瑞银预测:南非世界杯巴西夺冠

瑞士银行的分析人士用数学模型对今年南非世界杯的结果进行了预测，称曾经五次获得世界杯冠军的巴西队，此次夺冠的几率为22％，是最有可能夺冠球队；而目前大热的英格兰队和西班牙队获胜的几率相当低，均为4％。此次预测结果是分析人士根据各个球队的历史成绩和当前的积分排名情况，利用“经济计量工具箱和定量模型”测算后得出的。测算结果还显示，东道主南非队进入淘汰赛的几率高达78%，英格兰的小组赛出线几率为63%，而晋级八强的概率为21%。瑞士银行的分析人士曾经通过模型成功预测了2006年的世界杯冠军为意大利，同时还成功预测了16强中的13支球队以及八强中的6支球队。

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning.

Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said.

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favorite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also has just a 4pc chance, it said.

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday.

"And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage.

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.

The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.

Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said.

England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals.

The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists.

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said.

UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

Country              Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

Brazil                        22pc

Germany                  18pc

Italy                           13pc

Netherlands              8pc

France                      6pc

Argentina                 5pc

Spain                       4pc

England                   4pc

Vocabulary:

Elo ratings: 埃罗排名，是用来计算一个人在双人对决性比赛里的相对的技能等级的一个系统，最早应用于国际象棋和围棋。简单的说，就是把“实力”这种比较“虚”的东西数字化的一种办法。这个系统是由物理学教授Arpad Elo创立的，因此以他的名字命名。这一积分等级系统现已广泛应用于足球等多人参与的对决性比赛，参加比赛的级别、净胜球数以及比赛结果等均在计算参数之列。