中美贸易的十个真相

特朗普政府正在与全世界打贸易战。许多人认为，特朗普及其贸易政策团队是一批极端贸易保护主义者，他们身处21世纪，但思维仍停留在19世纪。在过时贸易理念的驱使下，他们过份强调贸易的不平衡，与全世界各主要贸易伙伴大打贸易战，搞乱了全球贸易秩序。

The Trump administration is engaged in a trade war with the whole world. Many people think that Trump and his trade policy team are a group of extreme trade protectionists whose bodies have entered the 21st century, but whose thoughts are still in the 19th century. Driven by outdated trade concepts, they over-emphasize trade imbalances and launch trade wars with major trading partners around the world, bringing chaos to the global trade order.

特朗普政府指责中国采取不公平贸易政策，指控中国占美国的便宜，迫使美国公司向本国企业转让技术，剽窃美国的知识产权，并怀疑在美留学的中国学生和学者收集技术情报。这些毫无根据的看法正在妖魔化中国，煽动美国公众对中国的负面情绪，从而加深了两国人民之间的敌意。

The Trump administration accuses China of unfair trade policies. China is accused of taking advantage of the US, forcing US companies to transfer technology to local companies, stealing US intellectual property rights, and Chinese students and scholars studying in the US are supposedly collectors of technical intelligence. These unfounded views are demonizing China, fanning the negative sentiment of China amongst the American public, and as a result, deepening the hostility between the two peoples.

我认为现在的当务之急是让两国人民，尤其是美国人民了解中美贸易的真相。

I believe that what is urgent now is to let the people of both countries, especially the United States, understand the truth about China-US trade.

首先，中美贸易是自由和公平的。虽然作为一个发展中国家，中国的关税高于美国，但它的关税低于许多发展中国家，包括印度。中国并没有强迫人们购买中国产品，美国进口商也并不愚蠢。中国的进口产品有助于多年来收入增长缓慢的美国中产阶级，使他们以同样收入买到更多商品。2017年中国出口的增长，恰恰是美国经济增长强劲和消费者信心增加的结果。

First of all, China-US trade is free and fair. Although China as a developing country has higher tariffs than the US, it has lower tariffs than many developing countries, including India. China is not forcing people to buy from it, and US importers are not stupid. China's imports have helped the US middle class, which have experienced slow income growth for years, to buy more goods with the same income. The increase in Chinese exports in 2017 is precisely the result of strong US growth and increased consumer confidence.

第二，2001年加入WTO后，中国市场基本上是开放的。中国是美国出口增长最快的市场，如果中国市场不开放，就不可能有56％的美国大豆、26％的波音飞机和16％的美国汽车出口到中国。

Second, China's market is basically open after its accession to the WTO in 2001. China is the fastest growing market for US exports. If the Chinese market is not open, it is impossible to see 56% of US soybean exports, 26% of Boeing aircraft, and 16% of US automobiles exported to China.

第三，美国的出口管制是增加对华出口的障碍。与其他一些发展中国家一样，中国的比较优势是劳动力成本较低，而美国的比较优势在于资本、技术和土地。在这种差异的推动下，中国向美国出口劳动密集型产品，美国则向中国出口技术产品和农产品。正如美国中国商会所抱怨的，美国的出口管制政策比欧洲（特别是德国）和日本更严格，它限制了美国的对华出口。美国的出口管制对贸易逆差也应该负有一定责任。

Third, US export controls are a barrier to more exports to China. Like some other developing countries, China's comparative advantage lies in cheaper labor. America's comparative advantage lies in capital, technology, and land. Driven by this difference, China exports labor-intensive products to America, and the US exports technology products and agricultural products to China. As the US Chamber of Commerce in China complains, the US export control policies are stricter than those of Europe (especially Germany) and Japan, limiting US exports to China. US export controls should take part of the responsibility for the trade deficit.

第四，美中贸易是全球供应链的组成部分。虽然全球化给各国带来了财富和增长，但它并没有改变富国和穷国之间的分工。实际上，美国处于供应链的高端，而中国处于供应链的低端。苹果手机就是最典型的例子。几乎所有苹果手机都在中国组装，但中国工人和工厂只获得5％的附加值（主要是劳动力成本），而苹果的设计、品牌和销售拿走附加值的近60％，苹果的美国投资者分享了这些利润。然而，作为苹果手机组装的最后一环，中国必须承担苹果公司出口到美国的全部价值。不同的经济学家认为，全球供应链把中国对美国的出口夸大了40%到60%。

Fourth, US-China trade takes place within the global supply chain. While globalization has brought wealth and growth to countries, it has not changed the division of labor between the rich and the poor nations. In reality, the US is at the high end of the supply chain, while China is at the low end of the supply chain. Apple's iPhone is the most typical example. Almost all iPhones are assembled in China, but Chinese workers and factories only receive 5% value added (mainly labor costs), and Apple's design, branding, and sales account for nearly 60% of the value added, and American investors from Apple share these profits. However, as the final assembly point of the iPhone, China has to bear the entire value of all Apple exports to the US. The global supply chain exaggerates China's exports to the United States by as much as 40-60%, according to different economists.

第五，特朗普和其他保护主义者只强调中美商品贸易逆差，而故意忽视美国在服务贸易中对中国的顺差。例如，据中国的统计，2017年美国对华服务贸易顺差高达541亿美元，如果采用美国标准，2017年美国对华服务贸易顺差总额超过900亿美元。美国从中国游客和学生，以及从对中国的出口版权和专利那里获得了大量好处。

Fifth, Trump and other protectionists only emphasize the Sino-US trade deficit in goods, but they deliberately ignore the US surplus with China in service trade. For example, according to Chinese statistics, the US service trade surplus with China in 2017 was as high as $54.1 billion; if the US standard applies, the total US service trade surplus with China in 2017 would exceed $90 billion. The US has gained a lot of benefits from Chinese tourists and students, and from exporting copyrights and patents to China.

第六，贸易保护主义者故意忽视的另一点是，在华投资的美国公司销售额已超过5000亿美元。它们不仅从快速增长的中国市场获取巨额利润，还导致美国零部件以及知识产权出口到中国，这反过来也促进了美国经济的增长。

Sixth, another thing trade protectionists deliberately ignore is that the sales of US companies investing in China have surpassed $500 billion. They not only make huge profits from the fast-growing Chinese market, they also lead to the export of US parts and components as well as intellectual property rights to China, which in turn promotes growth in the US economy.

第七，最新数据反驳了对中国所谓“盗窃知识产权”的指责。虽然知识产权制度起步较晚（始于上世纪90年代初），但中国已经建立了相对完整的知识产权法律保护制度，包括设立知识产权法院和专门的司法机构，对知识产权的保护明显已经生效。例如，2017年中国对外支付知识产权费用达到286亿美元，比2001年加入WTO的时候增加了15倍。而美国知识产权所有者是最大的受益人。

Seventh, the latest data refutes the accusations about China's so-called “theft of intellectual property rights”. Although the system of intellectual property rights started late (since the early 1990s), China has established a relatively complete intellectual property legal protection system, including the establishment of intellectual property courts and specialized judicial institutions, and the protection of IP rights has clearly taken effect. For example, in 2017, China's external payment of intellectual property fees reached $28.6 billion, a 15-fold increase over the time when it joined the WTO in 2001. US intellectual property owners are the biggest beneficiaries.

第八，至于所谓中国“强制技术转让”问题，并没有证据表明中国政府有法律或法规对外国投资企业实施这一要求，中国也没有对美国企业强制执行技术转让。美国汽车业在中国市场的巨大成功表明，中美合资企业的主要基础是自愿的契约行为。通用汽车和福特通过合资企业向中国出口了大量汽车和零部件，已经成为中国最大的汽车制造商之一。

Eighth, as for the so-called "forced technology transfer" problem in China, there is no evidence that the Chinese government has a law or regulation that imposes this requirement on foreign-invested enterprises, and there is no enforcement of the transfer of technology on US companies. The great success of the US auto industry in the Chinese market indicates that China-US joint ventures are mainly based on voluntary contractual behavior. General Motor and Ford have exported a large number of automobiles and parts to China through joint ventures, becoming one of the largest automobile manufacturers in China.

第九，“中国制造2025”产业政策是特朗普政府攻击中国的主要目标之一。显然，他担心中国会采取所谓“国家资本主义”政策，通过国家补贴提高中国企业在高科技产业的竞争力。这种指责是毫无根据的，原因是：首先，利用产业政策升级中国企业技术是中国的发展权，符合WTO规则。其次，中国的政策只是指导性的，不是强制性的。第三，中国的产业升级是必要的，因为随着劳动力成本的上升，中国的劳动力竞争优势大多已经丧失，中国经济增长面临着巨大困难。此外，美国自己在农业和制造业领域存在大量补贴，最近滥用301条款和232条款（以国家安全为名）就是美国版国家保护主义的一个例子。

Ninth, the industrial policy “Made in China 2025” is one of the main goals of the Trump administration's attack on China. Obviously, he is worried that China will adopt the so-called “state capitalism” policy and enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the high-tech industry through state subsidies. This accusation is unfounded, because of the following factors: the use of industrial policies to upgrade the technology of Chinese enterprises is China's development right and is in line with WTO regulations. Second, China's policies are only guidelines, they're not mandatory. Third, China's industrial upgrade is necessary because, with the rise of labor costs, China's labor competitive advantage is mostly lost, and China's economic growth is facing enormous difficulties. In addition, the United States itself has a large number of subsidies in agriculture and manufacturing. The recent abuse of Section 301 and Section 232 provisions (in name of national security) is an example of the US version of state protectionism.

第十，中国的贸易行为没有违反WTO规则。自16年前加入WTO以来，中国总的来说遵守了入世议定书中的所有义务，这是WTO对中国表现的评价。作为两个贸易大国，中国和美国都接受两年一次的贸易政策审议。在WTO争端解决机制裁定中国政策不符合WTO规则的案子里，中国都进行了纠正，相反美国却很少服从WTO的裁决。

Tenth, China's trade practices have not violated WTO rules. Since China joined the WTO 16 years ago, the country has, generally speaking, complied with all its obligations in its accession protocol. This is the WTO's evaluation of China's performance. As two major trading nations, China and the US have been subject to a biennial trade policy review. And in the cases where the WTO dispute settlement mechanism ruled that China's policy does not conform to WTO rules, China has corrected it; by contrast, the United States obeys WTO judgments far less often.

总之，中国不想打贸易战，希望与美国发展稳定、互利、公平的贸易关系。特朗普发起有史以来针对中国的最大贸易战，对价值500亿美元中国出口产品征收关税，现在还威胁对另外2000亿美元甚至5000亿美元中国产品征收关税。显然，特朗普的贸易战是典型的贸易欺凌，中国政府被迫坚决反击。与此同时，中国正在加快市场导向的改革，向外国投资者开放市场，以应对贸易战的挑战。中国已经有最大的国内销售市场，并且正在进一步开放其市场，如果特朗普政府坚持与中国打贸易战，那么美国有可能把机会错失给其他竞争对手。而且，贸易战的升级让人回想起上世纪30年代的历史悲剧，当时美国国会通过了高关税的贸易保护法，即1930年斯莫特-霍利关税法，结果导致全球范围的贸易战、货币战，直至爆发毁灭性的第二次世界大战。聪明的美国人民应该更加了解这段历史所产生的后果，反对贸易战政策。

In sum, China does not want to fight a trade war and hopes to develop stable, mutually beneficial, and fair trade relations with the United States. Trump launched the largest trade war in history against China, slapping tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, and now threatens to levy tariffs on an additional $200 billion or even $500 billion. Obviously, Trump's trade war is typical trade bullying, and the Chinese government is forced to resolutely fight back. At the same time, China is accelerating market-oriented reforms and opening up the market to foreign investors as a counterbalance to trade war challenges. Given the fact that China is already the largest domestic sales market and is further opening up its market, the US may lose opportunities to other competitors if the Trump administration insists on a trade war with China. Moreover, the escalation of trade war recalls the tragic history of the 1930s, when the US Congress passed the high tariff trade protection law, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. The result was a world-wide trade war, a currency war, and finally the totally destructive World War II. The wise American people should be more aware of the results of this period of history and oppose the policy of trade war.