美商务部发布最新的经济增长数据

Just looking at the basic numbers, the U.S. economy remains strong.

仅从基本数字来看，美国经济依然强劲。

Although, the pandemic keeps slowing it down.

不过，疫情传播的速度在不断减缓。

We're going to get a check on its progress today when the Commerce Department reports on economic growth for the fourth quarter and all of last year.

今天，我们将在商务部报告第四季度和去年全年的经济增长时查看其进展情况。

We'll also get a sense of the economic momentum heading into the New Year, as the Federal Reserve tries to regain control over all these rapidly rising prices that we're seeing.

美联储试图重新控制我们所看到的所有这些快速上涨的价格，我们也将感受到进入新年的经济势头。

Of course, the experts try to prognosticate what the numbers will show. So what are the forecasts?

当然，专家们试图预测这些数字会显示出什么。那么预测是什么呢？

Well, the top-line number is expected to show solid growth for the fourth quarter.

嗯，预计第四季度的营收数字将出现稳健增长。

But, you know, Steve, that growth was not consistent.

但是，你知道，史蒂夫，这种增长并不稳定。

If you think back, for example, employers hired three times as many people in October as they did in December.

例如，如果你回想一下，雇主在10月份雇佣的人数是12月份的三倍。

Chief Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics says that's just one illustration of how the economy has been moving in fits and starts.

穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，这只是经济发展断断续续的一个例证。

Q4 started with a bang and ended with a whimper.

第四季度以一声巨响开始，以一声呜咽结束。

October was a fantastic month for the economy.

对于经济来说，10月份是一个奇妙的月份。

Consumer spending, investment, everything was kind of firing on all cylinders.

消费者支出，投资，一切都在开足马力。

And then by December, of course, omicron came on the scene quickly and did a lot of damage.

然后到了12月，当然，奥密克戎很快就出现了，造成了很多破坏。

And that damage has continued into the early weeks of the new year.

而且这种破坏一直持续到新年的头几周。

Zandi, like some other forecasters, thinks we could see a net loss of jobs for January.

赞迪和其他一些预测者一样，认为我们可能会看到1月份的就业岗位净减少。

Although, the coming months could be better as the omicron wave recedes.

不过，随着奥密克戎的退去，未来几个月情况可能会好一些。

How does 2022 look now that we're in it?

既然我们现在身处其中，2022年看起来会是什么样子？

Forecasters expect this to be another year of above average economic growth, although, not as strong as we saw in 2021.

预测人士预计，今年将是又一个高于平均水平的经济增长年，不过不会像我们在2021年看到的那样强劲。

You know, last year, the economy actually grew at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan was president.

你知道，去年的经济增速实际上是自罗纳德·里根担任总统以来最快的。

Admittedly, it might not have felt like it because the recovery was so uneven.

不可否认的是，由于经济复苏的不平衡，人们可能不会有这种感觉。

Zandi highlights the economy is still tethered to the pandemic.

赞迪强调，经济仍然受到疫情的影响。

When we're suffering a wave of the virus, the economy struggles.

当我们遭受一波病毒袭击时，经济就会陷入困境。

People get sick, can't go to work, supply chain gets disrupted.

人们生病，不能上班，供应链中断。

And then when the wave passes through and we get back to work, the economy revs right back up.

然后，当这波病毒过去，我们重新开始工作时，经济就会立即回升。

You know, it's just quite amazing that despite the pandemic, we were able to enjoy such very strong growth last year.

你知道，令人惊讶的是，尽管有疫情，我们去年仍然能够有到如此强劲的增长。

It does seem as if each new wave of the pandemic does somewhat less damage to the economy than the one that came before.

看起来，似乎每次新一波疫情对经济的破坏都比前一波要小一些。

But of course, we still face additional challenges, not the least of which is high inflation.

但我们自然仍会面临额外的挑战，最重要的是高通胀。

Which the Federal Reserve is charged with containing.

而美联储则负责控制这种情况。

And they do plan to start raising interest rates soon, they say. What are they thinking?

他们表示他们确实计划很快开始升息。他们在想什么？

Yeah. The Fed telegraphed yesterday that it's likely to start raising interest rates at its next meeting in March.

嗯。美联储昨天发电报表示，可能会在3月份的下一次会议上开始加息。

Prices have been climbing fast, as anyone knows who's been to the grocery store or the gas station lately.

物价一直在快速攀升，最近去过杂货店或加油站的人都知道这一点。

And while the Fed initially thought inflation would settle down on its own as the kinks in the supply chain get worked out, that's taking a lot longer than officials had expected.

虽然美联储最初认为，随着供应链中的问题得到解决，通胀会自行稳定下来，但这需要的时间比官员们预期的要长得多。

At the same time, the unemployment rate has dropped pretty sharply.

与此同时，失业率也急剧下降。

So Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says the economy doesn't need the kind of life support that the central bank's been offering throughout the pandemic.

因此，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济不需要央行在整个疫情期间一直提供的那种生命保障。

He and his colleagues expect to start raising interest rates pretty rapidly.

他和他的同事们预计将开始以相当快的速度加息。

We have our eyes on the risks, particularly around the world.

我们关注着风险，特别是世界各地的风险。

We do expect some softening in the economy from omicron.

我们确实预计奥密克戎会让经济出现一些疲软。

But we think that that should be temporary.

但我们认为这应该是暂时的。

And we think that the underlying strength of the economy should show through fairly quickly after that.

我们认为，在那之后，潜在的经济实力应该会相当快地显现出来。

Powell acknowledged, though, this is just a very unusual, uNPRedictable economy.

不过，鲍威尔承认，这是一个十分不寻常、不可预测的经济体。

And so he and his colleagues are going to have to be nimble and ready to shift gears as the roller coaster recovery unfolds.

因此，他和他的同事们必须机敏，并准备好在过山车式复苏展开时换挡。