黄金泡沫破碎 金价大跌

十一月为坚信黄金价值的投资者带来了新的不利消息：该月黄金价格下降6%，是6月以来单月下降最多的月份，使2013年度的黄金投资形式更为严峻，也结束了长达13年的黄金市场繁荣。黄金价格今年已经下跌了25%，是自2000年以来的首次。

相比之下，两年前黄金市场正直旺季。2011年9月，金价达到历史最高点每盎司1921美元，十年间上涨了550%。金融危机期间投资者热衷黄金投资，因为一般来说股票、债券、现金走势不利时黄金价格会上涨。

由于各国央行不断向经济注资，对通货膨胀的恐慌使得黄金投资更为诱人。但是随着欧债危机缓和，美国及其他国家经济出现复苏征兆，投资者减轻了对通胀的担忧。

人们发现更多的著名投资者已经离开黄金投资市场。美联储宣布在就业和经济增长看好的基础上放宽债券购买，这一消息直接引发了金价的下跌。

市场开始更加追逐风险，不再保守地将资产稳定在没有利息和红利收益的黄金投资上，美国股票价格也创下空前新高。

荷兰银行的乔吉特·伯勒说：“黄金泡沫已经破碎，此前支持黄金投资的推手可能会让贵金属价格降得更低。我们预计会出现更大规模的抛售。”

伯勒估计，尽管有中国市场的支持，金价还是会在明年跌至每盎司1000美元，到2015年跌至每盎司800美元。

November brought more bad news for believers in the eternal power ofgold: the commodity saw its sharpest monthly price fall since June. This month's 6% drop makes 2013 a terrible year for gold, and is set to mark the end of a 13-year boom. Gold is heading for its first annual fall since 2000 after shedding a quarter of its value this year.

Things were so different in September 2011, when it hit a record price of $1,921 an ounce, a gain of more than 550% in just over a decade. Investors had piled in during the financial crisis: the price of gold traditionally rises when assets such as shares, bonds and cash are threatened.

Gold maintained its allure as central banks pumped money into their economies, raising fears of runaway inflation. But then the easing of fears for the eurozone, and signs of economic recovery in the US and other economies, steadied nerves.

There were few starker signs of the reversal of gold's fortunes than the news that Britain's second-biggest pawnbroker was melting down stock to raise money. Last week Albemarle & Bond admitted it was smelting jewellery to sell for quick cash in order to stay within its lending limits. As recently as 2011 the company went on a gold-fuelled expansion spree and declared "the age of the pawnbroker".

More famous players have also been caught out. The gold fund of John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the US housing market, is down 63% this year.

The key to the fall is the improving US economy and the response of the Federal Reserve. Gold's troubles began when the Fed said it would ease off its bond purchase programme amid encouraging news on jobs and growth.

With less need to keep money tied up in gold, which pays no interest or dividend, the markets turned "risk-on": investors scrambled for new shares in Royal Mail and other flotations, and US shares are at all-time highs.

Georgette Boele at Dutch bank ABN Amro said: "The gold bubble has burst and ... more of gold's previous supportive drivers are about to push the precious metal much lower. As such we expect additional large sell-offs."

In India, traditionally the world's biggest consumer of gold, the government has imposed punishing duty on gold purchases which has led to mass recycling of some of the 20,000 tonnes of gold stashed in Indian homes.

Consumers in China have been buying gold as they become more affluent. But Boele predicts that despite this, it will fall to $1,000 an ounce next year and $800 in 2015.