BBC Radio 4 2016-06-08

BBC Radio 4 2016-06-08

Good morning. In spite of all the debate, including last night’s, none of us know precisely what will happen after June 23rd. There are many predictions of course, pointing us to leave or to stay, but facts feel like they are in short supply. Martin Lewis, the guru of personal finances, suggested earlier this week that there can’t be any real facts because the situation we face is uNPRecedented. What we are in for - however we vote - is radical uncertainty.

Radical uncertainty is the fate of huge numbers of people in our world. Those in war and conflict, those fleeing disaster, those with undiagnosed symptoms, those whose families are breaking apart. Radical uncertainty does not always point to tragedy. It can be just as unsettling to be on the brink of good news, perhaps the cheque really is in the post this time, perhaps the drug trial will work, perhaps this damaged love can be healed. And if it turns out for the good we will never complain again. As if.

Radical uncertainty is horrible. It puts us into a state of anxiety, ready for fight or flight. At such times we crave reassurance, anything which can put solid ground back under our feet and enable us to calculate and plan. But we all know, really, that radical uncertainty is part of life. The unforeseen stroke of good luck, the unexpected catastrophe, both can hit us at any time and have nothing to do either with our planning or our deserving.

There is a whole genre of Biblical literature which deals with radical uncertainty. It is called apocalyptic and it looks like a set of weird predictions of wars and disasters, of hidden dates and times, of prophecies and secrets. But the revelations are not future facts – though people often think they are and get hung up on say, counting down the days to Armageddon - the point of these revelations is to assure the faithful that ultimately they are safe. ‘Behind the dim unknown, standeth God within the shadow, keeping watch above his own.’ as a 19th century hymn put it.

I read an essay recently about the book of Jonah the Hebrew prophet who ran away from God and ended up being swallowed and then shortly afterwards regurgitated by a whale. In it there was a quote from the Scottish philosopher John Macmurray. He said that there were two kinds of religion; illusory religion and real religion. Illusory religion says, ‘Fear not; trust in God and he will see that none of the things you fear will happen to you’. Real religion by contrast, says, ‘Fear not; the things that you are afraid of are quite likely to happen, but they are nothing to be afraid of’. In the absence of facts we are thrown back on our most basic beliefs and intuitions. Radical uncertainty is a test of our resilience. Perhaps we all need to shape up a bit.