花旗：大量投行职位将被机器取代

Citigroup’s investment bank has suggested that it will shed up to half of its 20,000 technology and operations staff in the next five years, as machines supplant humans at a faster pace.

花旗集团(Citigroup)的投行部门表示，随着机器以更快的速度取代人类，在未来5年内，其2万名技术与运营人员中，最多将有一半被裁员。

The forecast by Jamie Forese, president of Citi and chief executive of the bank’s institutional clients group, was the starkest among investment banking bosses in a series of FT interviews to mark the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis.

花旗总裁兼机构客户集团首席执行官杰米?福雷斯(Jamie Forese)，是英国《金融时报》为纪念金融危机十周年而做的系列采访中，最语出惊人的投行老总。

Mr Forese said the operational positions, which make up almost two-fifths of investment bank employees at Citi, were “most fertile for machine processing”.

福雷斯表示，占花旗投行员工总数近五分之二的运营岗位的工作“最适合由计算机来处理”。

“We’ve got 20,000 operational roles. Over the next five years could you make it 10,000?” he added, in comments that had echoes of former Deutsche Bank chief executive John Cryan’s claim that up to half of the German bank’s workforce could be replaced by technology.

“我们有2万个运营岗位。在未来5年内，这个数量会削减到1万吗？”他补充道。这一言论呼应了德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)前首席执行官约翰?克赖恩(John Cryan)的说法，即这家德国银行最多可能会有一半的员工被技术取代。

If replicated across the industry, the potential job losses would represent a steeper rate of cuts than in 2007-2017, when almost 60,000 jobs were cut from eight of the world’s top 10 investment banks, according to FT research. Two of the top 10 investment banks were not included in the FT research; Citi, because its data were not available; and Bank of America because its 2008 merger with Merrill Lynch make pre-crisis comparisons futile.

如果整个行业都仿效这种做法，潜在裁员力度将远甚于2007年至2017年，根据英国《金融时报》的研究，在那十年间，全球前十大投行中的八家总计裁员近6万人。有两家投行未被纳入这项研究，其中包括花旗，原因是缺少数据；另外还有美国银行(Bank of America)，该行由于2008年与美林证券(Merrill Lynch)合并，若与危机前进行比较的话毫无意义。

Barclays investment bank boss Tim Throsby said that the future would see a smaller number of employees making more money, while machines took over “lower-value tasks”.

巴克莱(Barclays)投行部负责人蒂姆?思罗斯比(Tim Throsby)称，未来投行将雇佣更少的员工赚更多的钱，机器将接手“价值较低的任务”。

“If your job involves a lot of keyboard hitting then you’re less likely to have a happy future,” he added.

“如果你的工作多半就是敲敲键盘，那你的职业前景恐怕不太乐观，”他补充道。

Richard Gnodde, head of Goldman Sachs International, said: “There are so many functions today that technology has already replaced and I don’t see why that journey should end any time soon.”

高盛国际(Goldman Sachs International)负责人罗以德(Richard Gnodde)称：“如今技术已取代了这么多职能，我不认为这一进程会很快终结。”

Not every investment bank boss saw plenty of room for more cuts. At HSBC, Samir Assaf, head of global banking and markets, said there was “not much more to go” for technology replacing investment bank staff.

并非每个投行老总都赞同还会大量裁员。汇丰(HSBC)全球银行业务及市场主管萨米尔?阿萨夫(Samir Assaf)称，技术取代不了多少投行职员。

“We get to a point from a risk-management perspective [where you can’t cut much more]. I think there is maybe another 5 to 10 per cent to go between now and the next five years.”

“从风险管理的角度看（你不能裁员太多）。我认为，从现在起5年内，可能还有5%至10%的裁员空间。”

Mr Gnodde stressed that technology could create new business opportunities and ultimately new jobs, such as Goldman’s fledgling online only consumer bank Marcus.

罗以德强调，科技可以创造新的商业机会，并最终创造新的职位，比如高盛刚刚起步的网上消费银行Marcus。

Mr Forese said his bank would hire in other areas such as sales and research. “What people are doing, the type of work being done by the human rather than the machine will change,” he added.

福雷斯称，花旗还会招聘销售、研究等岗位的人员。“人们正在做的工作，即那种由人类而不是由机器做的工作，将发生变化，”他补充道。