中只有两人警示投资者要注意熊市的迫近。仅仅在三个月后纳指就创下了历史上的最高点，之后的暴跌令如今的纳指还不到当时的一半。