航空公司的“常客价值”大到难以想象

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Frequent-flyer schemes

常客计划

Lifting off

起飞

Loyalty programmes have been a lifeline for airlines

忠诚计划已经成为航空公司的命脉

WHEN EXECUTIVES at American Airlines unveiled the world's first frequent-flyer programme 40 years ago, they probably didn't imagine it would one day be worth more than the airline itself.

40年前，当美国航空公司的高管们推出世界上第一个常客计划时，他们可能没有想到这个计划有一天会比航空公司本身更值钱。

Last year analysts valued the scheme at around $18bn-30bn, eclipsing the company's current market capitalisation of $12.9bn.

去年，分析师对该计划的估值约为180亿至300亿美元，超过了该公司目前129亿美元的市值。

Such programmes have proved a boon to American carriers in the pandemic.

事实证明，在疫情期间，这样的计划对美国的航空公司大有裨益。

Firms including American Airlines have raised $30bn in debt backed by the schemes.

在这些计划的支持下，包括美国航空在内的公司共筹集了300亿美元的债务性融资。

Airlines once hoped simply to foster loyalty by offering customers freebies.

航空公司曾只是希望通过提供免费赠品来培养顾客的忠诚度。

Passengers collected miles as they travelled and were awarded a free flight once they racked up enough of them.

乘客们在旅途中累积里程，一旦累积了足够的里程数，就可以获得一次免费飞行机会。

But schemes today are far more sophisticated.

但如今这些计划变得更加复杂。

Airlines profit by selling miles to credit-card firms at a price that exceeds the cost of providing reward flights and dishing out other perks, such as hotel stays.

航空公司通过向信用卡公司出售里程而获利，其售价超过了提供奖励航班和提供其他额外津贴（如酒店住宿）的成本。

They also gain when miles expire unused or are cashed in for something of poor value.

他们还可以通过里程到期未使用或兑换一些不值钱的东西而获利。

According to McKinsey, a consultancy, 15-30% of miles expired unused before the pandemic.

根据咨询公司麦肯锡的数据，在疫情之前，有15-30%的里程是到期未使用的。

Credit-card issuers in turn use miles to lure customers with bonuses.

信用卡发卡机构反过来用里程来吸引顾客。

Airline-affiliated cards tend to rake in much more in transactions a year than other cards.

与其他卡相比，航空联名卡每年的交易收入往往比其他卡要高得多。

Many miles are therefore earned not in the air, but through card spending on the ground.

因此，许多里程不是在空中飞行获得的，而是通过在地面刷卡消费获得的。

That explains why customers earned $6.8bn-worth of miles across big loyalty schemes in 2020, even as many kept to their homes.

这就解释了为什么人在家中，但客户在2020年的大型忠诚计划中仍获得了价值68亿美元的里程。

If they were to rush to convert those miles into free flights as travel takes off again, the profitability of such schemes would be jeopardised.

如果旅行重启，消费者们急于将这些里程兑换成免费航班，那么这类计划的盈利将受到损害。

But airlines have another way to ensure that their programmes stay profitable: they can deflate the value of their miles.

但航空公司还有其他的办法来保证他们的项目能够获利：他们可以降低里程的价值。

In the early 2010s American airlines began to calculate the value of a mile based on a complex formula of fares and routes.

在2010年代早期，美国航空公司就开始根据票价和航线的复杂公式来计算里程的价值。

In 2015 Delta Air Lines stopped disclosing how the value of its miles was calculated and embarked on a series of devaluations, prompting competitors to follow.

2015年达美航空不再公开里程价值的计算方式，并且开始了一系列的贬值行为，促使竞争对手效仿。

In the past year or so Delta, Southwest and United have devalued miles on major routes by 6-20%.

在过去的一年里，达美航空、西南航空和联合航空将主要航线的里程贬值了6-20%。

Airlines have tapped loyalty schemes for cash before, by selling miles to credit-card firms at discounted rates.

航空公司曾利用忠诚计划来套现，将飞行里程打折卖给信用卡公司。

United traded its miles with JPMorgan Chase, a bank, for $600m in the financial crisis.

在金融危机期间，联合航空以6亿美元的价格将里程卖给摩根大通银行。

But the pandemic saw the first use of loyalty programmes as collateral in America, says Benjamin Metzger of Barclays, another bank.

另一家银行巴克莱的Benjamin Metzger说，在疫情期间，忠诚计划首次在美国用作抵押品。

United was the first to do so with a secured loan in June 2020. Delta followed with a bond offering soon after.

2020年6月，联合航空率先以常客计划担保获得了贷款。达美航空随后，发行了债券。

The deals have attracted more investors than bonds secured by old aircraft (which, unlike loyalty schemes, depreciate).

这些交易比用旧飞机担保的债券能吸引更多的投资者（与忠诚度计划不同，旧飞机会贬值）。

Scheme-backed debt tends to boast a better credit rating than the airline issuing it.

常客计划背书的债券往往比发行它的航空公司拥有更好的信用评级。

And investors are comforted by the structure of the deals, which use the schemes' cash flows to repay debt, and limit risk if an airline goes bust.

而且，这些交易的结构也让投资者感到欣慰，这些交易利用计划的现金流来偿还债务，且能够降低航空公司的破产风险。

Affinity Capital Exchange, a fintech firm, is working with JPMorgan to securitise air miles, so that they can be more easily traded.

亲和资本交易（一家金融科技公司）正与摩根大通合作，将航空里程证券化，以便更容易地进行交易。

The trick for airlines in all this is to balance the costs and benefits of perks so that customers stay engaged, while carriers' margins are preserved.

对于航空公司来说，这一切的诀窍在于平衡津贴的成本和收益，以便在保持公司利润的同时，留住顾客。

Endless devaluations could rattle that equilibrium and upset securitisation arrangements.

无休止的贬值可能会打破这种平衡，打乱证券化准备计划。

Sky-high valuations are not assured.

不太可能有过高的价值。