中国游客撑起安倍经济学

For those who spend a lot of their timebetween the jewellery boutiques and the haute couture stores of Tokyo’s Ginzadistrict, a new joke suggests an easy way to tell local Japanese from theChinese tourists. 

一个新的笑话表明，有一个简便方法可以分辨出在那些流连于东京银座珠宝专卖店和高级时装店的人当中，哪些是日本本地人，哪些是中国游客。 

Both types will rendezvous with theirfriends and family under the imposing portico of Mitsukoshi —Ginza’s mostfamous department store and meeting spot. 

无论是日本本地人还是中国游客都会在三越(Mitsukoshi)——银座最著名的百货商店和碰头地点——雄伟的门廊下与家人和朋友会面。 

The Chinese, by recent tradition, will rushinside and buy a Bottega Veneta handbag for ￥300,000 ($2,900). 

按照近年的传统，中国人将会冲到里面，买下30万日元（合2900美元）的宝缇嘉(Bottega Veneta)手袋，而日本人将会冲到马路对面的Doutor平价咖啡店，买上一杯300日元的拿铁咖啡。 

The Japanese will rush across the road toDoutor, a thrifty coffee shop, and buy a latte for ￥300. 

It is gallows humour that reveals aJapanese luxury goods industry in outward health, but also in a state offundamental transformation. 

正是这种黑色幽默揭示出日本奢侈品行业表面仍然健康，但也在发生根本转变。

On paper, things could not be better. 

表面看起来，情况好得不得了。 

Between 2010 and 2015, according to datafrom Euromonitor International, the value (in 2015 dollar terms) of theJapanese luxury goods market jumped by almost 25 per cent from $20.9bn to$26.1bn. 

欧睿咨询(Euromonitor International)的数据显示，从2010年到2015年，日本奢侈品市场价值（按2015年美元价值计算）飙升近25%，从209亿美元增至261亿美元。 

The growth was not quite as steep as the 52per cent growth in China over the same period, but for a developed market, itwas striking. 

这种增幅不像中国市场同期52%的增长那么陡峭，但对一个发达市场是惊人的。 

Beneath those figures, however, Japanesetastes in luxury, from jewellery and watches to handbags and headscarves, havebeen shifting towards value for money and low ostentation. 

然而，在那些数据的背后，日本人不再青睐珠宝、名表、手袋和头巾等奢侈品，他们的兴趣正转向物有所值和低调。

Much of that is natural in an ageingpopulation whose tastes have matured, and much of it is the effect of ageneration of Japanese now in their 30s having grown up with 20 years of on-offdeflation. 

随着人口日益老龄化，随着三十多岁的日本消费者经历了20年断断续续的通缩，消费观念转向成熟理性也是自然的。

Chinese tourists, meanwhile, are not justarriving in Japan in record numbers, but on a scale that has smashed thegovernment’s most bullish predictions: up 38 per cent to 3.8m in the year toJuly, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation. 

与此同时，去日本旅游的中国游客人数不仅创出历史最高纪录，而且增速也超出了政府最乐观的预测：日本国家旅游局(Japan National Tourist Organisation)的数据显示，在截止今年7月的一年时间里，中国游客增长38%，至380万人。

Jin Weijun, a tourist from Dalian innorth-east China, conforms to the stereotype of the Ginza Chinese tourist: heand his girlfriend have spent the past hour at Mitsukoshi comparing four piecesof Van Cleef & Arpels jewellery, all of them costing more than ￥1m each. 

一名来自中国大连的游客金伟君（音译）和来银座旅游的其他中国人一样：他和女朋友在三越花了一个小时比对梵克雅宝(Van Cleef & Arpels)的四款珠宝，所有这些珠宝的单价都超过了100万日元。 

When all your friends know you are going toTokyo, you have to come back with something that shows you spent money there,says Mr Jin, a website designer. 

这名网站设计员表示：当你的朋友们都知道你要去东京的时候，你不得不带回一些东西表明你在那里花了钱。 

That surge of arrivals and spending hasbeen a consistent support for the last three and a half years of Prime MinisterShinzo Abe’s economic revival programme. 

中国游客人数和支出飙升在过去3年半为日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的经济复苏计划提供了持续支持。 

Policies which caused the yen to weakenfrom ￥80 against the dollar in late 2012 to ￥125 in mid-2015 made Tokyo aparticular magnet for luxury shoppers: at one point, and in defiance ofconventional thinking, analysts calculated that a top-of-the-range LouisVuitton bag was cheaper in Tokyo than in low-tax Hong Kong. 

2012年末，日元兑美元汇率为1美元兑80日元，由于政策的变化，到2015年年中变为1美元兑125日元，这让东京尤其吸引奢侈品买家：分析师估计，最高档的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)手袋有一个阶段在东京的售价比税率较低的香港还要便宜，这在传统上是不可思议的。 

Moves to relax the visa application processfor Chinese spurred things further, creating an uNPRecedented wave of customersfor jewellery boutiques that had grown used to handling a trickle of browserseach day. 

放松中国人赴日签证申请程序的举措，进一步刺激了中国人赴日旅游的热情，掀起了一波史无前例的珠宝店抢购潮——此前这些珠宝店已经习惯了每天应对少数几个光看不买的客人。 

The decision by Japan’s two mainairlines, JAL and ANA, to offer double baggage allowance on economy-classflights from Chinese cities to Tokyo provided yet more incentive to cram bagswith the highest-end goods that Japan could offer. 

日本航空(JAL)和全日空(ANA)两家主要航空公司决定允许从中国城市飞往东京的经济舱游客免费托运两件行李，这让游客更有动力将日本的最高端商品塞进行李箱。

Wei Lijia is one of a growing number ofChinese who staff the luxury goods sales floors of department stores likeMitsukoshi and Takashimaya to ensure that Chinese tourists receive, in Mandarinand with subtle nods to their national taste, the impeccable service for whichJapan is known. 

三越和高岛屋(Takashimaya)等百货商店的奢侈品卖场聘请越来越多的中国员工，这让中国游客能够享受日本出了名的完美服务，这些职员说中文，而且向中国游客微微点头，认同他们的品味，魏丽佳（音译）就是其中之一。 

Luxury goods mean something different toChinese and Japanese. 

她表示：奢侈品对中国人和日本人的涵义不同。 

They both understand quality and price, butfor Japanese there is always this feeling that the actual purchase can wait. 

他们都明白品质和价格，但日本人总是觉得可以等等再买。

For the Chinese, there is this idea that ifthey don’t buy it now, it will be gone while they are thinking about it, saysMs Wei. 

但中国人的想法是，如果现在不下手，在他们犹犹豫豫的时候好东西就被人家买去了。

In another symbol of Japan’s rapidadaptation to outsiders’ sense of glamour, the transport ministry has begun astudy on whether it should encourage taxi companies to operate stretch limousines— vehicles that represent the very opposite of Japan’s lower-key approach toluxury. 

日本国土交通省开始研究是否应该鼓励出租车公司运营加长型豪车——这种车与日本对奢侈品的低调态度正好相反——这是日本快速迎合外来者奢华感的又一象征。 

The rise in tourist numbers has been feltnationwide, but especially so in Ginza, where even on a drizzly Tuesday nightin September the pavements are thronged and Mandarin is the main language onthe shop floors. 

整个日本都能感受到旅游人数的增长，但银座的感受尤其深刻——在今年9月的一个周二晚上，即便下着小雨，但银座的人行道上挤满了人，卖场里到处是中国人的说话声。 

However, concern is rising over thesustainability of the boom. 

然而，人们日益怀疑这种繁荣能否持续。 

Discounting by US department stores,tumbling tourist flows in Europe, especially Paris, and high double-digit fallsin the once feverish markets of Hong Kong and Macau have cut growth expectationsfor the full year in 2016 to between 0 per cent and 2 per cent; in some cases,there may be contraction. 

美国百货商店打折、欧洲游客流量骤降（尤其是在巴黎），以及一度炙手可热的香港和澳门市场出现较高两位数的降幅，让2016年全年增长预期下降至0至2%之间，甚至在某些情况下还可能出现负增长。 

In September, luxury conglomerate Richemontreported sales down 13 per cent in constant currencies in the five months tothe end of August and stressed weakness in Hong Kong and Macau. 

今年9月，奢侈品巨头历峰(Richemont)报告称，在截止8月底的5个月里，销售按不变汇率计算下降13%，香港和澳门的销售尤其疲弱。

Bain & Co analysts, meanwhile, confirm Japanas the world’s top market for luxury growth, predicting between 5 per cent and 7per cent growth. 

与此同时，贝恩分析师证实日本是全球奢侈品增长最快的市场，预计增长在5%-7%之间。 

The biggest source of risk, say analysts,remains the yen. 

分析师们表示，最大的风险源头依然是日元。 

July spending by tourists in Japan’s departmentstores was 20 per cent lower than the same month a year earlier. 

今年7月日本百货公司的游客支出同比下降20%。

Over that 12 month period, notcoincidentally, the yen strengthened by almost 20 per cent. 

并非巧合的是，在这12个月期间日元升值了近20%