专家：我国下半年出口有望保持稳定增长

海关总署7月13日公布的数据显示，上半年我国货物贸易进出口总值同比增长9.4%，6月当月进出口增速进一步提升至14.3%。专家表示，展望下半年，在外需保持稳定、政策发力、供应链具备优势等因素支撑下，我国外贸有望保持稳定增长。

China's exports are expected to maintain stable growth during the second half of the year as trade activity continues to vitalize, providing stronger support to overall economic expansion, according to trade experts and economists on Wednesday.

贸易专家和经济学家7月13日表示，随着贸易活力持续增强，为整体经济扩张加大支持，中国下半年出口有望保持稳定增长。

Their comments came as the General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday that China's exports surged by 13.2 percent year-on-year to hit 11.14 trillion yuan ($1.66 trillion) in the first half of the year－picking up from an 11.4 percent increase in the first five months.

据海关总署7月13日公布的数据，今年上半年我国出口11.14万亿元，同比增长13.2%，相比今年前5个月11.4%的增速有所加快。

 

Imports rose 4.8 percent year-on-year to a value of 8.66 trillion yuan, also quickening from a 4.7 percent increase in the January-May period.

上半年我国进口8.66万亿元，同比增长4.8%，相比1-5月4.7%的增速也加快了。

 

That lifts the trade value for the first half of the year to 19.8 trillion yuan, up 9.4 percent year-on-year, or 1.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the first five months.

据海关统计，今年上半年我国货物贸易进出口总值19.8万亿元人民币，同比增长9.4%，相比前5个月的增速提高了1.1个百分点。

 

"The data have demonstrated a strong upward momentum in trade recovery," said Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生指出，这些数据展现出贸易复苏的强劲势头。

 

"It seems that export growth will likely achieve the forecast many analysts made at the start of the year, to register a yearly surge of around 10 percent this year despite multiple challenges," he added.

他还表示，尽管面临多重挑战，但今年的出口增长率有望达到许多分析师的预期。年初，多名分析师曾预测今年全年中国进出口外贸增长率有可能会在10%左右。

 

According to Customs data, imports and exports combined rose 14.3 percent year-on-year in June, registering a strong pickup from the 9.5 percent increase in May, and much stronger than the 0.1 percent growth in April.

海关数据显示，全国6月进出口同比增长14.3%，相比5月的9.5%和4月的0.1%大幅上升。

 

Moreover, China's trade with major trading partners maintained steady growth during the first half of the year.

此外，上半年中国和主要贸易伙伴的贸易额也保持稳定增长。

 

Its trade value with the United States increased by 11.7 percent year-on-year during that period, while that with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased by 10.6 percent and with the European Union by 7.5 percent.

上半年中国对美国、东盟和欧盟的进出口分别同比增长了11.7%、10.6%和7.5%。

 

Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, predicted that China's foreign trade is likely to exceed 40 trillion yuan this year, with pro-growth policy measures in place to further unleash the potential of the nation's complete and resilient manufacturing system.

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英预计，在有利于发挥中国供应链产业链韧性优势的政策措施支持下，今年中国外贸额有望突破40万亿元。

 

Chen Jia, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, said that China's trade expansion in the first half of the year, which beat expectations, will not only benefit the nation but also help curb high inflation around the world.

中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员陈佳表示，中国上半年的贸易扩张超出预期不仅对本国有利，也有助于抑制全球各地的通货膨胀。

 

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that a highly anticipated rollback of some US tariffs on Chinese goods would also facilitate China's export growth.

英大证券研究所所长郑后成指出，美国正在研究取消对部分中国商品加征关税，将对下半年出口增速形成一定支撑。

 

Wu Dazhi, president of the Guangzhou Leather & Footwear Association, said some Chinese enterprises in the labor-intensive industry have been stepping up research and development and establishing overseas factories, amid protectionist trade measures by the US and some European countries and increasing labor costs in China.

广州市皮革鞋业商会伍达志会长表示，由于美国和一些欧洲国家的贸易保护主义措施和国内劳动力成本的提高，中国一些劳动密集型企业一直在加大研发力度并在海外开办工厂。

 

Such moves will catalyze the transformation of Chinese enterprises to gain better positions on the global industrial and supply chains, he said.

他表示，这些举措将能推动中国企业的转型，从而在全球产业链和供应链中占据更有利的位置。