CNN News:叙利亚停火协议开始生效 值得期待却不容乐观

We're starting today with a glimmer of hope in a civil war. The Middle Eastern nation of Syria has been torn apart since 2011. The United Nations estimates that 400,000 Syrians have been killed.
But earlier this week, a ceasefire organized by Russia and the U.S. officially begun. It calls for a stop to the fighting between Syrian government forces and the rebels fighting them. It does not apply to the terrorists fighting in Syria.
And while the ceasefire didn't stop all of the violence immediately, a relative calm had settled over the country on Tuesday. Officials hoped this will allow aid groups to get food and supplies to hundreds of thousands of Syrians who desperately need it. But some organizations were waiting on guarantees of security before setting out. Previous ceasefires in Syria did not last long.
首先来看一场内战呈现出来的希望。中东国家叙利亚自2011年陷入分裂。联合国估计内战已造成叙利亚40万人死亡。
但是本周初，俄罗斯和美国达成的停火协议正式实施。该停火协议要求叙利亚政府军和反对派停止斗争。但这份协议并不适用于打击叙利亚境内恐怖分子的行动。
虽然停火协议没有立即停止所有暴力事件，但是这份协议在周二给叙利亚带来了相对的平静。官员希望这份协议允许援助组织将食物和补给品送至数万名急需这些救济品的叙利亚人手中。但是一些组织要等安全得到保障后才会出发。此前的叙利亚停火协议并没能持续太长时间。

SUBTITLE: The struggle for a ceasefire in Syria.
NIMA ELBAGIR, cnn SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What do you need for a successful ceasefire?
Well, sadly, there is no wave of the magic wand, but in essence, you need three factors to be present. You need trust, which is in extraordinarily scarce supply in Syria right now. You need a clear delineation of areas of control by the armed groups and armed actors. And you also need leverage to enforce the ceasefire.
In terms of the delineation, well, the situation on the ground in Syria is extraordinarily confused and you have a number of very strange bedfellows sharing frontlines. But that complicates things when you have international actors like the U.S. and Russia seeking to work together to target those actors on the ground that they have identified as hostile, mainly Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and ISIS.
But what happens when you have more mainstream oppositions in those very same territorial footprints? Well, then you need the mainstream opposition to agree to give up some of that territorial hold and withdraw. Now, that is not something any armed group anywhere in the world is particularly comfortable with, in order to enforce that. That's where the leverage comes in.
But given how many years the conflict in Syria has been, allowed to roll on with so little sense of any kind of peace coming over the horizon, leverage isn't something that really anyone in the international community has selfless add
副标题：争取停火协议的叙利亚。
cnn高级国际记者尼玛·埃尔巴吉尔：成功的停火协议需要什么条件？
不幸的是，我们并没有魔杖，但是本质上，成功的停火协议需要三个因素。首先是信任，而这正是目前叙利亚极为缺乏的。其次是明确划定武装组织和武装分子控制的地区。最后是执行停火协议的影响力。
就划定区域来说，目前叙利亚的情况极为复杂，多支力量共同控制前线地区。在美国和俄罗斯等国际力量介入后情况变得更为复杂，美俄希望通过合作打击叙利亚境内被认定为敌对分子的力量，这些力量主要指的是“征服沙姆阵线”和ISIS。
在同样的地区还有多个主流反对派会发生什么情况？这时就需要主流反对派同意放弃部分他们控制的领土并撤离。任何武装组织都不会为了执行协议而乐意这样做。这时就需要发挥影响力。
但是考虑到叙利亚持续多年的冲突，要用几乎无法预见的和平推进协议，似乎没有国际力量会无私地施加这种影响力。