养老金阴谋:你给退休存的钱可能太多了

Are you saving too much for retirement? Can you believe I'm even asking that question?
你的养老金是不是存得太多了？或者你认为这个问题本身就很无厘头？

Full disclosure: The folks at Morningstar Investment Management, specifically head of retirement research David Blanchett, asked it first. He found that for many people the answer is yes -- by an average of 20%. That, as Blanchett acknowledges, is a big deal. "Retirement is, by and large, the most expensive purchase of anyone's lifetime," he says. "For people who think they need $1 million but find they only need $800,000, it is a big difference."
而事实是这样的：晨星投资管理公司（Morningstar Investment Management）退休研究部主管大卫?布兰切特率先提出了这个问题，而且他发现， 20%左右的人对这个问题的回答是肯定的。布兰切特认为情况有些严重，他说：“养老储蓄金毫无疑问是大多数人人生最大的一笔投入。但想象和现实差距很大，人们以为自己需要存上100万美元来养老，实际上只要80万就够了。”

So how do you figure out whether it applies to you? You have to take a step back and look at both the retirement saving goals you've set for yourself and your current spending.
那么，这种情况是否也出现在你身上？大家最好还是重新审视一下自己的养老储蓄计划，以及目前的开销。

There has long been a rule of thumb that says you should plan to replace 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income (that is, your final annual salary before you retire) in retirement -- and that that number should be adjusted upward, with inflation, each year. In real life, data from the Survey of Consumer Finances shows, spending, and therefore the amount you'll need, isn't that linear.
长期以来，根据概测法，人们应该存下退休前收入（即退休前的最终年收入）的70%到80%作为养老金。而且，算上通货膨胀的话，这个比例还应该逐年上调。但美国消费者金融调查报告（Survey of Consumer Finances）的数据显示，人们的实际开销并不会因为通胀的影响而上涨。

People in their mid-40s to 50s spend the most. (As someone right in the middle of that range with one child in college and another starting in 18 months, I can totally see why that's the case.) From there, spending starts to decline as -- typically -- the kids leave the nest, you downsize, retire the mortgage (although that's getting less common), ditch the extra car, etc., etc., until medical needs drive expenses up again toward the end of life. Bottom line, the amount people need to replace varies from under 54% of pre-retirement income to over 87%.
通常，四十五至五十岁的人群开销最大。（这个年龄段的人通常要负担一个上大学的孩子，同时抚养一个一两岁的小家伙。）但之后，开支就逐渐减少了，尤其是等到孩子们都成年以后，父母们就会缩减开销，取消房贷抵押（尽管这种情况越来越少），处理掉多余的汽车。这种状态一直持续到晚年，直到医疗和交通方面的开销出现增长。根据年龄段的不同，人们退休后的年均最低花费在退休前收入中的占比从低于54%到超过87%不等。

For average earners, whose pre-retirement income is roughly $56,000, this is welcome news, says Michael Falcon, Head of Retirement at JP Morgan Asset Management. Their annual spending in retirement seems not to be escalating as previously thought from around $43,000 at age 65 to nearly $80,000 at age 90 (due to inflation); instead, it climbs only to around $50,000. Social Security can cover a significant chunk of that.
摩根大通资产管理公司（JP Morgan Asset Management）退休部的主管迈克尔?法尔孔说，这对于年收入约5.6万美元的中等收入人群是个鼓舞人心的消息：这部分人群退休后的年度开支并没有像当初预料的那样，从65岁时所需的4.3万美元增长到90岁时的8万美元（受通胀影响），而是仅仅止步于5万美元左右。其中，社保资金弥补了相当大的缺口。