意大利本世纪末或被海水淹没

如果海平面上升一米……你能想象现在的沿海旅游城市会变成什么样子吗？研究发现，到本世纪末，意大利有可能完全被淹没。

The rise in the sea level will change the morphology of the Italian coasts over the next 80 years, a study found.
一项研究发现，海平面上升将在今后80年改变意大利海岸的形态。

And up to 5,500 square kilometres of coastal plains could end up under water – meaning Italy could be completely submerged by the end of the century.
而且，多达5500平方公里的海岸平原最终会淹入水下。这意味着到本世纪末，意大利有可能完全被淹没。

A study by the Laboratory of Climate Modelling and the journal Quaternary Science Reviews focused on four sensitive areas of the Italian peninsula which will feel the impact of rising sea levels. These were the North Adriatic, the Gulf of Taranto, the Gulf of Oristano and the Gulf of Cagliari.
气候模拟实验室和《第四纪科学评论》开展的这项研究聚焦意大利半岛的4个敏感区域——北亚得里亚海、塔兰托湾、奥里斯塔诺湾和卡利亚里湾，它们将感到海平面上升的影响。

The analysis took into account the most recent projections of sea-level rise between a minimum of 53cm and a maximum of 97cm, also including the effects due to geological and geomorphological changes.
分析结果考虑了海平面上升幅度最新预测结果，这一结果认为海平面上升幅度将在53厘米至97厘米之间，还考虑了地质和地貌改变的影响等。

Fabrizio Antonioli, the director of research at the Laboratory of Climate Modelling told National Geographic Italian: “The coast is flat and there are no dunes to act as a natural barrier. Some areas are already close to or below the sea level.”
气候模拟实验室研究负责人法布里齐奥•安东尼奥利对《国家地理》（意大利文版）说：“海岸平坦，没有沙丘充当天然屏障……有些区域已接近甚至低于海平面。”

Experts suggest that the way to solve the issue is that governments will need to improve the efficiency of the dams to protect the coasts.
专家表示，要解决这个问题，政府需提高堤坝保护海岸的有效性。

If no reinforcement measures are implemented in the near future, the cities of Aquileia, Ravenna and Rovigo will be at risk of flooding while the coastline could arrive less than 10km from Ferrara.
如果近期不采取加固措施，阿奎莱亚、拉韦纳和罗维戈等城市将面临洪灾危险，同时海岸线可能退到距费拉拉不到10公里的地方。

Climate change experts fear that by the year 2100, the maximum elevation calculated will be approximately 101 cm above the current sea level for the North Adriatic.
气候变化专家担心，到2100年，北亚得里亚海的海平面最高将超过当前海平面101厘米左右。

Furthermore, it will be 96cm for the Gulf of Cagliari, 95cm for Oristano and 92cm for the Gulf of Taranto.
而且，卡利亚里湾、奥里斯塔诺湾和塔兰托湾的海平面将分别上升96厘米、95厘米和92厘米。

The coastline near Venice could also go back 30 kilometres and the area between Trieste and Venice is one of the most vulnerable.
威尼斯附近的海岸线也会后退30公里，的里雅斯特和威尼斯之间的区域将成为最脆弱的区域之一。

It is estimated that in Europe there are about 86 million people living within 10 km from the coast.
据估计，欧洲有大约8600万人居住在距离海岸不到10公里的地区。

In Italy, as well as in the rest of the Mediterranean region, 70 percent of the population live in the coastal area.
在意大利和地中海其他区域，70%的人口居住在滨海地区。

Italian shores are also home to major business establishments and the epicentre of thriving tourist activities.
意大利海岸还有大量的大型商业场所，这里也是繁荣的旅游中心。

All these activities will be increasingly threatened by coastal erosion and the risk of flooding.
这些都将日益受到海岸侵蚀和洪灾风险的威胁。