CRI听力: Trade Deficit Not Necessarily Bad Thing

Experts here in China are downplaying any potential concerns about the recent revelation that this country posted a trade deficit in March, the first time imports have outpaced exports in this country in some 6 years.

In fact, as we hear from Dominic Swire, some of those same experts are suggesting that the trade deficit could well benefit this country.

Chinese trade figures posted by the government certainly caught many by surprise. After six years of consistent trade surplus the country reported that exports in March, which amounted to around $112bn, were exceeded by imports, which stood at $119bn, resulting in a trade deficit of more than $7bn.

Patrick Chovanec, is an assistant professor of practice at the Tsinghua University. He says while the March trade figures came as a shock for many who have grown used to hearing about a consistent trade surplus, they can be explained by the natural business cycle, which often dips around spring time.

"It's not uNPRecedented for China to run a small trade deficit in one month in the spring in a year which ends up running a very large trade surplus. So part of this is seasonal export."

Likewise, Cao Heping, a professor of economics at Beijing University does not believe the figures are anything to worry about.

He says they could simply be due to a lack of demand from some of China's main trading partners as they continue to feel the effects of the global financial crisis.

In fact, he goes on to suggest the deficit may not actually be a bad thing.

"For the rest of the world it's good news because it can help China to contribute a little bit more towards the global recovery."

Patrick Chovanec agrees with this point of view, suggesting that many international observers will see the deficit as a sign of reform within the Chinese economy.

"Many people are looking at this and hoping to see a trend towards rising consumption in China, particularly rising consumption of imports and more balanced trade, not just because it would benefit the US or Europe but because it would represent a significant structural adjustment for China to a more sustainable growth path in the future."

It's too early to say whether the trade deficit reported in March is a result of external factors or evidence of a more profound change in the Chinese economy.

Discovering the true significance of the data will mean waiting to see what the rest of the year brings.

For CRI, I'm Dominic Swire.