全球变暖:未来的日子更难熬

As global warming continues such heat waves will be increasingly common in the future, a Stanford University study concludes.
斯坦福大学一项研究称，随着全球变暖，这样的热浪在未来会越来越普遍。

"In the next 30 years, we could see an increase in heat waves like the one now occurring in the eastern United States or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities," Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford, said in a statement.
“今后30年，像现在袭击美国东部或者像2003年席卷欧洲并造成数十万人伤亡的热浪出现的次数会增加，” 斯坦福大学地球环境系统科学助理教授诺阿·迪芬巴夫在一份声明中说。

Diffenbaugh and Moetasim Ashfaq, a former Stanford postdoctoral fellow now at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, used a series of computer models of climate to calculate changes in the future with increased levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere. Their findings are reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
迪芬巴夫和曾在斯坦福大学做博士后研究、现在橡树岭国家实验室工作的阿什法克使用一系列计算机气候模式来计算大气中一氧化碳和其他气体增加的情况下会出现哪些变化。《地球物理研究快报》杂志报道了他们的研究成果。

They calculate that within 30 years average temperature could be 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 Celsius, higher than in the mid-1800s.
他们计算的结果是：与19世纪中期相比，30年内，平均气温将会升高3.6华氏度，或者2摄氏度。

That level of increase has been reported by others and most atmospheric scientists expect it to lead to warming and a change in a variety of weather and climate conditions.
其他的科学家也曾报告过这样的升温水平。大多数的大气科学家预计，它会导致气候变暖并带来多种气候和天气状况的改变。

Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq focus specifically on heat waves over the United States.
迪芬巴夫和阿什法克的研究特别关注美国的热浪。

They reported that an intense heat wave equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 is likely to occur as many as five times between 2020 and 2029 over areas of the western and central United States.
他们称，美国西部和中部在2020到2029年期间，最多可能出现5次在程度上等同于1951年和1999年期间出现的最长纪录的强烈热浪。

In addition, they said the 2030s are projected to be even hotter.
此外，他们预测21世纪30年代会更热。

"Occurrence of the longest historical heat wave further intensifies in the 2030-2039 period, including greater than five occurrences per decade over much of the western U.S. and greater than three exceedences per decade over much of the eastern U.S.," the researchers reported.
这两位研究员说：“在2030-2039年期间出现历史上最长时间的热浪的次数将会进一步增多，这包括在美国西部许多地区每10年出现5次以上的热浪；美国东部许多地区每10年不少于3次的热浪。”

"I did not expect to see anything this large within the next three decades. This was definitely a surprise," Diffenbaugh said.
迪芬巴夫说“我可没预想到未来30年会发生像这样的大事情。这的确令人吃惊。”

The research was funded by the Energy Department and the National Science Foundation. The climate model simulations were generated and analyzed at Purdue University.
此项研究得到了斯坦福大学能源系和国家科学基金会的资助。天气模式模拟数据是由美国普渡大学生成和分析的。