经济衰退时哪些工作不易丢?

Before, during and after the recession, demand for one sort of worker has been persistently stronger: jobs that involve assisting or caring for other people - from fast-food workers to home-health aides to nail polishers.

无论是经济衰退前、经济衰退中还是经济衰退后，有一类人员一直比较走俏──他们从事着辅助他人的生活或是照料他人生活的工作，包括快餐店员工、家庭保健护理师和美甲师等。

These occupations have one thing in common: They aren't easily automated or outsourced abroad. 'You can't send people to China or India for a haircut,' says Israel Kakuriev, 37 years old, who has been cutting hair in midtown Manhattan for the past 20 years. Nor is there, yet, a robot that can cut hair or hold the hand of an elderly woman with Alzheimer's or do all the chores that flight attendants do.

这些行业都有一个共同点──不易于实行自动化操作或是被外包到海外。今年37岁、已在曼哈顿中城干了20年理发工作的伊兹蕾•卡库尔耶夫(Israel Kakuriev)说道，“你总不能把别人送到中国或印度去理发吧。”而且，现在还没有能理发的机器人，没有能够搀扶患有老年痴呆症的老妇人的机器人，也没有能够处理空乘人员那些杂务的机器人。

The U.S. government releases its latest snapshot of the job market Friday morning amid worrisome signs that economic growth is slowing well short of full employment.
目前美国出现了经济增长放缓、就业远远不够充分的令人担忧的迹象，在此背景之下美国政府最近公布了最新的就业初步数据。

But economists see a couple of longer-term trends. Dividing the workforce into high, medium and lower-skill workers, they note that around the world, demand for the most skilled and educated - from engineers to specialized factory workers - has been relatively strong. But globalization and technology have eroded demand for routine middle-skill, middle wage jobs: In factories, assembly jobs have been eliminated by automation or moved overseas; in offices, tasks once done by humans are done by computers and voice-response software.
经济学家从中发现了一些长期趋势。他们将所有劳动力划分为高级技能人员、中级技能人员和低级技能人员，他们指出全球范围而言就业市场对技能最高、教育程度也最高的人员（工程师、特殊技能工厂工人等）的需求相对比较强。然而，全球化和科技的发展削弱了美国国内对常规的中等技能和中等薪资的岗位的需求。例如，工厂中的装配岗位因为自动化或是迁往海外而消失，而以往由人处理的办公室事务如今也改由电脑和语音应答软件处理。

At the same time, Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist David Autor notes an increase in personal-service jobs - the ones that can't be done remotely from overseas and can't easily be done by machines. To measure this, Mr. Autor and MIT's Daron Acemoglu sliced the U.S. workforce into 318 occupations, ranked by skill and education. Between 1989 and 2007 - just before the recession - they found a 5% increase in routinized production, machine-operator and clerical jobs - but a 36% increase in personal-service jobs and a 40% increase in top-of-the-pyramid jobs, such as managers, professionals and finance wizards.
与此同时，麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的经济学家戴维•奥托尔(David Autor)注意到个人服务岗位──那些无法外包到海外操作的工作或是不易用机器操作的工作──有所增加。为了评估这一状况，奥托尔和麻省理工学院的达伦•阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)依据技能和教育程度的高低将美国的从业人员细分为318个岗位。他们发现，在1989年至衰退即将发生之前的2007年期间，常规的生产岗位、机器操作岗位以及文书岗位增加了5%，但个人服务岗位增加了36%，而处于金字塔顶尖的岗位，例如管理人员、专业人士和金融人才岗位的增幅则高达40%。

This polarization of the job market has persisted. Between 2007 and 2010, the total number of jobs in the U.S. fell by nearly 6%, but the previous pattern held: The number of middle-skill jobs, those most susceptible to automation or offshoring, fell by 12%. The number of high-end, high-education jobs fell by 1%. But despite the recession, there was a 2% increase in personal-service jobs.
美国就业市场这种两极分化的状况一直都在持续。在2007年至2010年期间，美国的就业岗位总数下降了近6%，但之前那种两极分化的模式依然存在。其中，最易受到自动化操作或海外外包冲击的中等技能的工作岗位数量下降了12%，教育程度高的高端工作岗位的数量减少了1%。然而，尽管经济发生衰退，个人服务岗位却增加了2%。

Geraldine Arguello, 45, is a nurse's assistant at Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living in rural Raton, N.M., where she prepares meals, assists with dressing and grooming and organizes bingo games.
45岁的杰拉尔丁•阿奎罗(Geraldine Arguello)是新墨西哥州拉顿市(Raton)郊区老年人服务中心Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living的一名护士助理，她的工作内容包括做饭、协助老人们穿衣、梳洗和安排宾戈游戏。

'People say anybody can do this, but it takes a lot to earn trust,' she says. 'You're providing mental stability for residents that are swallowing the fact that they're depending on others at this point to get by.' The pay isn't great, though. She makes about $10 an hour, occasionally as much as $15 an hour when she works in an individual's home.
阿奎罗说，“人们都说这个工作谁都可以干，但是它需要你付出很多来赢得信任，你要使正在消化他们现在要依靠别人来过活这一事实的老人保持心理上的稳定。”这份工作的工资并不高，一小时大概是10美元，如果去单个客户的家中上门服务一小时则可挣到15美元。

More jobs are better than fewer jobs - particularly for those who would otherwise be unemployed. But Mr. Autor cautions: 'These aren't going to be high-paying jobs because the skills are quite generic. Anyone can be productive at them in the next day or two. If you had to choose which jobs you'd want to go away, you'd pick these low-wage jobs, not the middle-skill ones.'
工作机会增加总比工作机会减少要好，对于那些要不然就会失业的人来说尤为如此。但是，奥托尔提醒道，“这些都不是工资高的岗位，因为它们涉及的技能都是相当通用的，任何人做这些工作一两天之后都能非常熟练掌握。如果你必须选择你不想做哪些工作，你会选那些工资低的而不是中等技能的工作。”