专家：美国将在秋冬季遭遇流感和新冠“双重”暴发

美国流行病学家认为，美国当前处于应对新冠肺炎疫情的“新阶段”，疫情正在“极其广泛地蔓延”。专家警告说，美国冬季可能遭遇流感和新冠病毒“双重”暴发。 

Public health experts, researchers and manufacturers warn the coming flu season could bring a “double-barrel” respiratory disease outbreak in the United States, just as fall and winter are expected to exacerbate the spread of Covid-19.

新冠病毒的传播预计会在秋冬季加剧，公共卫生专家、研究人员和制造商警告说，美国即将到来的流感季可能会带来“双重”呼吸道疾病的暴发。

At the same time, researchers said the strategies currently used to prevent Covid-19 transmission – namely, hand-washing, mask-wearing and social distancing – could also help lessen flu outbreaks, if Americans are willing to practice them.

与此同时，研究人员表示，目前用于预防新冠病毒传播的策略，即洗手、戴口罩和保持社交距离，也可能有助于减轻流感暴发，如果美国人愿意这么做的话。

“We will be faced with basically a double-barrel respiratory virus season, both influenza and Covid,” said Dr William Schaffner, medical director for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and a professor of medicine at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee.

美国国家传染病基金会医学负责人、田纳西州范德比尔特大学医学院教授威廉·沙夫纳博士说：“大体上说，我们将面临一个流感和新冠肺炎双重呼吸道病毒的流行季。”

Flu season typically peaks between December and February in the northern hemisphere. It caused an estimated 61,000 deaths and 810,000 hospitalizations in 2019 in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

北半球的流感季通常在当年12月至次年2月达到高峰。根据美国疾病控制和预防中心的数据，2019年，流感在美国造成约6.1万人死亡、81万人住院。

By comparison, Covid-19 has killed more than 166,000 people in the US with months to go before the end of the year, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. The disease hospitalized an estimated 293,000 people just between March and May 2020, according to the healthcare consulting firm Avalere. Those deaths and infections also occurred despite huge efforts – such as shutting down large parts of the US economy – being put into action to slow the virus’s path.

相比之下，根据约翰斯·霍普金斯大学冠状病毒资源中心的数据，虽然目前距离年底还有数月，但新冠肺炎已经导致美国逾16.6万人死亡。据医疗咨询公司Avalere的数据，仅在今年3月至5月间，就有约29.3万人因新冠肺炎住院。尽管采取了巨大的努力，比如停止大部分经济活动，以减缓病毒传播的速度，但仍未能阻止患者死亡和感染。

While the flu’s seasonality is not clearly understood, the way it spreads is well documented. Flu is transmitted in much the same way Covid-19 spreads: coughs, sputters and sneezes in close proximity in closed spaces and in crowds. For those reasons, social distancing measures are effective against influenza as well as Covid-19.

虽然人们尚不清楚流感的季节性成因，但其传播方式却有据可查。流感与新冠肺炎的传播方式基本相同：病毒通过在封闭空间和人群中近距离咳嗽、飞沫溅射和打喷嚏传播。由于上述原因，保持社交距离的措施对防控流感和新冠肺炎都是有效的。

When community spread of Covid-19 began in the United States in March, widespread shutdowns shaved “four to six weeks” off the flu season in 2020, said Dr Richard Kennedy, co-director of the Mayo Clinic’s vaccine research lab.

美国梅奥诊所疫苗研究实验室的联合负责人理查德·肯尼迪博士说，新冠病毒今年3月开始在美国社区传播时，大范围的封锁措施令2020年的流感季缩短了“4到6周”。

That was “probably as a direct result of the social distancing and the mask-wearing and the shutdown,” said Kennedy. A similar phenomenon is taking place in the southern hemisphere, where winter flu season is now tapering off. Countries such as Chile have seen historically low influenza transmission.

肯尼迪说，这“可能是保持社交距离、佩戴口罩和封锁的直接结果”。南半球也出现了类似现象，目前那里的冬季流感季正接近尾声。智利等国的流感传播率创历史最低水平。

taper off：逐渐停止；逐渐减少

“Will we see that same thing up here? The answer is, if we wear our masks and social distancing, yes. If we remain shut down, yes,” said Kennedy. “But I don’t know if Americans are going to do any or all of the above.”

肯尼迪说：“美国会发生同样的情况吗？如果我们戴口罩并保持社交距离，如果我们继续采取封锁措施，答案是肯定的。但我不知道美国人是否会执行上述任何一项或全部措施。”

“We’re seeing groups wanting to open the economy up regardless of the risks. Then we’re seeing people saying, ‘No, we want to shut down and we don’t care if the economy crashes,’” said Kennedy.

肯尼迪说：“我们看到一些群体不顾风险，希望开放经济。然后我们看到人们说，‘不，我们要封锁，我们不在乎经济是否崩溃’。” 

But unlike for Covid-19, the world has another tool to fight seasonal influenza: flu vaccines.

但与新冠肺炎不同的是，世界上还有另一种抗击季节性流感的工具：流感疫苗。

Young and old alike have fallen behind on routine vaccinations due to the pandemic. GlaxoSmithKline reported one of its vaccines, called the zoster for adult shingles, experienced a 67% drop in sales in April and May of 2020.

由于新冠疫情，年轻人和老年人都没有及时接种常规疫苗。葛兰素史克报告称，其生产的一种“成人带状疱疹疫苗”在2020年4月和5月的销量下降了67%。

A severe flu outbreak would pressure already thin supplies of medical equipment, tests and manpower, all of which are needed to fight Covid-19. It could also sow confusion, as patients with fevers and coughs from flu rush to hospital emergency rooms in fear of Covid-19.

一场严重的流感暴发将给本已稀缺的医疗设备、检测和人力带来压力，而所有这些都是抗击新冠肺炎所需的。流感暴发还可能引发混乱，因为流感导致发烧和咳嗽的患者会因担心感染新冠肺炎而涌向医院急诊室。

【美国疫情最新数据】

据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的全球新冠肺炎数据实时统计系统，截至美国东部时间8月18日晚6时，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊5474630例，死亡171516例。过去24小时，美国新增确诊49085例，新增死亡1199例。