"隐形燃料"确保未来能源安全

When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others.
当能源经济学家透过水晶球预言二十年后世界的景象时，有些情况要比其他方面更加清晰。

Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’s natural resources.
最明确的是，世界人口将会增加，世界经济也会随之增长。随着各国变得更加富有，他们对能源的需求也会增加，因而不断给地球自然资源带来新的压力。

A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions.
然而，进一步观察对能源需求的预测，就会得出一些令人惊讶的结论。

Consider ExxonMobil’s annual energy outlook to 2040. The company says that total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 per cent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: Exxon says global GDP will expand by 135 per cent over the same period. What is more, in the world’s advanced economies – Europe, North America and Japan – energy demand will not grow at all.
来看看埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)到2040年的年度能源展望。该公司指出，总的能源需求在增加：2040年，世界能源需求量将比现在增加35%。与世界经济整体相比，这一增长率根本不算什么。埃克森指出，同一时期，全球GDP将会增长135%。此外，在欧洲、北美、日本等发达经济体，能源需求根本不会增长。

The reason for this is energy efficiency. “The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently,” says Bill Colton, Exxon’s vice-president for corporate strategy, and one of the authors of the outlook. “Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way.”
原因就是能源效率。埃克森美孚负责企业战略规划的副总裁比尔•科尔顿(Bill Colton)说：“未来最大的能源来源就是更加有效地利用能源。通过这种方式将节约大量的能源。”科尔顿也是能源展望的作者之一。

In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency – called the “invisible fuel” by some – is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.
在应对气候变化的过程中，可再生能源一直被认为是良方。理由就是用风能和太阳能代替化石燃料会降低碳排放，因而减缓甚至阻止全球变暖，并限制消费国对昂贵的进口石油和天然气的严重依赖。但在关于能源未来的争论中，能源效率的主题，也就是一些人所说“隐形燃料”，将更加突出。消费者开始了解，他们没有使用的能源几乎与使用的能源会产生同样的影响。

The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. That means the future of energy is no longer the preserve of oil companies, wind farm developers and government officials, but of everyone from architects and appliance manufacturers to civil engineers and carmakers. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps.
结果就是从建筑设计到街道照明的理念都发生转变。这意味着能源的未来不再只是石油公司、风力发电站、政府官员的节约，还包括从建筑师、设备制造商、到土木工程师和汽车制造商。一个看似很小的技术变化就可以节约大量能源，比如空间加热的燃气锅炉到加热泵的转变。