四面楚歌 苹果日子将更加难过

Being in fourth place in the world’s hottest technology market turns out not to be a winning proposition. But is third much better? And might even second place become a less comfortable spot to be in?
事实证明，在全球最火热的科技市场名列第四不算站稳脚跟。然而，难道第三名就会好得多？有没有可能连第二名也会变得不那么舒服？

Those are the inevitable questions prompted by the news this week that BlackBerry is ready to throw in the towel. As with all giant markets, it is tempting to think there is room for several players, some of them thriving on small market shares with niche strategies.
以上是最近黑莓(BlackBerry)准备认输的新闻传出后不可避免会引发的疑问。与所有规模巨大的市场一样，人们会忍不住认为市场有足够空间容纳多个玩家，其中一些借助小众战略和很小的市场份额，发展得欣欣向荣。

But the competitiveness of technology ecosystems depends on their relative, not absolute, scale. Some 80 per cent of handsets shipped in the second quarter ran on Android, according to the latest figures from IDC. Even if many of those are low-end devices and incompatibility between them continues to make life hard for developers, the Android ecosystem is starting to exert a powerful pull.
然而科技生态系统的竞争力取决于相对而不是绝对规模。根据IDC的最新数据，二季度出货的手机中大约80%安装的是安卓(Android)系统。就算这些手机中许多只是低端手机，手机之间的不兼容性继续令开发者头疼，但安卓的生态系统已开始产生强大吸引力。

It doesn’t matter, for instance, that BlackBerry is still selling as many handsets as Apple did when it launched the App Store – a time when Apple was the focus of the entire mobile development world. Mindshare among consumers and developers is all. On that measure, BlackBerry lost a long time ago.
比如说，黑莓现在手机销售量仍然和苹果(Apple)刚推出应用商店(App Store)时（当时苹果是整个移动开发世界关注的焦点）一样，但是这根本不重要。在消费者和开发者的意识中占据的“品牌影响力份额”才是一切。以这个标准衡量，黑莓早就输了。

Like the cartoon Road Runner going off the edge of a cliff, the Canadian company has been spinning its legs without visible means of support for some time. Its subscriber base peaked less than a year ago, but its competitiveness had eroded long before that.
正如动画《哔哔鸟和大笨狼》中大笨狼怀尔跑出悬崖的样子，这家加拿大公司在没有任何可见支撑的情况下双腿打转有一段时间了。其用户在不到一年前达到顶峰并开始下跌，而其竞争力很久前就已遭到侵蚀。

With BlackBerry ready to fold, do things get any better for those who are left? Microsoft may draw some comfort from seeing off a rival, but Windows Phone still has less than 4 per cent of the market. Much as mobile operators would like to see an alternative to Android and Apple’s iOS, the success of a third mobile ecosystem is not ordained.
黑莓打算翻牌认输了，那些剩下的竞争者日子会好过点么？少了一个对手，微软(Microsoft)可能会得到些许宽慰，但是Windows Phone的市场占有率仍然低于4%。尽管移动运营商也许很愿意看到在安卓和苹果(Apple)公司的iOS之外还有另一个选择，然而这第三个移动生态系统的成功是没有保障的。

The more intriguing question, though, surrounds the iPhone. Apple’s market share has fallen to around 13 per cent. It has been at more or less this level before, in the down quarters before the launch of new iPhones. But in relative terms, Android has never looked stronger.
不过，还有一个更耐人寻味的问题，这个问题是有关iPhone的。苹果的市场份额已经下跌至13%左右。在发布新款iPhone前的销售低迷季度，苹果的份额也曾或多或少处于这个水平。然而相对来说，安卓看起来从未像今天这样强大。

On almost every measure that counts, the company that invented the touchscreen smartphone either already has been – or soon will be – consigned to the number two position. It happened in hardware sales first: having first overtaken Apple nearly two years ago, Samsung shipped more than twice as many handsets as its US rival in the most recent quarter, according to IDC.
在几乎每个重要的指标上，发明了触摸屏智能手机的苹果要么已经屈居第二，要么即将让出头把交椅。这种情况首先发生在硬件销售方面：根据IDC的数据，在差不多两年前超过苹果之后，三星最近一季度手机出货量超过其美国竞争对手的两倍。

It is now happening in apps. As we reported two months ago, Apple is on the verge of giving up its lead in app downloads. The average Android customer may use fewer apps, but there are a lot more of them and that is starting to turn the heads of developers.
同样的故事如今正在应用领域上演。正如我们两个月前所报道的，苹果即将丢掉其在应用下载量方面的头号排名。虽然安卓顾客一般使用的应用数量可能要少一些，但是安卓用户人数多得多，这一点正开始令开发者转向。

The next significant bragging right that Apple is in danger of losing is its leading share of smartphone industry profits. Apple almost certainly still leads Samsung in this department. The profit margin on the iPhone comfortably exceeds its margin on other products. But unless the expected launch of a new, lower-priced iPhone can stop the rot, Apple will probably be overwhelmed in the profit stakes by the sheer volumes of its arch-rival, as growth shifts to more price sensitive markets.
下一个苹果原本引以为豪，现在却可能丢失的重要阵地是其在智能手机行业居领先地位的利润份额。在这方面，苹果几乎肯定仍胜过三星一筹。苹果在iPhone上的利润率毫无悬念地超出了其在其他产品上的利润率。但是，除非预期将要发布的新型低价iPhone阻止顾客流失，随着增长重心转向更为价格敏感的市场，苹果在利润份额上很可能被其劲敌的庞大出货量打败。

There is one important measure on which Apple still has an edge: the money that app developers and content producers earn on its mobile platform. That still makes the iOS a powerful draw for developers and guarantees Apple the all-important premium experiences that have kept buyers coming back for more when upgrade time comes around. If the revamped iOS7 interface is a hit with users and Apple continues to create a richer and more profitable environment for developers, then the core propositions on which the iPhone empire was built will remain in place.
苹果还有一项重要的指标仍处于领先地位：应用开发者和内容供应商在其移动平台上的盈利。这一点令iOS对开发者仍然极具吸引力，并且是苹果至关重要的出色用户体验的保障，正是这种出色体验使得客户在苹果产品升级换代时再度掏钱购买。如果焕然一新的iOS 7界面能够一炮打响，而苹果继续为开发者建立一个功能更丰富、更易于盈利的环境，那么苹果赖以打造iPhone帝国的核心竞争力将依然存在。

But volume matters. And when it comes to the numbers, Android’s momentum is now impossible to ignore.
然而，出货量十分重要。而就数量而言，安卓的发展势头无法忽视。

This has left Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, in a difficult position. If he can’t convince iOS developers that he will build a bigger marketplace for them, their attention will continue to drift to Android. But the lower-priced iPhone needed to expand the iOS universe will dilute overall profit margins and may even cannibalise sales of the high-end devices.
这令苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)陷入棘手处境。如果他无法说服iOS开发者相信他将为他们打造一个更大的市场，他们的注意力将继续转向安卓。然而扩展iOS生态系统所需的低价iPhone会稀释整体利润率，甚至可能蚕食高端产品的销售。

Logic suggests that Wall Street should get over its fixation on Apple’s slipping profit margin. Grabbing a bigger share of the overall profits is what matters now. A business model in transition, though, is guaranteed to unnerve investors. With activist investor Carl Icahn also now breathing down his neck, Mr Cook’s job is not about to get any easier.
按照逻辑，华尔街应该克服对苹果不断下滑的利润率的迷恋。目前，重要的是争夺更大份额的总体利润。有维权投资者卡尔•伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)这样的人时刻盯着，库克的工作不会轻松。