"正直"到底值多少钱?

Dear economists
亲爱的经济学家：
　　
There seem to be economic benefits for a society where people are law-abiding, trustworthy, caring and generally nice. You get less cheating, and where you feel you can trust people, you can enter into business dealings with more confidence. Has anyone calculated the economic value of people being nice? And could a government invest in people being nice? If so, what would be the return on that investment?
一个社会如果人人守法、诚信、相互关爱和普遍正派，看上去是有经济价值的。你上当受骗的机会更少；在一个你感到能够信任他人的环境中，你可以更有信心的开展业务。是否有人计算过“为人正派”的经济价值？政府能否在这方面投资，让人们变得正派？如果能的话，这项投资的回报又会是什么？
　　
James Atkins
詹姆斯．阿特金斯
　　
Dear James,
亲爱的詹姆斯，
　　
Even economists would recognise that niceness is valuable for its own sake. But you are right, it is also good for the economy. Steve Knack, an economist who specialises in governance, trust and social capital (translation: niceness) once told me that, taking a broad definition of trust, it would explain the difference between the per capita income of the US and Somalia. That is, niceness and its cousins are worth about 99.5 per cent of US national income.
甚至连经济学家也会承认，“正派”本身即是有价值的。但你说的没错，它也有利于经济。专门研究治理、信任和社会资本（即“正派”）的经济学家史蒂夫．克纳克曾告诉我，美国与索马里在人均收入上的差距可用广义上的信任来解释。也就是说，信任及类似美德的价值大约相当于美国国民收入的99.5%。
　　
There are limits, though. When people trust each other, they become vulnerable to cheats. A recent paper by economists Jeff Butler, Paola Giuliano and Luigi Guiso finds that for an individual, there's an optimal level of trust in others. Too little and you're over-conservative, missing opportunities; too much and you get screwed. The effects are large, similar to the difference between going to college or not.
不过，这类美德也存在局限性。当人们以诚相待时，他们很容易受骗。经济学者杰夫．巴特勒、保拉．朱利亚诺和路易吉．圭索近期发表的一篇论文发现，对个人来说，对他人的信任存在一个最佳的“度”。过少，你就会过于保守并错过机会；过多，你就会上当受骗。这个“度”影响重大，把握住与把握不住，其区别与是否读大学类似。
　　
It is not clear how a government might encourage people to be nicer, but one famous economic study does suggest a way: Ray Fisman and Ted Miguel looked at the behaviour of diplomats in New York. The Scandinavians committed 12 unpaid parking violations between them; diplomats from Chad and Bangladesh notched up over 2,500. But when the city was given more power to punish offenders, all the diplomats cleaned up their act – niceness is best supported by legal incentives.
目前还不清楚，政府如何才能鼓励人们变得更加正派。但一项著名的经济研究却提供了一个建议：雷．菲斯曼和特德．米格尔研究了驻纽约外交官们的行为。斯堪的纳维亚国家外交官未付的违章停车罚单共有12张，乍得和孟加拉国外交官未付的违章停车罚单却超过2500张。但当纽约市政府被赋予更大权力来惩处违章者时，所有外交官都检点了自己的行为——正派最好是由法律上的激励措施来支撑。