《阿凡达》的成功让好莱坞掀起3D电影大战

Hollywood studios, juiced by the success of 'Avatar,' are tripping over each other to release movies in 3-D. In the process, they risk overloading multiplexes, which are equipped to handle only a portion of the 3-D pack at a time.

More than 20 3-D releases are scheduled already for this year, and additional titles are expected to be announced. Costly productions could wind up cannibalizing each other as they jostle for screens. As of the beginning of the year, less than 10% of the U.S.'s roughly 40,000 screens were 3-D enabled, according to the National Association of Theatre Owners.

'It's an unfortunate situation to have more 3-D films coming out than the market can currently accommodate,' says Patrick Corcoran, director of media and research for the National Association of Theatre Owners. 'It puts theaters and studios in a really difficult position.'

Early next month, Walt Disney Co.'s 'Alice in Wonderland' will hit theaters at a time when 'Avatar' is still running and hoping to capitalize on the Academy Awards, where it was nominated in nine categories. Some theater owners worry they will not have enough screens to play both films. 'Avatar' has grossed $2.4 billion so far.

More serious traffic jams follow. In early April, Warner Bros.' 'Clash of the Titans,' which is undergoing an 11th-hour conversion into 3-D, is set to open just a week after DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.'s 'How to Train Your Dragon.' Some 3-D screens will still belong to Disney's 'Alice' at that time.

Some exhibitors say they even got the impression from Warner Bros. that the studio was prepared to withhold its other films from theaters that wouldn't agree to make way for 'Clash,' according to people familiar with the matter.

Warner Bros. denies that. 'That's absolutely not true,' says Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution for Warner Bros. 'It would never happen; we don't operate like that.'

In July, Universal Pictures' 'Despicable Me' is set to open three weeks after Disney's 'Toy Story 3.' November ushers in another pileup: Warner's seventh 'Harry Potter' movie is to open two weeks after 'Megamind,' another DreamWorks release, along with Disney's 'Tangled' around the same time.

Theater owners in North America are collectively adding about 250 screens a month, and they will pick up the pace to have roughly 5,000 to 7,000 by the end of the year to accommodate a crush of holiday releases. But the number of 3-D films hitting theaters over the next several months may be too much for the system to handle.

'Even with the screens we're adding, it's going to be a tough spring,' says Ellis Jacob, chief executive of Cineplex Entertainment, Canada's largest movie exhibition company. 'I'm happy that there are so many 3-D movies coming, but I am concerned that we have them so close together,' he adds.

The studios, however, are confident that they will have enough screens. 'We were a little late in the game, sure,' says Warner Bros.' Mr. Fellman. 'But with the help of our friends in exhibition and additional deployment of screens happening now, I'm satisfied with the result.'

Leading up to the current 3-D boom, the movie industry was spiraling downward. Wall Street had pumped billions into Hollywood, leading to a glut of films. By 2007, film production had increased so much that there were 2.6 more films at the theater every weekend than there had been five years earlier. The movies ate into each other's take at the box office, and many lost money. At the same time, DVD sales -- which had become Hollywood's biggest source of profits -- fell 13% last year.

The rollout of new-generation 3-D technology injected the industry with optimism. Audiences flocked to 3-D movies, and they have been willing to shell out the roughly $3 premium tacked onto each ticket.

For big-budget movies that come with a global audience, a 3-D version may increase a film's profits by about 25%. 'Avatar' consistently sold out its higher-priced 3-D and IMAX screens before its 2-D ones; 75% of its revenue came from 3-D screenings. 'Avatar' was released by Twentieth Century Fox, a division of News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal.

But maintaining the profitability of 3-D is tricky. Last year, Universal's 'Coraline' was bumped from some screens after just three weeks when a 3-D Jonas Brothers concert film was released. Universal is owned by General Electric Co.

While some of the coming movies were initially produced in 3-D, like 'Dragon' and 'Alice,' others, such as 'Clash,' are being converted from 2-D just before they are released.

'There are dozens of projects that are being looked at right now for last-minute 3-D conversion to be released in 2010,' says Chris Bond, who heads up the 3-D team at Prime Focus, the special-effects company working on 'Clash.' 'A lot of studio executives are going to look at 'Clash,' and if it works -- then 3-D conversion will explode.'

However, some in the industry are concerned that quick 3-D conversions, if they are visually inferior, could end up cheapening the genre.

'Good 3-D is good for the whole industry,' says Buzz Hays, senior vice president of Sony Corp.'s 3-D Technology Center. Bad 3-D, he adds, risks spoiling the whole bunch.

Demand for quick 3-D conversions is skyrocketing. Legend 3D, a special effects company that converted parts of Disney's 'Alice' and 'G-Force,' is converting about five major studio movies to 3-D at the moment, half of which are set for theatrical release in 2010 and half will be released just on DVD around Christmas.

电影《阿凡达》（Avatar）的巨大成功让好莱坞（Hollywood）制片商垂涎三尺，他们都在竞相推出3-D电影。然而，美国各大影院却有些不堪负荷，要知道，他们的设备一次只能上映部分的3-D影片。

定于今年推出的3-D电影已经超过20部，预计还会不断有新影片推出。高昂的制作成本可能会导致这些电影在争夺大屏幕的时候自相残杀。根据全美影院主协会（National Association of Theatre Owners）的统计，截至今年年初，美国大约四万个屏幕里只有不到10%可以支持3-D影片的播放。

全美影院主协会负责媒体和研究的主管帕特里克．科科伦（Patrick Corcoran）表示，3-D影片的数量已经超出市场目前的容量，这是一个很不幸的现状。这让影院和制片商都陷入非常困难的境地。

3月初，沃特-迪斯尼公司（Walt Disney Co.）的《爱丽丝漫游仙境》（'Alice in Wonderland'）将上映，届时《阿凡达》仍会在档期内，并希望利用获得奥斯卡金像奖（Academy Awards）九大类奖项提名之势继续席卷票房。一些影院主担心他们不会有足够的屏幕同时播放两部3-D影片。迄今为止，《阿凡达》的票房已经高达24亿美元。

还会有更为糟糕的“堵车”。4月初，华纳兄弟（Warner Bros.）的《泰坦之战》（'Clash of the Titans'）将在梦工厂（DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.）的《驯龙记》('How to Train Your Dragon')上映一周后推出。而到那个时候，一些3-D屏幕还会在播放迪斯尼的《爱丽丝漫游仙境》。目前，《泰坦之战》正在3-D版本转换的后期阶段。

据知情人士透露，一些影院表示，他们觉得华纳兄弟准备针对那些不愿同意为《泰坦之战》留出3-D档期的影院，采取不向其发行某些影片的做法。

华纳兄弟对此予以否认。华纳兄弟负责国内分销的总裁丹．费尔曼（Dan Fellman）表示，这绝对不是实情。这种情况永远也不会发生；我们不是这样经营的。

环球电影公司（Universal Pictures）的《卑鄙的我》(Despicable Me)将在迪斯尼《玩具总动员3》（Toy Story 3）的三周后上映。11月份又将迎来另一次拥堵：华纳兄弟的《哈利波特》（Harry Potter）第七集将在梦工厂的《超级大坏蛋》（Megamind）两周后上映，届时迪斯尼的《缠结》（Tangled）也将同期上映。

北美各大影院每个月都要增加一共大约250个屏幕，而且他们将加快速度，争取到今年年底拥有5,000至7,000个屏幕容纳假日电影的集中上映。然而，准备在未来几个月上映的3-D电影的数量可能还是太多，美国的影院体系恐怕难以应付。

加拿大最大的影院公司Cineplex Entertainment的首席执行长埃利斯．雅各布(Ellis Jacob)表示，即便算上我们正在增加的屏幕，这也将是一个艰难的春季。他补充说，我很高兴有这么多的3-D电影推出，但是我对于他们的档期如此接近感到担忧。

不过，制片商却对影院有足够屏幕放映3-D电影充满信心。华纳兄弟的费尔曼表示，当然，我们在这场游戏中来得有点晚。但是，在影院界朋友的帮助下，以及他们目前正在增加的屏幕，我对结果表示满意。

在这波3-D电影大潮之前，整个电影行业实际在走下坡路。华尔街曾经向好莱坞注资数十亿美元，导致电影产出过剩。到2007年，电影制作增加得速度如此之快，以至于较五年前相比，每周的上映影片数量平均多出了2.6部。这些电影互相竞争，侵蚀各自的票房，许多电影更是入不敷出。同时，好莱坞最大的利润来源──DVD的销售去年则下降了13%。

新一代3-D科技的推出给电影行业注入了乐观情绪。观众纷纷涌入影院观看3-D电影，他们更是毫不吝惜每张票价3美元的涨价。

对于面向全球观众的大制作电影，3-D版本可能会促使影片的利润增加约25%、《阿凡达》票价较贵的3-D和IMAX屏幕版本的电影票较2-D版本相比一直供不应求；其75%的收入来自3-D屏幕。《阿凡达》由新闻集团旗下（News Corp.）的21世纪福克斯（Twentieth Century Fox）推出。《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）亦属新闻集团旗下。

不过，维持3-D电影的盈利能力并非易事。去年在这部3-D版本的乔纳斯兄弟（Jonas Brothers）音乐会电影推出后仅三周，环球电影公司的《鬼妈妈》（Coraline）就被迫在一些影院提前下档。环球电影公司属于通用电气公司（General Electric Co.）。

虽然一些即将上演的电影开始就是以3-D版本制作，如《驯龙记》（Dragon） 和《爱丽丝漫游仙境》，包括《泰坦之战》在内的其它一些电影都是在上演前由2-D转换为3-D版本的。

正在处理《泰坦之战》的特效公司Prime Focus的3-D小组负责人克里斯．邦德（Chris Bond）表示，目前有十几个项目最终都可能会被转换为3-D版本，赶在2010年上映。许多制片商的管理人士都在等待《泰坦之战》的效果，如果转换出来的3-D效果不错，那么3-D转换将呈现爆发式增长。

然而，业内一些认识担心，3-D版本的快速转换，如果导致视觉效果低劣，可能会让整个影片风格趋于廉价。

索尼公司（Sony Corp.）3-D技术中心的高级副总裁海斯（Buzz Hays）表示，优质3-D电影有利于整个电影行业，而劣质3-D电影可能会毁掉这个类别。

对于快速转换3-D版本的需求正在大幅飙升。特效公司Legend 3D正在将大约五部大片转换为3-D版本，其中一半定于2010年在各大影院上映，另一半大约在圣诞节前后通过DVD上映。Legend 3D曾经转换过迪斯尼《爱丽丝漫游仙境》和鼠胆妙算（G-Force）的部分内容。