为什么威尔士不会要求公投独立

AFTER months in which it looked all but certain that Scotland would vote “No” to independence, there is now real concern in London at the possibility of Scotland opting for a divorce this Thursday. Polls suggest a closer race than many had predicted, with the “Yes” campaign for Scottish independence even nudging ahead of the lacklustre “No” campaign in some surveys over the past two weeks. But if Scotland does leave the United Kingdom, what of Wales? Would a Scottish “Yes” vote prompt calls from the Welsh to hold their own referendum on independence, precipitating the exit of Wales from the Union too?

In fact, although Wales is in a similar position to Scotland, both in terms of history and its present constitutional arrangements, if the polls are to be believed there is almost no appetite for independence in Wales. A YouGov poll in April asked Welsh voters: “Should Wales be an independent country?”, and the answer was a resounding No. Only 12% answered positively, with 74% against (and 13% don’t knows). Curiously, the same poll showed that more Welsh supported independence for Scotland than for their own country. Furthermore, that 12% figure is probably on the high side, as several other surveys have shown support for Welsh independence at more like 5%. Not even all supporters of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, are in favour of independence. If Scotland votes "No" on September 18th it will certainly get more powers devolved from Westminster to Edinburgh anyway, and the same is bound to happen to Wales. But that is not expected to shift the basic Welsh objection to independence much.

There are several reasons for this lack of enthusiasm. Some worry about Wales's viability as an independent nation. Wales is smaller, with a population of just over 3m, compared with Scotland’s 5.3m, and nor does it have such an obvious source of income (and power) as Scotland does with its North Sea oil. The amount of oil and gas left in the North Sea for an independent Scotland to exploit is hotly disputed, but it nonetheless adds weight to the argument of the “Yes” campaign that Scotland can go it alone financially. Wales used to be a great coal-producing country, but most of that industry is long gone. These might be termed negative reasons to stay in the Union, born of a well-founded fear of how Wales might do on its own. But the Welsh also have more positive reasons to stay in the Union than do the Scots, principally because they seem to be more comfortable with their dual identity as Welsh and British. The Welsh enjoy a high degree of devolved government and combine this with a strong sense of cultural autonomy. Thus Wales is officially a bilingual country (all the road signs, for instance, are in Welsh and English), and it is estimated that about 20% of the population speak Welsh. Wales has distinct cultural and sporting festivals, and a distinct national sport—rugby football.

Yet despite this firm Welsh identity, Wales is closely linked to England both economically and politically—more so than Scotland. Telephone records reveal that whereas the Scots mainly talk to each other, the Welsh are mainly chatting to the English and others outside Wales. Furthermore, the Welsh are proud of the contribution that their own politicians have made to building modern Britain. David Lloyd George was British prime minister during the latter half of the first world war, and Aneurin Bevan, from Monmouthshire, founded the National Health Service in the Labour government immediately after the second world war. Conversely, the Welsh have been more accepting of English politicians occupying Welsh seats; Labour Party leader Michael Foot sat in Bevan’s old seat at Ebbw Vale for decades. It is only in more recent years, since the 1990s, that Scotland has consistently produced politicians that rose to the top of Westminster politics (such as Gordon Brown, prime minister in 2007-10). Whichever way the Scots vote, it looks as if the United Kingdom will at least hang on to Wales.