CRI听力:Expert: CPI of the 2nd half of 2014 Can Be Better

The National Bureau of Statistics has released new economic data for June, which show a moderate, but relatively steady position in both the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes.

CRI's Li Dong has more.

Figures from the NBS show that China's producer price index or PPI for industrial products, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, fell 1.1 percent year on year in June.

The data marked the 28th consecutive month of drops, but the pace has narrowed, down from the 1.4-percent fall seen in May, 2 percent in April and 2.3 percent in March.

As for the consumer price index or CPI, a main gauge of inflation, it grew 2.3 percent year on year in June, down from 2.5 percent in May.

Food prices, which account for around one third of the weighting in the CPI calculation, grew at a tempered rate of 3.7 percent year on year last month, down from the 4.1-percent in May.

Food prices in June also declined 0.4 percent month on month.

Wang Yuanhong, a chief economist from the State Information Center, a government think tank, says this is a positive phenomenon.

"The price of pork is an important driver which stabilizes the consumer price index. As for non-food prices, like ordinary industrial commodities, the price is generally stable, as the supply is still more than the demand. So the CPI reflects moderate and small margin growth."

Yao Jingyuan, researcher of Counselor Office of the State Council says prospects for the CPI in the second half of the year can be more optimistic.

"If we make predictions on commodity prices for the second half of the year, we need to take a significant factor into consideration, which is the good harvest of the summer grain. This lays a solid foundation for the prices of agricultural products and food. The figures show the industrial products are stable with a slight drop, and with the good performance of the CPI, I believe we can easily achieve the goal of maintaining the CPI below 3.5%, which we set in the beginning of the year. I think we can even realize 2.5%."

Analysts said price levels in China are generally in a low territory in the first half of this year amid an economic slowdown which reduced demand. They say the country is currently not facing much pressure to control inflation, which should leave more room for the easing of monetary policies to boost growth.

For CRI, I am Li Dong.

A series of first half economic figures are set to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, including GDP, trade, investment, and industrial production stats.

Observers are expecting a rebound in economic growth through the 2nd quarter on the back of better exports and targeted government stimulus will have levelled-off the first quarter slowdown.

A survey of economists suggests GDP growth through the first half will come in at 7.4-percent year-on-year, which would be just slightly below the government's full-year target of 7.5-percent.

For more on what we can expect from the stats, we are joined on line with Cao Can, CRI's Financial Commentator.

Questions:

1. So what's your prediction of the growth rate? Can you give us a general analysis on the health of China's economy in the first half?

2. In break-down, can we expect any good news in export, givn that the global trade environment seems to be improving?

3. What will be the key risks China will face in the second half?

4. Will we see any major change in the monetary policy stance?

That is Cao Can, our Financial Commentator.