专家：坐飞机依然很安全

The disappearance of an Indonesia AirAsia jetliner with 162 people on board caps a torrid year for the aviation industry involving a spate of high-profile crashes. Accident data indicates, though, that flying remains safe by historical standards.

从印尼起飞、载有162人的亚航航班失联为航空业倍受煎熬的一年画上句号，这一年发生了一系列备受关注的空难事件。不过，从事故发生率来看，相对历史水平，飞机安全系数依旧很高。

AirAsia Flight QZ8501 lost contact with air traffic control Sunday on a flight to Singapore from Surabaya, Indonesia, as it was climbing to a higher altitude to avoid stormy weather, officials said. Contact with the Airbus Group NV A320 jet, which can seat 180 passengers, was lost at 7:24 a.m. local time—almost two hours after takeoff.

据印尼官员消息，12月28日，亚洲航空QZ8501航班在从印尼泗水前往新加坡的途中与空中交通管制失去联系，当时飞机遭遇暴雨天气，正在爬升。飞机机型为空中客车A320，能搭载180名乘客。当地时间早上7点24分，即起飞后两小时，飞机失去了联系。

The disappearance follows a series of ill-fated flights this year, of which two belonged to Malaysia Airlines. In March, one of its Boeing Co. 777s went missing with 239 people on board en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, and the wreckage still hasn’t been located. And in July, another 777 belonging to the Malaysian carrier was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 aboard in the year’s deadliest air accident.

这架飞机失踪之前，已经有多个航班遭遇同样噩运。其中两架来自马来西亚航空公司。3月，马航一架载有239人的波音777客机从吉隆坡飞往北京途中失联，至今仍未找到其残骸。7月，另一架马航波音777客机途径乌克兰东部时被击落，机上298名乘员全部遇难。这也是今年死亡人数最多的一起空难。

An Air Algérie flight also crashed in July while flying to Algeria from Burkina Faso. All 116 people on the plane died.

同月，阿尔及利亚航空一架从布基纳法索飞往阿尔及利亚的客机失事，机上116人无一生还。

MH370 dropped off the radar an hour into flight. At the end of 2014, the families of the victims still have no answers. WSJ's Jason Bellini reports.

马航MH370航班起飞一小时后在雷达上失去了信号。2014年已接近尾声，遇难者家属们仍然没有得到任何答复。

Despite these accidents and a series of others during the summer, the loss of life during 2014 before the disappearance of the AirAsia plane Sunday was still below the 10-year average of 676 fatalities, according to data from the Aviation Safety Network, an affiliate of the not-for-profit Flight Safety Foundation. Crashes this year had led to 526 fatalities before contact was lost with the AirAsia jetliner, the group said. The deaths from the shootdown over Ukraine aren’t counted because they are linked to a hostile act.

尽管今年夏天发生了一系列空难事故，但据非赢利性机构飞行安全基金会（Flight Safety Foundation）旗下的航空安全网（Aviation Safety Network）的数据显示，过去10年平均每年空难死亡人数为676人，在28日亚航客机失联之前，2014年的遇难者人数为526人，依然低于平均人数。统计中没有涉及乌克兰上空那架被击落的航班，理由是它失事的主要原因是敌对行为。

“It will probably come as a surprise to most people, but really it was a very safe year,” said Paul Hayes, director of safety at aviation consultancy Ascend.

航空咨询公司Ascend的安全主管保罗・海斯（Paul Hayes）说：“很多人可能会觉得不可思议，不过今年的飞机确实很安全。”

The number of fatalities from plane crashes this year is a long way off the 1,074 people who were killed in 2005. The figures were much higher in the 1970s and 1980s, when far fewer people flew.

今年因空难丧生的遇难者人数远低于2005年的1074人。而在20世纪七八十年代，乘坐飞机的人数很少，而死亡人数却远超现在。

The International Air Transport Association, which represents more than 200 carriers, said this month that accident rates this year through September were below the five-year average, with 2.1 crashes per 1 million flights.

12月，代表200多家航空公司国际航空运输协会曾表示，截至到9月，今年飞机的事故发生率为每100万次航班中有2.1架航班失事，低于过去5年的平均事故发生率。

Accident rates this year “still continue the trend of increasing safety,” Mr. Hayes said. “It is very difficult to get over not only how safe airline flying has become but how much safer it is than even just a decade ago.”

海斯说今年的事故发生率“安全系数仍保持上升趋势”。他说：“要想同时了解‘目前飞行安全系数有多高’和‘安全系数仅与十年前相比就上升了多少’，这并不容易。”

The aircraft insurance industry has been hit hard this year, exacerbated by a series of attacks on airports, potentially leading to a rise in premiums. Attacks on airports in Tripoli, Kabul and Karachi have ratcheted up worry about the risk to aircraft sitting in war-torn areas.

航空保险行业今年则遭受重创。多起机场袭击事件又使其雪上加霜。保险费也因此水涨船高。的黎波里、喀布尔、卡拉奇的机场都遭到了武装分子的袭击，这进一步加深了人们对战争多发地航空飞行安全的担心。

Despite the overall improvement in aviation safety, experts are under pressure to reduce the number of aviation accidents as more people fly. Safety experts in the U.S. and Europe are establishing vast databases of flights to determine how flying can be made safer.

虽然航空安全整体上进步明显，但随着越来越多的人选择飞行出行，专家们在减少航空事故方面倍感压力。美国和欧洲的安全专家正在着手建立覆盖面广阔的飞行数据库，希望以此获得安全系数更高的飞行方案。

Experts will be looking for lessons from any findings that emerge from the disappearance of the AirAsia jetliner. France’s air accident investigation office, the BEA, on Sunday said it would dispatch two investigators to Jakarta along with two technical experts from Airbus to aid Indonesia’s probe.

专家们将从这起亚航失联事件的调查结果中寻求一些教训。法国空中事故调查办公室BEA29日表示将派两名调查员与来自空中客车公司（Airbus）的两名技术专家一起前往雅加达，协助印尼政府展开调查。

The BEA could help analyze the plane’s so called “black boxes” if they are recovered. Those devices, which store cockpit conversations and system data, generally provide the best information of what went wrong on a flight.

如果飞机“黑匣子”能够被找到，BEA能帮助进行数据分析。黑匣子纪录有驾驶员舱尾对话和系统数据，可以很好地说明当时飞机遇到的状况。

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said it would also assist the investigation, if asked. Indonesia has lead responsibility for any probe under international aviation rules.

美国国家运输安全委员会表示如果印尼提出请求，它将协助调查。印尼在遵循国际航空规则的所有调查中担负主要责任。