CRI听力:IMF: better short-term growth with credit risk in China

The new IMF report covers a broad overview of the Chinese economy, with the long-term outlook remaining much the same as before.

However, IMF Chief China Representative, Alfred Schipke, says a recent drive to increase spending in China is helping prop-up economic prospects in the near-term.

"In our view, the short-term outlook is somewhat better, in part because of the stimulus that has been provided to the economy."

Schipke says while this push toward more spending has helped stabilize Chinese growth, he says the trend comes with certain risks.

"What you can see is that the Chinese system continues to leverage up, more credit, more credit to the corporate sector. The corporate sector is therefore more leveraged. So there is the risk that there could be spillover to the financial sector."
 
One area the IMF is keeping close tabs on is the rapid rise in home prices in China, particularly in the major cities.

Alfred Schipke says the IMF believes it's important for the Chinese government to keep a close watch on the property sector in the short-term.

"The real estate part of the economy is an important part. It might be appropriate to use we call macro-prudential tools. So that could for instance imply changing the loan-to-value ratio for second mortgages."

The IMF's China chief also suggests that over the longer-term, the Chinese government will have to keep watch on the level of debt currently held here in China, particularly in the corporate sector.

"Now when it comes to the credit itself, it is important to call harden budget constraints. So that companies that should not be getting credit are ultimately rationed out."

This week's IMF report also suggests there remains a wide disparity of growth among the different regions in the country.

It also says growth in the services sector continues outpacing industrial expansion.