中国急需一轮婴儿潮来避免经济萧条

'When you are 60 years old, who would support you?' the silver-haired Mr. Gu said to an audience of about 400 students, researchers and journalists last week.
白发苍苍的顾宝昌上周对约400名学生、研究人员和记者说，当你们到了60岁的时候，谁来养活你们呢？

Results of the most recent census in 2010 showed that China's fertility rates, or the number of births per 1,000 women, was 1.18. Large cities and Beijing and Shanghai were even lower, at around 0.7.
2010年最新人口普查结果显示，中国的生育率为1.18。生育率为每1,000名女性生育孩子的数量。北京和上海等大城市的生育率更低，约为0.7。

As China's urbanization rate increases, with more farmers moving into the city, the fertility rate will drop further due to higher living costs, said Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University.
北京大学教授梁建章说，随着越来越多的农民进入城市，中国的城市化率上升，更高的生活成本将令生育率进一步下降。

To make it worse, China is seeing a rising number of 'leftover women,' or middle-aged urban Chinese women who cannot find their Mr. Right--and unlike single women in developed nations, unmarried Chinese woman are not willing to have children, said Mr. Liang, who's also the founder and chairman of Ctrip.com, Chinese online travel company.
他说，更糟糕的是，中国出现越来越多的“剩女”，许多中年城市女性无法找到自己的白马王子，与发达国家的单身女性不同，未婚的中国女人不愿意生孩子。梁建章同时也是中国在线旅游公司携程旅行网(Ctrip.com)的创始人兼董事会主席。

'However you look at it, [the outlook of] China's fertility rate seems more pessimistic than a lot of other countries,' he said, adding that in 10 to 20 years, China's population will be greying at a pace even faster than that of a decade ago in Japan, where the elderly currently make up 25% of all residents. An aging population has partly contributed to the 'lost decade' of the Japanese economy, economists have said.
梁建章补充说，但是你看，中国生育率的前景似乎比很多其他国家更加悲观，在10到20年内，中国人口老龄化速度将比十年前的日本更快，目前日本的老年人占人口总数的25%。经济学家们曾表示，人口老龄化在一定程度上对日本经济低迷的十年起到了推波助澜的作用。

But others at the forum disputed the notion that China should be encouraging a new baby boom.
但也有人在论坛上对中国应鼓励一个新的“婴儿潮”的建议提出异议。

'Sounds like we are returning to Chairman Mao's line of thinking...I think we must not make that kind of mistake,' said Chen Zhiwu, a Yale University professor.
耶鲁大学教授陈志武表示：听起来我们正回到毛主席的思路上去...我认为我们不应该犯这样的错误。

Mr. Huang, however, said that even if the government completely scraps the one-child policy, the country's fertility rate still won't be 'normal,' and will instead continue to stay low.
然而黄文政说，即使政府完全废除独生子女政策，生育率仍然是“不正常”的，并将继续保持低位。

'It would be disastrous for China,' he said. 'No doubt about that.'
他说，毋庸置疑，这对中国来说是一场灾难。