正文
亚洲消费者购物热情减退
Asian consumers have kept their countries' economies humming while exports to Europe and the U.S., long key sources of growth, have been a drag. Now there are signs consumer spending also is ticking down, which is bad news for one of the global economy's few bright spots.
在对欧洲和美国的出口成为拖累经济增长的不利因素的情况下,亚洲消费者成了保持该地区各个国家经济活力的重要力量。而如今却有迹象表明,亚洲消费者支出数量也在下降。对于全球经济少数亮点之一的亚洲地区来说,这是一个坏消息。长期以来,对欧美的出口是亚洲国家经济增长的重要因素。
Koreans are buying fewer cars. Chinese consumers are cutting back on new clothes. There aren't as many shoppers lining up outside Louis Vuitton boutiques in Hong Kong. Bets at the baccarat tables in casinos in Macau and Singapore - a proxy for Chinese tourism and consumer spending - have grown more slowly than in the previous three years.
韩国人购置新车的数量减少,中国消费者削减了添置新衣的支出。香港路易威登(Louis Vuitton)门店外排队的购物者数量没有以往那么多了。澳门和新加坡赌场赌桌上赌注──这是观察中国旅游业和消费支出的一个窗口──的增长速度和前三年相比慢了不少。
Some economists say that in recent months, the high-performing consumer sector across much of Asia has lost its edge. Many shopkeepers and business owners say they are feeling the effects of the cautious consumer.
一些经济学家说,最近几个月,亚洲大部分地区曾经表现突出的消费业已经失去了优势。许多店主和企业主说,他们已经感到消费者谨慎消费带来的影响。
'The spending power is less than before,' said Shawkat Imran, chef and part-owner of several Italian restaurants in Hong Kong. 'Sometimes customers come, they share food. Some who used to drink a glass of wine now order a glass of water.'
大厨伊姆兰(Shawkat Imran)说,顾客的消费能力不及以往了,有时顾客到店里会几个人分享一道美食,原来会点一杯葡萄酒的顾客现在只会点一杯水了。伊姆兰在香港多家意大利餐厅拥有股份。
The number of customers hasn't dropped, Mr. Imran said, but they are sharing dishes and spending 20% less per bill.
伊姆兰说,顾客数量没有下降,但顾客现在经常会几个人分享一道美食,每餐消费金额降低了20%。
The shift in sentiment is subtle, and there isn't yet evidence that spending has plunged as it did in Spain and Greece. But in many economies, spending growth has ebbed from high levels. Should Europe and the U.S. continue to slide and Asia's trade picture get worse, Asian consumers will eventually be forced to cut back in more meaningful ways.
市场情绪的转变并不明显,目前还没有证据表明亚洲地区的消费支出像西班牙和希腊那样大幅下降。但亚洲很多经济体的消费支出增速已经从高位下滑。如果欧洲和美国继续衰退,且亚洲的贸易前景进一步恶化,那么亚洲消费者最终将被迫大幅削减消费开支。
The loss of the robust consumer - while not considered a given by most economists - would 'represent the next leg down for Asia's economies,' said Nigel Chalk, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund who now heads emerging-markets research at Barclays Capital in Singapore.
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡新兴市场研究负责人乔克(Nigel Chalk)说,失去强大的消费者──大多数经济学家并不认为强劲的消费是一个默认的前提条件──将成为亚洲经济体所遭受的下一个冲击。乔克曾在国际货币基金组织(IMF)任经济学家。