雅虎科技2016十大预测

3. Virtual reality will finally be real — and most people will go ‘meh’
   虚拟现实或将成真，而消费者只能望洋兴叹

After nearly four years of teasing us, the Oculus Rift VR headset will finally reach consumers this year, probably some time in the early spring. HTC’s Vive and Sony’s Playstation VR (formerly Morpheus) will likely appear a few months after that. And no matter how awesome they are — and odds are they will be pretty awesome — very few people will buy them.
放了四年鸽子，Oculus Rift虚拟现实眼镜终于要问世了！发售时间为今年或是明年春初。HTC的Vive和索尼的Playstation VR（原名Morpheus）也将在之后的几个月问世。这都是些使人眼前为之一亮的产品，但不管这些设备多酷多棒，只有很少一部分人会选择购买。

Why? They’ll likely be expensive, require vast amounts of computing power, and be limited mostly to games and porn (ewww). The fact is, after four years of hype, VR headsets can’t possibly live up to expectations. And then there’s the whole after-15-minutes-you-feel-like-puking factor (10 minutes if you’re watching porn). VR will find a niche audience, at best, for a long time to come.
究其原因，这些设备主要用于游戏和色情音像（呃），拥有强大的计算能力，其价格可能会高得离谱。而另一方面，这些虚拟现实眼镜被热炒了四年，最终可能难以达到大众的期望值。这种眼镜戴上15分钟就让人忍不住想吐（如果看的是色情片只要10分钟），可想而知，在未来的很长一段时间内，这顶多只能是一种小众产品。

4. AR will beat up VR and steal its lunch money
   增强现实将与虚拟现实争夺市场

While the world oohs, ahhs, and hurls over VR (but doesn’t buy it), Augmented Reality (AR) will infiltrate all kinds of industries, from design and engineering to architecture, education, and medicine. Why? Being less immersive — you can actually see the world around you, as well as virtual objects — makes AR much more practical.
当世人还在惊叹于虚拟现实产品（但又不买）的时候，增强现实技术已开始渗透到各个领域，从建筑设计、建造，到教育行业，再到医疗行业。这是因为增强现实技术的仿真度要相对低些，人们可以获得真实的感官体验，还包括虚拟物品。这大大增强了技术的实用性。

Microsoft just released a new version of its HoloLens and will begin shipping $3,000 HoloLens development kits this spring. Google Glass will also emerge from the rock it’s been hiding under since its ill-fated debut, most likely aimed at industrial use.
微软刚刚推出一款全新的全息眼镜，并将于明天春推出价值三千美元的开发套件。而谷歌眼镜首次问世反响不佳，在雪藏了一段时间后也将重出江湖，很可能是面向工业用途。

5. Comcast will try to acquire Netflix — or possibly vice versa
   康卡斯特或将收购网飞公司，亦或是被网飞公司收购

Whether or not you’re a cord-cutter, streaming media is the future of entertainment — and nobody streams bigger than Netflix, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of all Internet traffic last year. Since big cable can’t beat the streamers at this game, the only thing left is for it to join them by acquisition; Comcast ($192 billion valuation) and Netflix ($42 billion) are the most logical candidates for an arranged marriage. While it stands to reason that the larger company will swallow the smaller one, it’s not inconceivable that the reverse will happen — not unlike AOL’s acquisition of Time Warner 15 years ago, but perhaps with better results.
不管你是否承认，流媒体都将是娱乐业的发展趋势。而在这方面没有谁比网飞公司做得更大了。去年网飞公司就占据了网络总流量的百分之四十。强强争斗没有结果，唯有收购这一条出路。现在康卡斯特（价值1920亿美元）和网飞公司（价值420亿美元）最有可能走到一起。虽然一般情况下是大公司吞并小公司，但也不排除相反的情况——15年前美国在线就曾收购时代华纳。但与之相比，康卡斯特和网飞的合并或许会有更好的结果。