新浪微博何时才能创收?

users must register with their real identities will probably delay the company's revenue-generating plan until the second half of this year.

从那以来，曹国伟已两次推迟了商业化时间表，预计本月他将再次这么做。新浪员工表示，政府要求所有微博用户必须登记真实身份，这很可能将公司的创收计划推迟至今年下半年。 

"That will create a lot of negative sentiment with investors," says Alicia Yap, an analyst at Barclays Capital. "The post-New Year rally will not be sustainable."

“这将在投资者当中产生非常大的负面情绪，”巴克莱资本(Barclay Capital)分析师埃利西亚•雅普(Alicia Yap)表示。“新年后新浪股价的涨势将无法持续下去。” 

Such concerns were reinforced this week, when government officials said that Weibo users who failed to register under their real names by March 16 would no longer be allowed to post messages. Local media have reported that only 3m new users have registered on Sina Weibo over the past month – down from about 20m in earlier months.

政府官员最近表示，从3月16日起，没有实名注册的用户将不准在微博上发言，这使投资者的担忧进一步加剧。中国媒体报道称，新浪微博过去一个月新增用户仅300万人，低于以往几个月大约新增2000万人的水平。 

The company's share price already reflects some of these concerns. Following a series of government moves towards tighter censorship of social media, and falling profitability because of the soaring cost of marketing Weibo, Sina shares have lost 54 per cent since their peak of $142.83 on April 19 last year.

这些担忧已经在新浪的股价中得到了反映。继政府采取一系列措施收紧对社交媒体的审查，同时微博营销成本飙升导致盈利能力下降后，新浪股价已从去年4月19日142.83美元的高位下跌54%。 

Sina has not been idle, though. "The company has been working hard to lay the ground for monetisation, and it is moving closer," says Dong Xu, a social media expert at Analysys International, an internet research company in Beijing. That includes hiring engineers to strengthen its skills in developing applications and to adjust its platform to new needs.

不过，新浪未曾懈怠。“新浪一直在努力为微博商业化打基础，现在离目标更近了，”北京互联网调研公司易观国际(Analysys International)的社交媒体专家董旭表示。新浪的努力包括招募工程技术人员来加强应用开发方面的技能，以及调整其平台以满足新的需求。

Unlike Tencent, China's largest internet company by revenues and Sina's main rival in the social space, Sina is essentially a media company. Advertising accounted for 77 per cent of its 2011 revenues of $484m, Morgan Stanley estimates.

与中国营收最高的互联网公司、新浪在社交媒体领域的主要对手腾讯(Tecent)有所不同，新浪在本质上是一家媒体公司。据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计，新浪2011年营业收入为4.84亿美元，其中广告收入占到77%。

Investors hope the company can build a business beyond advertising, similar to Facebook, which last week filed for its long-awaited stock market debut to raise $5bn. Such a model would resemble Tencent, whose broad spread of revenue streams has made it much less vulnerable to cyclical swings when advertising falls.

投资者希望新浪把自己打造成一家类似于Facebook、不仅依赖广告的企业。上周，Facebook提交了期待已久的上市申请，打算融资50亿美元。这种模式将和腾讯很相似，腾讯拥有广泛的收入流，这意味着当广告收入下降时，该公司受到周期波动的影响要小得多。