CRI English Unit 42:Stock Market I 股票市场（上）

Part 1 Stock Market Investment 股市投资 

    Stock market investment gives you the unique opportunity to take a direct part in the growth and success of companies. When you buy shares in a company, it means that you actually own a portion of that company. As part owner, you benefit by receiving part of the profits or dividends and sharing in the growth of the value of the company.

    The company benefits by raising funds or capital when your shares and other shares are first sold. These funds are used to operate and expand the business.

    In general, share investments produce better returns than fixed interest investments, particularly when money is invested long temp3.

    Although there are rises and falls in the stock market, history shows that over the long temp3, the value of the stock market rises. In the US, which has a long history of deregulated stock market, the average real return per annum after inflation is approximately 10%.

    Direct investment in the stock market also gives you control over where you put your money. You decide which companies you want to invest in and when the time is right for you to see your shares. If you want to be in control, stock market investment is a good option.

    Another attractive feature of stock market investment is the flexibility to change your investments when your personal circumstances change. For example, if you need money for a well-earned break, an extension on our house or your children's education, all you need to do is sell your shares.

    Stock market investment allows you to follow your investment. You'll receive regular infomp3ation from companies you invest in and can attend meetings. This enables you to gain a unique insight into the results and strategies of the organization and learn a lot in the process.

    Market investment also allows you to follow a particular interest you have. For example, you may have lived all you life in a forestry area and are interested in supporting this industry and benefiting from its success, by investing in listed forestry stocks.

    股市投资给你一个独一无二的直接参与公司发展的机会。当你购买了某个公司的股票，也就意味着你实际上拥有了公司的一部分。作为公司的部分拥有者，你有权分享公司发展所带来的利润或者红利和公司发展所带来的增值。

    公司通过发行股票募集资金或资本获利。当你或他人购买了公司新发行的股票，公司也就募得了资金，用于公司的运营和业务拓展。

    总体来说，股票投资比固定利率投资的回报率要高，尤其是在长期投资方面更是如此。

    虽然股市有涨有跌，但历史证明，从长期来看，股市呈上升趋势。美国股市历来不受什么管制，其年均回报率，扣除通货膨胀率以后为10%左右。

    直接投资于股市让你可以把握投资去向。你可以自己决定投资于哪家公司，何时卖出股票。如果你想对投资有所把握，股市是一个不错的选择。

    股市投资另一个吸引人的地方就是它的灵活性。你可以根据自身情况的变化而改变投资。比如说当你想去度假，扩建房子或者为孩子的教育而需要用钱的时候，你要做的就是卖出股票。

    股市投资让你可以跟踪投资去向。你可以从所投资的公司定期得到信息，还可以出席公司的会议。这将使你更加深入地了解到公司的发展战略和进程，从中你也会学到很多东西。

    你还可以按照各人爱好进行投资。比如，你一辈子都住在林区，你也想支持林业的发展，就可以投资上市的林业公司，你还可以从公司的发展中获益。

Part 2 How To Pick A Stock? 如何选择股票? 

    When technical analysis is mentioned, people often think of analysts plotting price movements of stocks,drawing lines to find trends, support or resistance. Technical analysis is the art of deducing probable future trend from historical records of stock trading. It is the study of the stock market itself rather than the external factors that influence the market. The most familiar indicators used are the price and volume of a stock.

    Advocates of technical analysis believe that infomp3ation is not immediately reflected in the market prices of stocks. For example, when a piece of good news about a company is available, it is not immediately known to everyone but is slowly passed from one person to another.

    This process takes time and an upward price trend develops for that company as more and more people hear the good news and want to buy the stock and fewer and fewer people are willing to sell the stock. The stock price which has started to move in an uptrend will continue to do so until something happens to change the supply-demand balance.

    For the technical analyst, he does not need to know what the good news or any other infomp3ation that is affecting the stock price is; the chart will tell him whether the stock price is going to move up or down. He does not need to know the fundamentals of the company because if the price is going up, the fundamentals must be improving.

    On the other hand, fundamental analysis examines all relevant factors affecting the stock price in order to detemp3ine an intrinsic value for that stock. If the market price is below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued and should be bought. The factors to consider include balance sheet items, corporate management, business prospects and earnings outlook.

    The fundamental analyst calculates financial ratios based on data available from the balance sheet and income statement of a company. From these ratios, he deduces the financial strength and earnings trend of the company. Then he will meet the company's management to affimp3 his deductions, to understand the business and to learn of any new development of the company and the industry.

    A widely used tool in fundamental analysis is the price-earnings ratio or PE ratio. It is calculated using the stock price divided by the earnings per share (EPS) of a company. As a general rule, a stock with a low PE ratio is considered cheap although there are difficulties in applying this principle. PE ratios of two companies can only be compared if the companies are similar.

    It is believed that companies in different industries deserve different PE ratios. For example, Singapore Telecom is believed to deserve a higher PE ratio than many other stocks because of its position in the telecommunication business.

    However, analysts have not yet agreed on what PE ratio each industry or company deserves and there is no one way to detemp3ine the right PE ratio. Both approaches attempt to predict the future price movement of a stock. Fundamentalists study the cause of market movement while technicians believe that the effect is all that they need to know.

    Despite their differences, both approaches try to increase your probability of picking up the right stock at a right price. However, these methods only increase your chances but do not guarantee complete success. Some believe that fundamental analysis is good for picking the right stock while technical analysis is appropriate to decide the right price or time to buy.

    For the professional investor, he has to take another step of deciding the sequence of analysis. This will have an impact on how the investor divides his money among different countries and stocks. Basically, the investor decides whether the market as a whole or the company itself is more important in detemp3ining stock prices. Both factors definitely influence stock prices but the degree of influence is the issue.

    The top-down approach or sometimes known as the Economy-Industry-Company (EIC) model emphasises the market over the company. It starts with the analysis of different economies to detemp3ine which country could offer the investor better returns. 

    In the selected economy, it searches for industries that provide better prospects and it picks the best companies within these industries. The top-down approach offers a systematic and structured way to analyse stocks. It advocates that the economy and industry effects are significant factors in detemp3ining the total return for stocks.

    The bottom-up or stock picking approach believes in finding stocks that are undervalued which can provide superior returns irrespective of the market and industry factors. The company effect is the dominant factor in detemp3ining stock return.

    There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest which approach offers superior returns to the investors. The most important thing is that an investor is comfortable with a particular method, understands its strengths and limitations, experiments with it, finds that it works for him and abides by the method.

    一提起技术分析，人们就会想到股票分析员画股价走势图，找支持线和阻力线。基本上，这个方式是根据过去的记录预测未来表现。换句话说，技术分析研究股市本身，不是影响它的外在因素；而股价和成交量是它最常用的数据。

    技术分析的支持者认为，影响股价的消息没有立即反映在股价上。举例说，一家公司的好消息并不是每个人都同时知道的，而是从一人传到另一个，整个过程需要一段时间。越来越多人知道这好消息后会买进，
而越来越少的人愿意卖掉，这么一来使股价逐步升高。股价会因此继续上升直到供应与需求的平衡出现变化。

    但对技术分析员来说，他并不需要知道那好消息是什么，走势图将告诉他股价会起还是落。他也不需知道公司的基础因素，对他来说，基础会随着股价上升而改善。他们相信历史会重演，可从过去的股价走势推测它将来的表现。

    另一方面，基础分析则研究所有可能影响股价的因素，以确定股票的实际价值。如果市价低过实值，就值得买进。基础分析员研究资产与负债表的项目、企业管理层、业务展望和盈利潜能，再根据资产与负债表和损益表提供的数据计算而得的比例，判断这家公司的财力和盈利趋势。分析员也会与公司的管理层会面，了解它的业务以及有关公司和行业的最新发展。

    本益比是基础分析中最常用的比例，计算方式是股价除每股盈利。一般上，低本益比表示股票便宜。 不过，这个准则有时不太好用。两家公司从事相同的业务，才能够比较它们的本益比；不同行业的公司，本益比通常是不一样的。举例说，以新加坡电信在电信业的地位，它的本益比会较其他公司高。

    对于每个行业的本益比应是多少，分析员们到目前为止还没有定论，而且也没有计算正确本益比的方式。 技术分析和基础分析都尝试预测股价今后的走势。它们的做法虽然不一样，但都尽可能帮助投资者以合适的价格买入有增值潜能的股票。不过，它们都只能提高可能性，而不能保证成功。有些人认为，基础分析较适合用于选择股票，而技术分析则适用于决定买入的时机和价格。 

    对专业投资者来说，他们还必须决定分析的步骤。这将影响投资者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。基本上，他们决定市场的整体走势还是公司本身对股价的影响比较大。这两个因素都会影响股价，但程度可能不同。

    从上至下的方法侧重于整体市场。它首先决定哪个市场能带来较高的回报，然后再选择具投资展望的行业和属于这一行业的公司。这是个系统化的股票分析方式，认为经济和行业是决定股票回报的重要因素。

    而从下至上的选择股票方式，无视市场和行业因素，重点是选择市值低于股值的股票，认为公司本身是决定回报的最重要因素。

    哪个方式能带来较高的回报，并没任何研究证明。最重要的是投资者懂得所选择方式的优缺点，并尝试使用。

Part 3 Something about Stock 关于股票 

Dialogue Script 1  对话原文 1 

Julia: Would you tell me something about stock?
Mike: Sure, what do you want me to start with?
Julia: Uhh, you can start with the explanation of some temp3s like "a bull " and "a bear ".
Mike: OK. A bull is a situation in which share prices are rising.
Julia: What about a bear, then?
Mike: A bear is a situation in which share prices keep falling.
Julia: Oh, I see. But why the prices get rising or falling?
Mike: If there are more buyers, the price will rise. Otherwise, the price will be lower and lower.
Julia: How can we make money in the stock market?
Mike: If you believe the market will go up, you can buy in or hang on. If it turns out to be true, you can make your profit.
Julia: I heard that some people can earn money out of a bear market. How do they win in such a situation?
Mike: If you believe the market will fall down, you can sell out your shares and then buy back at a lower price. The price difference is your profit.
Julia: It sounds easy to make money from stock investment.
Mike: Not at all. When you really invest in stock market, you'll get involved into the whole world.
Julia: What do you mean by that?
Mike: To decide which share you'll buy in is quite hard sometimes. You have to consider the market tendency; the growth of the company and you'd better know something about technical analysis.
Julia: So boring it is. I'd better invest in some fixed interest fields.
Mike: Certainly you can. You won't suffer from the risks. But your wallet will suffer.
Julia: What should I do?
Mike: If you really want to invest in stock, perhaps you should find a broker.

讲解：

1. 对话中，Mike给Julia讲了一些关于股票和股票市场的知识，我们来从头看一看。首先是“牛市”和“熊市”这两个概念，“牛市”就是“a bull market”，bull是“公牛”的意思。“牛市”就是指“股价上涨的股市”。 “熊市”，a bear market，就是指“股价不断下跌的股市”。

2. start with sth 这个词组表示“以某件事物作为开始”，比如说，You can start with your self-introduction，你可以从自我介绍开始。同时，to start with还可以表示“第一，首先”，比如说，To start with we haven't got enough money, and secondly we're too busy. 一来是我们的钱不够，二来我们没有时间。

3. 另外，to start with还有“起初，开始”的意思，比如说，The company had only 10,000 dollars to start with. 这家公司最初的投资只有1万美元。关于start 还有一个在口语中很常用的表达方式，就是start something，表示“惹事，热麻烦，闯祸”，比如说，You shouldn't have spoken to him like that - you've really started something now. 你真不应该和他那样说话，这下你可闯祸了。

4. 那么股价为什么会有涨有跌呢？股票价格上涨，share prices are rising. 那么股票价格下跌呢，share prices keep falling。Mike解释说，如果买的人多了，这支股票的价格就会上涨，否则，股价就会越来越低。Julia又问，怎么样能在股市上赚钱呢？这是所有在股市投资的人都关心的问题了。

5. Mike说If you believe the market will go up, you can buy in or hang on. If it turns out to be true, you can make your profit. 如果你相信股价会上涨，你可以买进或者持股不动，如果股价真的上涨了，这时候再把手里的股票卖掉，就可以赚钱了。hang on这个词组可以表示“紧握着”， 比如说，We should hang on to the shares until their prices are higher. 在股票价格升高之前，我们应当尽力保住这些股票。再举一个例子，Hang on to the strap. The bus is starting. 抓住皮带，汽车要开动了。同时hang on也是一种电话用语，意思是“别挂断”， 比如说，Hang on a minute; I'm coming. 请稍等一下，我马上就来。make a profit on sth表示“在…获利”，跟make a fortune on sth这个词组差不多。

6. Julia还听说有些人在熊市也能获利，他们是怎么做的呢？Mike解释说，如果你认为股市会下跌，你卖出股票，然后再以较低的价格买回，其中的差价就是你的利润。price difference就是指“差价”。这应该很好理解吧。所以Julia觉得在股市赚钱好像很容易。make money from sth这个词组就表示“从…赚钱”，比如说，He made some money from selling newspaper.他卖报纸赚了一些钱。

7. Mike说在股市上赚钱绝没有听起来那么容易。因为如果你在股市投了资，你也就卷入了整个世界。为什么会这么说呢？What do you mean by that? 也就是What do you mean by saying that? 因为要决定买哪一只股票有时相当困难，你要考虑市场的走势，公司的发展，而且最好还要懂一些技术分析。不是光凭运气就可以的。

8. Julia听了这些就觉得很无聊了，因为她对这些一窍不通，所以她打算搞一些固定利率方面的投资吧，风险会小一点。不过这样的话，Julia钱包就要受苦了，因为这些固定利率方面的投资回报都很少，不像在股市上那样利润丰厚。所以，在赚更多的钱的同时，也要承受更大的风险。Mike建议Julia如果真的想在股市投资的话，就去找一个经纪人，帮助她都资。股票经纪人就是broker。

Dialogue Script 2  对话原文 2 

Julia: Hello, can I speak to Mr. Smith?
Smith: Yes, speaking.
Julia: This is Julia speaking. I'd like to buy a stock.
Smith: What stock do you want to buy and how many?
Julia: I want to buy 1000 shares of Dubon. Smith: Let me get the asking price of the stock. Just a moment. Oh, now the asking price is $80 each share. By the way, what is the offering price?
Julia: Let me see. The offering price is near or at $78.
Smith: Then the difference between the asking price and the offering price is $2. It's hard to take place today.
Julia: Do you mean that I have to buy at current price?
Smith: You can decide by yourself.
Julia: I heard that this stock would go up. Hmm, I will take it at current price.
Smith: So, now I will buy in. Are you sure?
Julia: Yes, please.

讲解：

1. 对话中Julia经人介绍，找到了股票经纪人史密斯先生。Julia说她想买股票，Smith问她，要买哪一支呢？要买多少呢？What stock do you want to buy and how many?

2. Julia说想买1000股的杜邦股票。share这里的意思是“股，股份”，比如说，$2 of shares are not worth $2.75. 2美元的股份现在值2.75美元，看来是升值了。

3. Smith要先查一下现在的卖出价是多少，就是the asking price of the stock. 相对的the offering price 就是买进价。现在Julia要买进的股票的卖出价是80美元每股，那Julia能承受的买进价是多少呢？

4. 大概在78美元左右。卖出价和买入价的价差是两美元，看来今天是无法成交了。那么只能现价买入了吗？buy at certain price，意思是“以某种价格购买某物”。take place 这个词组表示“发生，举行”。

5. 买还是不买，就看Julia自己决定了。她觉得这支股票的价格会上涨，应该会赚一笔，所以还是决定以现价买入了。这样Smith就帮她买入了，就是buy in。