成功的商人不懂宏观经济

The answer, to quote the title of a paper I published many years ago, is that a country is not a company. National economic policy, even in small countries, needs to take into account kinds of feedback that rarely matter in business life. For example, even the biggest corporations sell only a small fraction of what they make to their own workers, whereas even very small countries mostly sell goods and services to themselves.
用我很多年前发表过的一篇论文的标题来说，答案就是：国家并不是公司。国民经济政策，即使是在一个小国，也需要考虑在商业生活中常常无关紧要的某些类型的反馈。例如，即使是最大的公司，也只会把一小部分的产品卖给自己的员工，然而即使是极小的国家，大多数商品和服务也主要是卖给国内的。

So think of what happens when a successful businessperson looks at a troubled economy and tries to apply the lessons of business experience. He or (rarely) she sees the troubled economy as something like a troubled company, which needs to cut costs and become competitive. To create jobs, the businessperson thinks, wages must come down, expenses must be reduced; in general, belts must be tightened. And surely gimmicks like deficit spending or printing more money can’t solve what must be a fundamental problem.
这样一来，就可以设想一下，成功的商人对欠佳的经济运用商业经验时，会发生什么。他们或者她们（后者人数极少）看待糟糕的经济，就像是一家处境不佳的企业，需要削减成本，提升竞争力。商人会认为，要想创造就业，工资就必须下降，开支就需要削减，总而言之，要勒紧裤腰带。政府背负赤字去花钱，以及印钱这样的伎俩，肯定没办法解决问题，而问题肯定是根本性的。

In reality, however, cutting wages and spending in a depressed economy just aggravates the real problem, which is inadequate demand. Deficit spending and aggressive money-printing, on the other hand, can help a lot.
然而实际上，在经济受到抑制时，削减工资和开支只会加剧真正的问题，真正的问题是需求不足。反过来讲，政府背负赤字去花钱，以及大手笔地印钱却有很大帮助。

But how can this kind of logic be sold to business leaders, especially when it comes from pointy-headed academic types? The fate of the world economy may hinge on the answer.
然而怎么才能让商界领袖接受这种逻辑呢，况且这种建议还是那些学术界的书呆子提出的？世界经济的命运，可能都有赖于这个问题的答案。

Here in Japan, the fight against deflation is all too likely to fail if conventional notions of prudence prevail. But can unconventionality triumph over the instincts of business leaders? Stay tuned.
在日本，如果审慎的常规观念占了上风，抗击通缩的战斗就很容易失败。然而反常规的思路，能够压制住商界领袖的本能吗？请拭目以待。