CNN news 2011-06-22 加文本

cnn news 2011-06-22

We're heading north into the remote hills for a glimpse of Afghanistan's future. The war here in Badakshan is not against the Taliban, but against a business so profitable, growing so fast, many worry it's Afghanistan's only option when the West pulls its troops and money out ，opium.

With an Afghan task force racing through the valleys to disrupt this year's harvest, for a while, NATO let opium growers be, focusing on the surge against the Taliban. But here it's expanding faster than anywhere in the country and risks getting out of control.

Stopping this harvest is particularly important because the price of opium has risen dramatically, threatening to flood a record amount of cash into Afghanistan and also into the insurgency.

In one year, the price has tripled. That's because uncertainty about Afghanistan's future means traders are hoarding the drug. This could generate record profits, the United Nations drug control chief here revealed to cnn.

We can definitely see a record profit of this harvest, meaning that those who benefit the most, the traders, which are not necessarily always the insurgents, will have a big incentive to continue the conflict to make sure that the opium business, as well, can continue to provide the huge profits we witness today.

Eradication is the simplest way of breaking the chain that puts heroin on city streets. But here, it wipes out the livelihoods of people who have nothing, creating enemies where before life was simple.

The villagers who huddle on a roof, mourning their lost crop. It's not safe to approach, the police say, who have come prepared in case the overlords behind this $1.5 business take issue. Mohammad, who lost his leg in a blast in Kabul and his $1,000 dollar opium crop to these police, still has six children to feed.

We grow poppy because of poverty. Without it, we go hungry. We didn't grow it for four years here, but the government gave us no help, so we started again.

Mohammad won't discuss who he would have sold his crop to, but those cartels are the big worry here. The war funds about two-thirds of the economy. And when NATO's money dries up, it will have to be replaced with something.

Opium is the easy answer. And along with it comes warlords and fears of a narco-state. Here, far away from the war, growing opium is a simple economical argument， the easiest and often the only money to be made.