第一大战爆发100周年 世界不该这么快遗忘警示

A century has passed since the guns of August 1914 ended the era of European predominance with a deafening bang. Could such a catastrophe recur in our time?
1914年8月，欧洲占主导地位的时代在震耳欲聋的枪炮声中结束。如今100年时间过去了，此类灾难还会在我们的时代重演吗？

The sequence of events since the Malaysian jet MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine is remarkably similar to the one that followed the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914. Now, as then, the crisis begins with an act of state-sponsored terrorism. Now, as then, Russia sides with the troublemakers. Even the request by the Dutch government for access to the site where so many of their nationals perished is reminiscent of the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia. Now, as then, ownership of a seemingly unimportant region of eastern Europe is disputed.
自马航MH17航班在乌克兰东部上空被击落以来发生的一系列事件，与1914年6月奥地利大公弗朗茨•斐迪南(Franz Ferdinand)被刺杀之后的事件极为相似。现在和当时一样，危机始于一场政府支持的恐怖主义行动。现在和当时一样，俄罗斯与麻烦制造者站在一边。甚至荷兰政府提出的进入坠机现场的要求（许多荷兰公民在此次事件中丧生），也令人想起当年奥地利对塞尔维亚发出的最后通牒。现在和当时一样，东欧一个貌似不起眼地区的所有权引发了争议。

In 1914 it was Bosnia-Herzegovina, formerly an Ottoman province, annexed by Austria-Hungary in 1908, but claimed by the proponents of a united South Slav state. Today we have not only the annexation of Crimea by Russia but also the potential secession from Ukraine of Donetsk and Lugansk, where pro-Russian separatists have proclaimed independent “people’s republics”.
1914年，引发争议的地区是波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那。该地区曾经是奥斯曼帝国的一个省，后来在1908年被奥匈帝国吞并，但统一南斯拉夫国家的支持者却对该地区宣称主权。现在，不仅俄罗斯吞并了克里米亚，而且顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克还有可能脱离乌克兰独立。在顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克，亲俄罗斯的分裂势力已经宣布成立独立的“人民共和国”。

And now, as then, the crisis is escalating. Even before the downing of MH17, Washington had tightened sanctions against Russia. This week both the US and the EU have taken the next step, imposing sanctions on whole sectors of the Russian economy, rather than just individuals and specific firms. The tighter the economic squeeze, the more President Vladimir Putin is cornered. In effect, the west is now confronting him with a choice between capitulation – ending his support for the separatists – or escalation – making sure that they are not crushed by the forces of the Kiev government. For a man like Mr Putin, the first option does not exist.
现在和当时一样，危机逐步恶化。甚至在马航MH17航班被击落之前，华盛顿就加大了对俄罗斯的制裁。上周，美国和欧盟全都采取进一步措施，对俄罗斯经济中的整个部门施加制裁，而不是仅仅针对个人和特定公司。经济制裁越严厉，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)就越有可能走投无路。实际上，西方现在正让普京面临选择，是屈从压力结束对分裂势力的支持，还是要确保他们不会被乌克兰政府军队击垮，从而加剧危机恶化。对于普京这样的人来说，第一个选项是不存在的。

The July crisis of 2014 therefore looks ominous. At the very least, the hope has now been dashed that a post-Soviet Russia could peacefully be integrated into a western world order based on free markets and democracy. At worst, what began as a little local difficulty in eastern Ukraine could be about to explode into a much larger struggle for mastery in Europe.
因此2014年7月的危机看起来是一个不祥之兆。最起码，苏联解体之后的俄罗斯和平融入建立在自由市场和民主基础之上的西方世界秩序的希望已经落空。而最坏的情况是，最初乌克兰东部一场小小的地方冲突，可能演变为一场规模大得多的争夺欧洲主导权的争斗。

So how to explain the relative equanimity of financial markets in the face of this gathering storm? Blame the historians. To those who subscribe to the view that the first world war had its origins in distinctive pathologies of early 20th-century Europe such as imperialism, militarism, nationalism and secret diplomacy, today’s crisis is nothing to worry about. For modern Europeans have renounced imperialism, have all but disarmed themselves, feel embarrassed by nationalism and conduct their diplomacy via Twitter rather than secret telegrams.
那么如何解释金融市场在风暴来临之际的相对平静呢？这要怪历史学家。有些人认为，一战的根源是20世纪初欧洲独有的诸多弊病，如帝国主义、军国主义、民族主义和秘密外交，对这些人来说，如今的危机没什么可担心的。因为现代欧洲人已经放弃了帝国主义，差不多解除了武装，对民族主义感到尴尬，并且通过Twitter而不是秘密电报来开展外交。

Even more complacent are those who insist on laying all the blame for 1914 on Germany. Today’s Germans prefer winning world cups to losing world wars. In almost every respect, Angela Merkel, their chancellor, is the historical antithesis of Kaiser Wilhelm II: female, democratically elected, supremely cautious and almost comically circumspect when asked what makes her feel proud to be German. (“Our well-sealed windows,” she once told Bild newspaper.)
那些将1914年战争全都归咎于德国的人甚至更加满不在乎。如今的德国更喜欢赢得世界杯，而不是输掉世界战争。从几乎所有方面来说，德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)就是德皇威廉二世(Kaiser Wilhelm II)的历史对立面：默克尔是女性、经由民主选举上台、极为谨慎，在被问及什么让她对身为德国人感到自豪的时候，她谨慎得近乎好笑——她曾经向《图片报》(Bild)表示：“是我们密封良好的窗户。”

Yet the narratives woven by historians over the past 100 years must be treated with caution. Whether they blame “isms” or Germans, the majority of academic explanations of the first world war suffer from a fundamental flaw. The deep-seated causes they posit seem largely to have been missed by contemporaries, for whom – with very few exceptions – the war came as a complete surprise.
然而我们必须谨慎对待历史学家对过去100年编织的故事。无论他们是怪罪于“主义”还是德国，对于一战的多数学术解释存在根本性的缺陷。他们假想的深层次原因似乎基本没有被他们同时代的人注意到，对后者来说（只有极少数人例外），一战完全是个意外。

As the year 1914 began, The New York Times looked forward to a “growing rapprochement between Germany, France and England” over the Balkans. “The British horizon in the direction of Germany seems to be clearing,” the Times also reported. In Germany “all signs” pointed to “numerous conflicts between the government . . . and the Social-Democratic party during the coming year”. Plans were afoot for an international conference in New York to celebrate “100 years of peace among English-speaking peoples”.
在进入1914年之际，《纽约时报》(The New York Times)预计“德国、法国和英国（围绕巴尔干地区）的争执会日趋缓和”。《泰晤士报》(The Times)还报道称，“从英国向德国方向看，视野似乎正变得清晰”。在德国，“所有迹象”都表明“政府……与社民党(Social-Democratic party)来年将冲突不断”。人们正计划在纽约举行国际大会，庆祝“讲英语国家的人民实现100年的和平”。

Among the best informed people in 1914 were the bankers of the City of London, who certainly stood to lose a lot of money in the event of a world war.
1914年消息最为灵通的人包括伦敦金融城(City of London)的银行家们——一旦爆发战争，这些人必然会损失许多钱。

Yet the correspondence of the Rothschilds, then the most powerful financial dynasty, reveals an almost total failure to anticipate the scale of the conflagration.
然而，从当时最为强大的金融王国——罗斯柴尔德(Rothschild)家族的信件来看，他们几乎完全未能预见到那次战火的规模。

As the Economist reported, it was only on July 31 – by which time fighting had begun – that the financial world saw “the meaning of war . . . in a flash”.
正如《经济学人》(The Economist)报道的那样，直到7月31日（那时战争已经爆发），金融世界才“瞬间……认识到战争的意义”。