油价一直涨你还承受得住吗？(下)

James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, studies historical oil shocks and finds that a 20% rise in the real price of energy is associated with a 15-point drop in an index of consumer confidence.

加州大学圣地亚哥分校的詹姆斯·汉密尔顿研究了历史上的石油冲击，发现实际能源价格上涨20%，消费者信心指数下降15个百分点。

(A gauge of American sentiment collected by the University of Michigan has fallen by nearly 17 points since April 2021.)

(密歇根大学收集的美国人情绪指标自2021年4月以来下降了近17个百分点。）

An energy-induced slump could be mitigated if consumers meet higher bills by drawing on savings.

如果消费者通过储蓄来支付更高的账单，能源引发的衰退可能会得到缓解。

By the end of 2020, households across large rich economies had accumulated “excess”, or above-normal, savings equivalent to more than 6% of GDP.

到2020年底，各大发达国家的家庭积累“超额”或高于正常水平的储蓄，相当于GDP的6%以上。

Nonetheless, analysts at Goldman reckon that costly energy will reduce the growth rate of consumption in America by 0.4 percentage points this year, and by 0.5 points in 2022.

尽管如此，高盛的分析师估计，昂贵的能源将使美国今年的消费增长率下降0.4个百分点，2022年下降0.5个百分点。

Those inclined to see the petrol tank as half full may note that slower consumption growth could help ease strains on supply chains, which have been stressed by especially strong demand for durable goods.

那些倾向于认为油箱已经半满的人（乐观派）可能会注意到，消费增长放缓可能有助于缓解供应链的压力，供应链一直受到耐用品需求特别强劲的压力。

Those who grumble that it is half empty may worry that power cuts in places like China could result in still more shortages.

那些抱怨它一半是空的人（悲观派）可能会担心，像中国这样的地方的停电可能会导致更多的电力短缺。

Crucially, the toll of the shock will depend on how central banks respond.

至关重要的是，冲击造成的损失将取决于各国央行如何应对。

Fuel prices tend to feed through to households’ expectations of inflation.

燃料价格往往会影响到家庭对通胀的预期。

That will be unwelcome news for central bankers, who are already worrying about high inflation.

对于已经在担心高通胀的央行来说，这将是一个不好的消息。

Research by Mr Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou, also of the Dallas Fed, suggests that energy prices mainly influence short-term expectations, rather than those further out.

基利安和同样来自达拉斯联邦储备银行的周晓青的研究表明，能源价格主要影响短期预期，而不是长远预期。

Those expectations could adjust just as quickly when energy prices fall.

当能源价格下跌时，这些预期也会迅速调整。

Some central banks, such as the Bank of England, may nevertheless worry that the energy shock worsens the risk that inflation expectations become unmoored from their targets.

尽管如此，英国央行等一些央行可能仍会担心，能源冲击加剧了通胀预期偏离目标的风险。

But the dilemma is that, if they overreact, they depress consumption further and induce deflationary pressure, just as energy prices return to earth.

但两难的是，如果他们反应过度，进一步抑制消费，会引发通缩压力，就像能源价格回落一样。

The longer prices stay high, the more their effects evolve.

遗憾的是，燃料价格居高不下的时间越长，其影响就越大。

Households and firms will become better able to reduce their exposure to energy.

家庭和企业将能够更好地减少能源消耗。

Indeed, work by John Hassler, Per Krusell and Conny Olovsson of the Institute for International Economic Studies in Stockholm suggests that costly energy affects the nature of innovation.

事实上，斯德哥尔摩国际经济研究所的约翰·哈斯勒、佩尔·克鲁塞尔和康尼·奥洛夫松的研究表明，昂贵的能源会影响创新的本质。

Firms direct inventive efforts so as to economise on scarce inputs.

公司会增加创造性的付出，以减少稀缺资源的投入。

When energy is abundant, they focus on capital- or labour-saving innovation.

当能源充足时，他们专注于节约资本或劳动力的创新。

When energy is scarce, by contrast, firms do more to improve the energy-efficiency of production, and innovation suffers—as it did in the 1970s.

相反，当能源匮乏时，企业会采取更多措施来提高生产的能效，而创新则会受到影响，就像在20世纪70年代所做的那样。

The extent to which history repeats, however, also depends on what governments do.

然而，历史重演的程度也取决于政府的行动。

They could shield customers from higher energy prices, which would be politically popular but delay the moment of transition from dirty fuels.

它们可以保护客户免受更高的能源价格的影响，这在政治上是受欢迎的，但会推迟高污染燃料的转型。

Or they could encourage more investment in renewable-power capacity, so that energy constraints bind less.

或者，他们可以鼓励对可再生能源发电能力的更多投资，从而减少能源限制。

Such bold action could end the threat posed by expensive coal, gas and oil, once and for all.

这种大胆的行动可以一劳永逸地结束昂贵的煤炭、天然气和石油带来的威胁。