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若离开阿里巴巴 雅虎价值几何

2013-12-28来源:和谐英语
Analysts say Yahoo's core business should be valued at around four to six times 2014 Ebitda -- more like a print media asset. It is difficult to say where that business trades now because so much rests on Alibaba's IPO. Estimates of Alibaba's value range from $100 billion to $190 billion. To complicate calculations, Yahoo must sell 40% of its stake at the IPO, with the rest to be sold at its discretion, theoretically for more if Alibaba's stock rises.
分析师们说,雅虎的核心业务价值约为2014年息税折旧摊销前收益的四到六倍──更类似于平面媒体的估值。很难判断这块业务目前的价值,因为很大程度上将取决于阿里巴巴的IPO。阿里巴巴的估值在1,000亿美元至1,900亿美元。令计算更复杂的是,雅虎必须在IPO之时出售其所持股份的40%,其余部分由雅虎自己决定是否出售,理论上如果阿里巴巴股价上涨,则能以更高价格卖出。

In one scenario, UBS estimates Alibaba will list at a $100 billion valuation, which will then climb to $160 billion.
其中一种设想的情况是,瑞银(UBS)估计阿里巴巴将以1,000亿美元的估值上市,随后将攀升至1,600亿美元。

Using this assumption, if Yahoo sold the remaining 60% of its stake at that price, its total after-tax proceeds could be $20.3 billion, or about $20 a share. Yahoo's 35% stake in Yahoo Japan adds roughly another $7 a share after tax.
按照这种假想,如果雅虎以上涨后的阿里巴巴股价出售其所持的其余60%股份,其税后总收益可能达到203亿美元,约合每股20美元。雅虎所持的35%雅虎日本(Yahoo Japan)股份会让每股税收收益再增加大约7美元。

Taking that $27 and net cash of $3.11 a share on Yahoo's books at the end of the third quarter off the current share price leaves $10.96 a share. That implies a $11.1 billion valuation for Yahoo's core business, or 7.1 times 2014 Ebitda -- pricey relative to analyst models. And that likely understates the multiple, since Alibaba's high-margin royalty payments would need to be factored out of Yahoo's Ebitda.
从雅虎当前股价中减去上面计算出来的27美元以及雅虎第三季度末账面上的每股现金3.11美元,得到的是每股10.96美元。这意味着雅虎核心业务估值为1,110亿美元,以2014年预期息税折旧摊销前收益计算的市盈率为7.1倍──相比分析师假定的情况来说过高了。而且这还有可能低估了这个倍数,因为阿里巴巴支付的高利润许可费需要从雅虎的息税折旧摊销前收益中剔除。

Investors can only guess at what Yahoo will look like underneath its designer wardrobe. But chances are it will look more like Gannett than Google.
投资者只能猜测雅虎光彩夺目的外表下面是何种真面目。但它很可能更类似于媒体公司Gannett,而不是像谷歌这样的互联网公司。