丰田事件给投资者的教训

Events of the past month show, once again, why you should never put too much faith in the opinions of Wall Street experts and analysts.
过去一个月的各种事件再次证明，为什么永远不应该盲从华尔街专家与分析师的观点。

Even when they all agree about something?
如果他们对某个东西众口一词呢？

Especially when they all agree about something!
那就更不能盲从了！

Up until a month ago, just before the crisis broke, Toyota was one of those companies that wasn't followed by a community of analysts so much as by a squad of cheerleaders.
直到一个月以前丰田危机爆发前夕，一帮分析师对丰田和其他一些公司的关注，跟一群拉拉队没有什么分别。

The company could do no wrong.
这家公司是不可能犯错的。

It had achieved the unthinkable, toppling mighty General Motors from the top of the industry.
它将通用汽车(General Motors)从行业王者的位置掀翻在地，完成了一件不可想象的事情。

Its Prius hybrid was so hot-particularly during the energy crisis in 2008-that customers waited months in line to buy one.
它的普锐斯(Prius)多火呀──特别是在2008年能源危机的时候──人们要买一辆得排队等上几个月。

Toyota's operations, from design to manufacturing to sales, were the envy of the industry and the standard by which all rivals were measured.
从设计到制造到销售，丰田的运营方式成了行业艳羡的对象，和人们评判其竞争对手的标尺。

Eighteen equity analysts cover Toyota stock, which is traded on Wall Street (as American Depository Receipts, under the ticker TM) as well as in Tokyo. And as of the middle of January, no fewer than 16 recommended it to their clients, calling it either an 'outperform' or a 'buy.'
跟踪丰田股票的分析师有18位。除了在东京，丰田股票在华尔街也以美国存托凭证(American Depository Receipts)的形式进行交易，代码为TM。到1月中旬，至少16位分析师向客户推荐它的股票，评级要么是“优于大盘”，要么是“买入”。

Just one rated it an underperform.
只有一位分析师给出的评级是“弱于大盘”。

Even by the standards of hooray analyst coverage, this was extreme. Toyota was considered the safe, blue chip option among the top car makers. No portfolio manager, went the theory, would get fired for buying Toyota stock.
即使是对比拉拉队分析师的分析，这也太过了。丰田的股票被认为是顶级汽车生产商当中安全的蓝筹股。按照这种假设，没有哪位投资经理会因为购买丰田股票而下岗。