中国经济的增长--经济学泰勒斯

Finance & economics

财经板块

China’s growth (2) The Thales of economics

中国经济的增长（第二部分）--经济学泰勒斯

By one measure, China is the world’s most dominant economy

从某种角度来说，中国是世界上最具主导地位的经济体

IN 2010, WHEN President Barack Obama welcomed his Chinese counterpart to a summit in Washington, DC, he greeted him with a handshake and a swift, shallow dip of the head.

2010年，当美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)在华盛顿特区举行的峰会上欢迎中国领导人时，他与中国领导人握了握手，并快速点头以示欢迎。

The image of America’s president bowing before China made an arresting cover photo for the book “Eclipse”, published the following year.

美国总统在中国领导人面前鞠躬的照片成为了次年出版的《Eclipse》一书的封面图。

The book, written by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think-tank, predicted that China would soon come to dominate the world economy and that America could do precious little about it.

这本由华盛顿智库彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)撰写的书籍预测，中国很快将主宰世界经济，而美国对此无能为力。

Your correspondent once included the cover image in a presentation at the Central Party School in Beijing.

本报记者曾在北京中央党校的一次演讲中刊登过这张封面图片。

It caused quite a frisson.

引起了相当大的震动。

To gauge a country’s economic “dominance” Mr Subramanian combined its share of world trade, net capital exports and global GDP (measured at both market exchange rates and purchasing-power parities, which try to correct for international differences in the price of similar goods).

为了衡量一个国家的经济“主导地位”，萨勃拉曼尼亚综合考量了其在世界贸易中所占的份额、净资本出口和全球GDP(以市场汇率和购买力平价衡量，这两项指标是为了尽量修正相似商品的国际价格差异)。

He gave each attribute a weight loosely based on the IMF’s formula for allocating votes to its members.

他根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)给成员国分配投票权的公式，粗略地给每个因素赋予了权重。

His index, he argued, successfully captured Britain’s economic hegemony in 1870, its rivalry with Germany in 1913 and its eclipse by America in the subsequent decade.

他认为，他的指数成功描述了1870年英国的经济霸权，1913年英国与德国的竞争关系，以及随后十年中英国逐渐被美国所替代。

According to this measure, Mr Subramanian predicted, China would become the world’s most dominant economy by 2020.

萨勃拉曼尼亚预测，按照这一衡量标准，到2020年，中国将成为世界上最具主导地位的经济体。

In the ten years since that forecast, China has faced a trade war with America, its growth has slowed and its currency has suffered bouts of volatility, obliging it to tighten controls on capital outflows.

自这一预测后的十年里，中国面临着与美国的贸易战，其经济增长放缓，人民币遭受了一轮又一轮的波动，迫使它加强了对资本外流的控制。

Yet Mr Subramanian’s central prediction has come true.

然而，萨勃拉曼尼亚的核心预测已经成为现实。

Based on the book’s original formula, China became the world’s most dominant economy last year.

根据这本书的原始公式，中国去年成为了世界上最具主导地位的经济体。

Its growth slowdown has been no worse (so far) than Mr Subramanian expected and the covid-19 pandemic has helped increase its share of global trade.

它的增长放缓(到目前为止)并没有比萨勃拉曼尼亚预期的更糟，而新冠肺炎疫情帮助提高了它在全球贸易中的份额。

Mr Subramanian successfully predicted how his own index would evolve.

萨勃拉曼尼亚成功预测了自己的指数将如何发展。

But does his index successfully capture economic dominance?

但他的指数是否能成功描述经济主导地位呢?

Other authors have included wealth, GDP per person and other proxies for economic sophistication, as well as scale.

其他作者还囊括了财富、人均GDP和其他衡量经济成熟度和规模的指标。

(Our favourite index of a country’s global influence, put together by Francesc Pujol of the University of Navarra, counts the number of times a country appears in the charts of The Economist.)

(我们最喜欢的一个国家全球影响力指数是由纳瓦拉大学的Francesc Pujol编制的，计算的是一个国家出现在《经济学人》图表上的次数。)

These measures give America a bigger edge.

这些数据表明美国有更大的优势。

For the sake of tractability, Mr Subramanian’s measure gives every dollar of exports equal weight.

为了便于处理，萨勃拉曼尼亚先生给了每一美元的出口相同的权重。

But some of America’s high-tech exports appear to give it an economic “chokehold” over China that is worth more than their market value.

但美国的一些高科技出口似乎让中国有一种经济“扼杀”感，其价值超过了它们的市场价值。

Mr Subramanian thought that China’s growing share of GDP and trade could soon elevate its currency into a rival to the dollar.

萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，中国日益增长的GDP和贸易份额可能很快就会将人民币提升为美元的竞争对手。

But China’s yuan has made little headway.

但中国的人民币进展甚微。

That is partly because China has tightened capital controls, a possibility that Mr Subramanian acknowledged.

这在一定程度上是因为中国收紧了资本管制，萨勃拉曼尼亚曾承认有这种可能性。

But he thought that if China clung to such controls it would be to keep the yuan cheap (by preventing capital inflows) not to prop the yuan up (by deterring capital outflows).

但他认为，如果中国坚持采用这样的管制，那它会(通过阻止资本流入)保持人民币的低价值，而不是(通过阻止资本外流)来提升人民币的价值。

Still, given the sorry record of most economic predictions, the book’s author deserves a handshake and a bow.

尽管如此，鉴于大多数经济预测都以失败告终，这本书的作者值得人们向其致敬。