希腊危机是否会酿成悲剧?

WSJ(3/3) No Greek Tragedy Here

Mention Greece, and I used to think of idyllic island holidays, azure seas and sky, classical ruins and the cradle of democracy. Remember 'Mamma Mia'?

Now Greece is the profligate spender and shaky debtor of Europe, threatening to drag the financial system into another global crisis. Do investors need to worry that Greece will be the next Lehman Brothers?

So far events have been eerily reminiscent of 2008. Some of the same hedge funds that cashed in on the subprime mortgage crisis are said to have piled into credit default swaps on Greek bonds, betting Greece will default on the debt, driving up the cost of insurance against default. Reports that European banks, especially those in Germany and France, have big exposures to Greek debt have been driving down their stock prices.

We know how interconnected the global banking system has become. Just as European banks Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank turned out to be two of the biggest American International Group counterparties, American banks and financial institutions could well be on the hook for guaranteeing Greek debt against default. And where that chain of swaps ends is anybody's guess.

But we also know from the financial crisis that entities too big to fail, which presumably include debt-issuing sovereign nations, won't be allowed to default. The consequences are too dire. Leaders of the European Union have already said that Greece's credit will somehow be salvaged, even though they've been conspicuously silent about how a Greek rescue will work.

Last week Greece had to postpone a planned offering of bonds, which rattled markets. Greece has 20 billion euros (about $27.1 billion) of bonds coming due this spring that it will need to refinance. The cost of insuring against a Greek default soared, and the value of the euro fell against the dollar.

Everyone assumes the brunt of a bailout will fall on the Germans and the French. No wonder German voters are mad: The Germans have to wait until they're 67 to be eligible for retirement benefits. (Greece plans to raise its average retirement age to 63 from 61.) Greek workers have gone on strike repeatedly to protest any cuts in benefits.

European stocks have dropped more than U.S. markets this year, creating something of an opportunity, in my view. Europe's problems aren't confined to Greece by any means, but high-quality European stocks look attractive relative to their counterparts in the rest of the world.

I own an exchange traded fund, the BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index, which yields 3.78%. But there are many mutual funds and ETFs that focus on Europe. Financial and European stocks may continue to gyrate on the latest developments, but in the end I expect the crisis to be resolved. Greece shouldn't turn into another Lehman Brothers.