CNN news 2012-02-06 加文本

cnn news 2012-02-06

AZUZ: We`re turning to U.S. politics now. With Florida`s primary in the rear view mirror, the leading Republican presidential candidates are setting their sights westward. That`s where several of this month`s contests take place.

AZUZ (voice-over): This Saturday we have the Nevada caucuses. The main caucuses start on Saturday as well. Those last a week. On February 7th, Colorado and Minnesota hold caucuses, and Missouri holds its primary election. And the month wraps up with primaries in Arizona and Michigan.

We`ve talked a lot this week about delegates. Right now, we`re pretty early in the game. None of the Republican candidates has more than 10 percent of the number of delegates they need to win the party`s nomination.

AZUZ: After Florida`s primary, cnn`s John King and Wolf Blitzer talked about how the numbers could shake to going forward.

JOHN KING, HOST, JOHN KING U.S.A.: So we`re done with January. Now we`re on to February. Right now, February`s the month that looks like it`s built for Mitt Romney. I`m going to do this the hypothetical at home.

If you`re a Ron Paul supporter, Newt Gingrich supporter, Rick Santorum supporter, you might not like this. But let`s say hypothetically Mitt Romney runs the calendar in February. The Nevada caucuses, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado.

Missouri`s a little complicated in how they award it, but I`m going to give it to him here. There`s another process later on. But Maine is a state where you had better watch Ron Paul here. But for the sake of argument, I`m going to give it to Mitt Romney again. Ron Paul could win the state of Maine.

So we get through February 11th there, and then you have the two big contests in February at the end, Arizona and Michigan. Again, this is a hypothetical.

I`m just saying if Mitt Romney runs the month of February, he would get to 256, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul would stay right there, 1,144 is what you need. So that`s a big lead, but, Wolf, it is a very, very long way to the finish line, which is why Newt Gingrich says I`m going to stay in the race, because then we move on to March.

March 3rd, the Washington caucuses, again, I`m going to give that one to Ron Paul. He may win one of these caucus states. That`s for the hypothetical, give that one to Ron Paul. He could win more than one, but let`s give him one there.

Then you move on here, Super Tuesday. This is why Gingrich is in the race right here. But you see Virginia flashing, an important point. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot, a Southern state. This could come back to haunt him as this goes on. He also hasn`t filed some delegate slates in Tennessee, so he could win the state and not get all the delegates.

But this is a hypothetical, giving some states to Romney. You see them dark red. The southern states, Oklahoma to Newt Gingrich, that gets Gingrich, Romney`s still pulling ahead, but coming now -- let`s go through the month. Let`s just split right there, Kansas, the Virgin Islands in there. Then we come again. This is why Gingrich says he`ll stay in the race. You get Alabama and Mississippi.

If you give those over to Gingrich, then we`re moving on again. The Missouri caucuses, I told you that, it`s a two-step process. I give it back to Romney there again. For the sake of argument, we`ll give Puerto Rico. And then you come here.

Illinois would be Romney. You get later, Louisiana, another southern state. We`ll give that to Gingrich for the sake of argument. And here`s where Gingrich wants to stay in the race. Wisconsin, Maryland, the big prize of Texas.

Remember when Rick Perry jumped out, he endorsed Speaker Gingrich. So again, for the sake or argument, we`ll give up here to Mitt Romney, down here to Newt Gingrich, look what happens with Texas, Wolf. We could get to the point where we`re at April 3rd and Romney is ahead. And I`ll take this off now, because he`s closer to the finish line. He`s closer.

But Gingrich is in the ball park then. That`s what he`s hoping, to take this race on to then, and make it a case.