如何制定更理性的新年计划

Organizations can generally make gains by adopting rational procedures enforced from the top, but Dr. Kahneman is skeptical of how much individuals can change.
机构团体一般都能够从采纳自上而下执行的理性程序中受益，但卡内曼博士对个人能改变多少持怀疑态度。

Dr. Stanovich is more optimistic. It is true that automatic biases can't be removed, he says, but people can train themselves to slow down and question these biases, and learn other mechanisms -- even something as simple as deliberately thinking of the effect of the opposite decision -- that may counteract such biases.
斯塔诺维奇博士则更为乐观。他说，自然而然的偏见确实不能消除，但人们可以训练自己减缓和质疑这些偏见，并学会其他也许能抵消这些偏见的机制──甚至是像审慎考虑相反决定的后果这样简单的事情。

Max Tegmark, a physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he 'already had a high level of rationalism' but found the CFAR workshop useful.
麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)物理学家马克斯·泰格马克(Max Tegmark)说他“已经具备很高的理性程度”，不过还是发现CFAR的讲习班很有用。

'I had this huge to-do list with over a thousand things on it, and I found I wasn't looking at it very often because whenever I did, I just got this depressing feeling of being overwhelmed by my failure to accomplish stuff, ' says Dr. Tegmark. After the March workshop in Berkeley, Calif., the 46-year-old developed an improved system for tackling emails by writing a program that responds to routine emails with automated messages. He also got better at staying on track with long-term projects. 'I learned that if I want Max to do something in December, I should think about December Max as a different person, ' he says. Instead of just putting a reminder to do something in a few months, he'll plan ahead and send email reminders and incentives for his 'future self.'
泰格马克博士说：“我制定了一份庞大的任务清单，单子上列了1000多件事情，我发现我并不会经常看它，因为每当我去看它时，我就会因为受不了自己做不成那些事情而产生一种沮丧的感觉。”在3月份于加州伯克利参加了讲习班后，46岁的泰格马克写了一个以自动生成的信息回复日常邮件的程序，由此开发了一个跟踪邮件的升级系统。他在坚持长期项目方面也做得更好了。他说：“我了解到如果我要马克斯在12月份做些事情，我应该把12月的马克斯想象成一个不同的人。”他不只是记上要在几个月后做某件事的提醒，而是提前计划，给“未来的自己”发送邮件提醒和激励。

Another March attendee, Estonian computer programmer and Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn, says the workshop helped him improve his fitness plan. After analyzing his actions, Mr. Tallinn, 41, realized that he was avoiding exercise mostly because his routine was too long. He designed a shorter routine with different exercises that he finds it easier to stick to. (Mr. Tallinn is an investor in the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, which is affiliated with CFAR.)
爱沙尼亚电脑程序员、Skype的联合创始人扬·塔林(Jaan Tallinn)也在3月份参加了讲习班。他说讲习班帮助他改进了他的健身计划。在分析了自己的行动后，41岁的塔林意识到他逃避健身主要是因为他的那个日常计划太长了，于是他拟定了一个他认为更容易坚持的包含不同锻炼项目的较短期的计划。（塔林为隶属于CFAR的机器智能研究所(Machine Intelligence Research Institute)的投资者。）

That individuals -- as well as markets and corporations -- don't always behave rationally is a tenet of behavioral economics.
个人──连同市场及企业──并不总是理性行事是行为经济学的一大信条。

Scholars of behavioral economics, including Dr. Kahneman, have attempted to tease out the factors behind individuals' and investors' shifting risk tolerances and decisions.
包括卡内曼博士在内，行为经济学的学者曾尝试理出个人及投资者的风险容忍度和决策不断变化背后的因素。

Behavioral economics, which has gained ground among academic economists over the past several decades, departs from traditional notions by assuming that individuals don't always behave rationally and act in their own best interests. Thus we have market bubbles in which investors inflate stocks or homes way above their rational value.
过去数十年来，行为经济学在学院派经济学家中得到了发展，它与传统观念不同，认为个人的行为并不总是理性的，并且总是按照自己的最大利益行事。因此，我们会看到市场泡沫，投资者将股票或房产的价格抬高到远远高于它们合理价值的水平。