2010年全球金融界十大预言

I said it last year - and I'll say it again. There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future - and that is publicly sharing your predictions.

我去年就说过今年要再强调的一点是：唯一比预测未来更不招人待见的事情就是公开自己的预言。

Judge for yourself. Click here and here to review my predictions from the past year.

判断权在你手里。点击这里可以看到去年此时我对2009年的预言。

Meanwhile, it's onto 2010:

现在，我们来说说2010年。

AIG CEO Robert Benmosche will be voted CEO of the Year.

美国国际集团首席执行长本默切将当选年度CEO。

Benmosche's abrasive morale-building exercise at AIG will take hold. The U.S. pay czar will give Benmosche leeway on pay. And a continuing rebound in the markets will give AIG a shot at repaying a good chunk of taxpayer money.

本默切重振公司士气的艰苦努力将取得回报。美国“薪酬沙皇”将对他网开一面。而且各个市场的持续回暖将令公司有机会偿还一大笔美国纳税人的救助资金。

Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman will do an about-face on the bank's 'lower risk' corporate strategy.

摩根士丹利首席执行长戈尔曼将给该行所谓“降低风险”的策略来个大掉头。

About now, new CEO Gorman is probably learning that the meager profits of a retail brokerage can't pay for all those monster Wall Street bonuses. Expect Gorman to decide that Morgan Stanley should be a lot more like trader Goldman Sachs, after all.

眼下，这位大摩新掌门或许意识到了来自零售经纪业务的微薄盈利还不够华尔街薪酬的血盆大口塞牙缝。预计戈尔曼会决定最终要向交易商高盛看齐。

Goldman Sachs will pay out big bonuses, be publicly vilified for a month and then go quietly back to printing profits.

高盛将大派红包，饱受各方抨击一个月，然后静悄悄地干回自己的老本行－－挣钱。