CRI听力: Chinese Economists: the Worst Time has Passed

Anchor: One year after the start of the global financial crisis, world's biggest economies such as the European Union, US and Japan have shown positive signs of economic recovery.

Some Chinese economists say though the world economy has been through the worst of the crisis, more efforts are still needed to adjust macro-economic policies, or the world economy will falter again.

Zhangcheng has more details.

The European Commission on Monday issued a forecast report on world economy, saying EU is bouncing back from the recession, with a 0.2 percent growth in the third quarter compared with the second.
Meanwhile, according to Japan's economic statistics, its GDP has increased by 1 percent from April to June, marking the strongest increase since the financial crisis broke out.

Chen Fengying, a senior researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, says the world economy is at a turning point.

"I think the turning point has come. The US economy may stop decreasing in the third quarter this year. Other economies such as Japan, Germany, France, and Canada have already stopped shrinking and may bounce in the third quarter."(www.hXen.com)

Chen Fengying adds that as the US banking system as well as credit and real estate market have been stabilized, the root problems of the crisis are gradually solved, which will help the world economy recover at a fast pace.

Ba Shusong, a senior Chinese economist says the fast recovery of the world economy indicates that the world has learned a lesson from last century's Great Depression.

"Many measures we adopted today are learned from the Great Depression, such as the world's joint efforts to adopt proactive and easy monetary policy and cooperate in the global financial market, hugely upgrading its efficacy."　　
　
However, both economists point out that the global economy still faces some uncertainties. Chen Fengying says global trade and investment are still weak, which probably curb the economic performance in the future.

"One of the biggest problems right now is that the world trade and investment as a whole haven't stopped shrinking yet. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that global trade this year will decrease by 12 percent."

Ba Shusong notes that the current recovery is resulted from countries' stimulus packages. He suggests that all the countries should timely adjust their macro-economy policy to avoid inflation dragging the world economy into a second recession.

zhangcheng, CRI NEWs.