婚恋网站不为人知的秘密

FOR as long as humans have romanced each other, others have wanted to meddle. Whether those others were parents, priests, friends or bureaucrats, their motive was largely the same: they thought they knew what it took to pair people off better than those people knew themselves.

只要一有人要找对象，周围人就喜欢掺和。这些人，不管是父母、牧师、朋友还是同事，他们的说辞都一个模样：你当局者迷啊，我旁观者清，我比你更知道你该找个什么样的，我来给你参谋参谋。

Today, though, there is a new matchmaker in the village: the internet. It differs from the old ones in two ways. First, its motive is purely profit. Second, single wannabe lovers are queuing up to use it, rather than resenting its nagging. For internet dating sites promise two things that neither traditional matchmakers nor chance encounters at bars, bus-stops and bar mitzvahs offer. One is a vastly greater choice of potential partners. The other is a scientifically proven way of matching suitable people together, enhancing the chance of "happily ever after".

如今，网络红娘新加入到这些人当中来。不同于传统媒人的是，这位新式红娘动机单纯到只为挣钱；并且单身人士竞相注册使用，他们一点儿也不像原来那样因讨厌别人的絮叨而感到烦恼。这是为什么呢？原来，婚恋网站许诺了两件事，这两件事旧式红娘办不到，街头邂逅也办不到。其一，网站为单身们提供了大量的候选人；其二，网站总是宣称他们可提供科学方法来帮助单身们找到合适人选，从而能增加伴侣们“从此过上幸福生活”的机率。

The greater choice is unarguable. But does it lead to better outcomes? And do the "scientifically tested algorithms" actually work, and deliver the goods in ways that traditional courtship (or, at least, flirtation) cannot manage? These are the questions asked by a team of psychologists led by Eli Finkel of Northwestern University, in Illinois, in a paper released—probably not coincidentally—a few days before St Valentine's day. This paper, published in Psychological Science in the Public Interest, reviews studies carried out by many groups of psychologists since the earliest internet dating site, Match.com, opened for business in 1995. In it, Dr Finkel and his colleagues cast a sceptical eye over the whole multi-billion-dollar online dating industry, and they are deeply unconvinced.

更多选择这一点毫无疑问，可这确实能带来更好的结果吗？而所谓的“科学验证过的算法”真的有用吗？这些算法真的能提供传统的追求方式（至少是，调情方式）所办不到的事吗？ 美国伊利诺斯州西北大学伊莱·芬克博士领导的一个心理学专家小组关心的正是这些问题，他们恰是在情人节前（也许真的不是巧合）发表了这么一篇论文。这篇论文，发表在《公众心理科学杂志》上，回顾了自最早的婚恋网站Match.com自1995年上线以来各路心理学家为此所做的各种研究成果。在这篇论文中，芬克博士和他的同事们对价值千亿美元的网络婚恋产业投去质疑的目光，而研究结论也确实令他们对本段开头所提的那些问题答案更为怀疑了。

Blueprint for a perfect partner?

完美伴侣蓝图？

The researchers' first observation is not so much what the studies they examined have shown, but what they have been unable to show, namely how any of the much-vaunted partner-matching algorithms actually work.

研究人员最先着手的问题是：被过分夸大的伴侣匹配算法在实战中是如何发挥作用的？这一点并非为之前的研究所验证过，而恰是它们未能展示的部分。

Commercially, that is fair enough. Many firms preserve their intellectual property as trade secrets, rather than making it public by patenting it, and there is no reason why internet dating sites should not be among them. But this makes claims of efficacy impossible to test objectively. There is thus no independent scientific evidence that any internet dating site's algorithm for matching people together actually does enhance the chance of their hitting it off when they meet. What papers have been published on the matter have been written by company insiders who do not reveal how the crucial computer programs do their stuff.

从商业角度看，这并无不妥。很多公司都会将其智力成果作为商业机密而加以保护，根本不会去申请专利而使之公开，那么婚恋网站就没理由不在其中啊。可这当然就会使得其所声称的有效性得不到客观验证。于是，根本就不存在独立客观的科学证据可以证明婚恋网站所发布的配对算法能够增加人们相遇后互相觉得投缘的机率。有关这方面的发表论文均出自网站内部工作人员，他们根本就不会透露这个关键的电脑程序是如何进行计算的。

It is, though, possible to test the value of a claim often made for these algorithms: that they match people with compatible personality traits. No doubt they do, given the number of questions on such matters on the average application form. What is assumed, but not tested, however, is that this is a good thing—that those with compatible personalities make more successful couples than those without. To examine this proposition, Dr Finkel draws on a study published in 2010 by Portia Dyrenforth of Hobart and William Smith Colleges, in Geneva, New York.

然而，去验证这些算法所归纳的结论又似乎是可能的：网站总是挑出那些具备包容性格的人进行配对。假设他们在申请表中列上一些有关这类性格的问题，电脑肯定能做到这件事。可是，这种说法与其说是种验证不如说是种猜测——即假设那些具备包容性格的人比那些不太包容的人更容易找到对象。为了检验这个命题，芬克博士引用了刊登于2010年的一项研究成果，这项研究由位于美国纽约州日内瓦城的霍巴特威廉史密斯学院的波西亚·德莱佛斯（Portia Dyrenforth）所做。