电力短缺 印度大国崛起中的阿喀琉斯之踵

In India, a power outage is not a big deal. On my first day at the newsmagazineIndia Today, when the lights cut out and my computer zapped to black, no one seemed to skip a beat. And why would they? This happens all the time in Delhi, and -- my coworkers assured me -- everywhere else in India. Moments later, our Chai wallahs had left their post by the steaming cauldron of milky tea to start the generators, which were kept on hand because this happened all the time and was not a big deal. By the time I left the country I was similarly inured to the regular irregularities of life there.

在印度，停电不是什么大事。笔者抵达新闻杂志《今日印度》（India Today）的第一天就遇到了停电。突然之间，灯全灭了，电脑也黑屏了，可大家似乎都不以为意。有什么必要大惊小怪呢？毕竟，在德里，停电是常有的事，而且我的同事很确定地告诉我，印度每个地方都会停电。过了一会儿，报社的茶博士离开热气腾腾的奶茶锅，去启动发电机。发电机是常备物品，因为停电经常发生，人们已经司空见惯了。我离开印度的时候，对这种“正常的”不正常生活也已经习以为常。

So it's amazing that so much of the Indian response to the largest single power outage in world history, which left nearly a tenth of the world's population powerless, is anger, tinged with embarrassment. It's a terribly irresponsible thing to make generalizations about a democracy of 1.2 billion with 35 regional languages, but allow me one: Indians are supremely unflappable. They have to be. The power cuts out, the water does not run, and the most basic tasks can quickly turn Sisyphean in the face of a crazy-complex bureaucracy. The Times of India captured the situation perfectly in a report on power minister Veerappa Moily. Moily was just appointed on Tuesday, during the crises, and in the middle of a television appearance to restore public confidence in the government his interview was cut off...by a blackout.

所以，当印度发生世界历史上最大规模的一次停电时，大多数印度人的反应竟然是愤怒中带着一丝尴尬，这让我很是吃惊。此次停电导致世界约十分之一的人口处于断电状态。对一个拥有12亿人口、35种方言的民主国家一概而论是种不负责的行为，但请允许我这么说：印度人非常镇定。因为，他们别无选择。停电、停水，即便最基本的任务，在纷繁复杂的官僚主义面前，也会变成永远无法解决的难题。《印度时报》（The Times of India ）对电力部长维拉帕•莫伊利进行的采访报道完美地反映了这种情形。周二，莫伊利临危受命，刚刚被任命为电力部长。当时他正在电视上接受采访，希望恢复公众对政府的信心，结果采访被迫中断，因为——停电了。

India's energy problems are probably only going to get worse before they get better. Though the exact cause of Monday and Tuesday's outages are unclear, the national demand has outpaced capacity, and energy is sold for less than the cost to produce it. The system is still heavily reliant on coal -- which, ironically, it cannot mine when the power goes out; miners were trapped on Tuesday -- and hydroelectric. An estimated 20% of India's grid comes from dams, which rely on the seasonal monsoon, a dicey proposition in a changing climate. The rains have not come on as strong this year, and may not again next year. India's constant outages caused a loss in sales of at least 6.6% in 2006, the most recent year statistics are available, the World Bank reported. It is likely a greater loss of sales in 2012.

印度的能源问题只会愈演愈烈。目前，周一与周二停电的具体原因尚不明确，但印度的电力需求早已超出发电容量，而且电力价格远远低于生产成本。印度发电系统严重依赖于燃煤发电和水力发电，而讽刺的是，停电的时候，煤矿也不得不停止开采。周二停电时就有矿工被困井下。预计印度电网20%的电量来自水力发电，而水力发电很大程度上依赖于季节性的雨季。由于气候条件变幻莫测，这种发电形式并不稳定。今年，印度降雨量低于往年，而且明年可能依然如此。世界银行（World Bank）的报告称，2006年，印度因持续停电造成的产品销售损失至少达到6.6%，这是目前可以拿到的最新数据。2012年，印度产品销售损失可能更为惨重。

So what to do besides complain and shrug this off as yet another failing of an ineffective government? Have a backup plan -- and one better than a diesel generator. Green energy is a great possibility, and many Indian startups are already beginning to instal micro-grids to distribute solar and wind power to villages. A company called Selco makes and installs solar panels for about $200, while another, called Simpra Networks, will sell the excess energy generated by these panels to customers who place orders on their phones. These aren't simply a viable replacement to the bulky, noisy engines that powered up my office in Delhi, but a way to begin to bring electricity to the 300 million Indians who don't have access to it in the first place. To them, Blackout Tuesday didn't even register, but it might be just the sort of disaster required for everyone else to wake up, get angry, and start fixing things.

那么，除了对效率低下的政府表示抱怨和无奈外，印度人还能做什么？制定备份计划——同时也应该是比柴油发电机更好的方案。绿色能源是一个很好的选择，目前，许多印度初创企业已经开始安装微型电网，向乡村提供太阳能发电和风能发电。其中，一家名为Selco的公司可以以200美元的价格制作、安装太阳能电池板，而另外一家公司Simpra Networks则向消费者出售利用太阳能电池板产生的电力。消费者只需电话下单即可。当然，要用这些方式代替无数体积庞大、噪声震耳的发电机，并非切实可行的办法；但至少通过这些方法，无法自备发电机的3亿印度人已经能够用上电了。对这3亿人来说，周二大停电或许没有任何影响，然而面对如此大规模的事故，其他所有人都应该警醒、愤怒，并着手找出解决问题的办法。