巴菲特:世界经济尚未恢复

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Where are we right now? We're on the cusp of the second half, when we’re supposed to see recovery.

Yeah, I think it’s unlikely for a while. I mean I get figures on dozens of, dozens of businesses. I get them daily. I mean we own them. And we have not, there is no uptick yet. There will be. I wanna assure everybody that. This country always comes back. I mean if you go, you know, we’ve had the Civil War, we've got the Great Depression, we’ve had Pearl Harbor, we get a lot of unpleasant surprises, but we always overcome them and we will this. But we haven’t yet, and it doesn’t look to me like it's imminent. It will happen.

You know, it’s rare to hear you as the Dr. Doom. I mean you know, look, the rate of jobless, job layoffs has slowed down. We got the report today on big ticket items. We have a second month of gains. (Yeah) We had existing home sales up for three, for a couple of months. So there are signs of growth. You are not encouraged by this.

Well, I’m encouraged by the fact that it’s gonna work over time. But I’m not, but in terms of looking at all the figures that I see, whether, you know, retail sale, everything. The unemployment is gonna keep going up significantly. But we will overcome it, I don’t wanna be Dr. Doom in that respect. I’m a huge bull on America, I always have been. But I also don’t believe in kidding myself. So when I look at numbers of how many yards of carpet we sold yesterday, or how many items of jewelry, or how many watches, or whatever it maybe. And I just was talking with the gentleman that runs this, this restaurant, you know, the same, the same situation. We have not bounced yet.

You mentioned one of the things, rate of unemployment going up. (Yeah.) There’s this talk of a jobless recovery, is there such a thing?

No, eventually, but there will be, at the beginning of recovery, there will be jobless. I mean when firms tighten up, they don’t start hiring a month or two months after their business turns up. They do start hiring later on. But unemployment will peak after businesses already start/ turning up somewhat. So it won’t be a jobless. We’ll add millions and millions of jobs in the next decade in this country. We just won’t add them in the next few months.

Vocabulary:

1.       on the cusp of: to be at the time when a situation or state is going to change

2.       uptick: An increase, especially a small or incremental one

3.       Pearl Harbor: 珍珠港事件

4.       big ticket: expensive

5.       bull: an investor with an optimistic market outlook

6.       tighten up: if a team or group tightens up, they start working together more effectively