缩水的双十一 阿里巴巴销售数据虚高1/4

For e-commerce companies, the amount of business transacted on their sites — often labeled gross merchandise volume or GMV — is a telling sign of whether they’re growing market share.
电商网站的交易量通常被称为GMV或商品交易总量，它是电商的市场份额是否增长的一个标志。

But the measure is not quite so telling when unpaid transactions, returns or cancellations are included – as is the practice for leading firms such as Alibaba, JD.com and eBay.
但当诸如阿里巴巴、京东和eBay等行业领头羊将为支付订单、退货、和取消的订单也算在内时，这个标志就不那么准确了。

That means if customers buy a product and change their minds later, those transactions still may be counted in GMV.
这种做法意味着只要消费者拍下商品，即使后来改变了主意，这些交易仍算在商品交易总量内。

So how much would e-commerce players’ transaction volume be, if returns and cancellations were excluded?
如果去掉退货和取消订单，电商的交易量会是多少？

Singles’ Day, China’s version of the U.S.’s Black Friday or Cyber Monday, may offer a clue.
光棍节是中国版的黑色星期五或网络星期一，它也许能为这一问题提供线索。

On Singles’ Day last year, about 25% of merchandise purchased online was returned according to industry estimates, says Sandy Shen, an analyst at research firm Gartner Inc. That inflates GMV for China’s e-commerce players by the same amount, she said.
研究机构高德纳公司的分析师Sandy Shen指出，业界预估去年光棍节约有25%的在线购物遭到退货。她表示中国电商的商品交易总量虚高了同样份额。

Meanwhile, the rate of returns for online transactions in China year-round is about 20%, according to Barclays analyst Alicia Yap.
同时，巴克莱银行分析师Alica Yap认为中国网购一年的退货率约为20%。

Alibaba, which controls about 80% of China’s online shopping market, says that its returns for Singles’ Day are much lower — a single-digit percentage of total sales. The e-commerce giant doesn’t disclose the percentage of transactions cancelled or returned year round.
占据约80%中国网购市场的阿里巴巴则表示自己光棍节的退货率要低得多，不到10%。不过这家电商巨擘并未透露年度退货和取消订单的比例。

Neither do other e-commerce companies. And because each company defines GMV a little differently, it’s difficult to compare apples-to-apples across the industry.
其它电商公司也未公布这方面信息。由于各家公司对商品交易总量的定义有细微的差别，因此很难对业界各家公司做统一比较。

China’s e-commerce players are largely listed in the U.S. and accounting rules there don’t require a standard definition of GMV, said Paul Gillis, an accounting professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing.
北大光华管理学院的会计学教授Paul Gillis指出，中国电商公司大多在美国上市，当地的会计法规对商品交易总量的标准定义并无要求。

If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has reason to believe that e-commerce companies’ numbers are misleading, they may make them disclose more information, according to Gillis.
Gillis认为，如果美国证券交易管理委员会相信电商的数据有误导性，它将会要求电商公布更多数据。

Currently, Chinese e-commerce site Dangdang, known for its book sales, is one of the few to report transaction volume net of returns and cancellations.
以图书销售闻名的中国电商网站当当网公开除退货、取消订单外的销售额，它是目前为数不多这样做的商家之一。

Meanwhile, Amazon doesn’t disclose GMV at all.
与之相比，亚马逊则选择完全不公开商品交易总量。

Still, some analysts say the lack of a standard definition for GMV hasn’t been an issue for them.
不过部分分析师认为商品交易总量缺少标准定义对他们而言并不是问题。

“The difference in size between Alibaba and JD.com is very big, so even if they have different definitions of GMV, we can have a rough understanding of their transaction scale,” said Vanessa Zeng, a senior analyst at Forrester Research.
弗雷斯特研究公司的高级分析师Vanessa Zeng 说：“阿里巴巴和京东的规模差距非常巨大，即使他们对商品交易总量的定义不同，我们也能对它们的交易规模有大致的了解。”

Hans Tung, managing partner in GGV Capital, a fund manager that invested in Alibaba between 2003 and 2011, said knowing the company’s net transaction volume would be “nice to have,” because returns are a measure of the company’s health compared to other business-to-consumer shopping sites.
纪源资本的合伙人之一，基金管理人Hans Tung曾在2003至2011年间投资阿里巴巴。他认为，和其它B2C网站相比，退货量是衡量公司是否健康的一个指标，因此并不一定要了解阿里巴巴的净交易额。

Yet that might be harder for Alibaba to calculate, according to Tung, who’s also invested individually in Alibaba, because much of the merchandise on the platforms is shipped and sold by third-party sellers. That’s different from e-commerce companies like Amazon.com, which itself ships and sells much of the merchandise available on its site.
做为一名阿里巴巴的个人投资者，Hans Tung还指出，和亚马逊等主要依靠自主销售和发货的电商不同，阿里巴巴平台上的大量商品由第三方卖家销售和发货，阿里巴巴很难统计退货量。

GGV also co-invests with Alibaba on new venture opportunities in China and the U.S.
纪源资本和阿里巴巴共同在中美两国进行风险投资。